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Daniel_Doyce

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Posts posted by Daniel_Doyce

    Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

    in Everything Else

    Posted

    3 hours ago, jonebone said:

    I can't take you seriously if you think GME is a known death event and then think Cruise liners are a great buy right now.  

    Let me put it another way, some of these Cruise liners will go bankrupt if there are not Govt bailouts handed to them in the future like automakers in the great recession.  You can make money on anything if you are extremely savvy with technicals and playing bounces (99.9% of us are not), but I would not be going long in the Cruise industry.

    Consumer preferences are going to change forever going forward.  Google the average age of a Cruise Ship passenger, it says 46.7 years old.  And who's the most scared of this virus at the moment?  Older people.  Those people won't be thinking about cruises for years, if ever again period.  Consumer preferences are going to be changed forever on cruise lines. 

    We can agree to disagree, especially about using technical analysis and playing bounces. That's just day trade type gambling.

    I'm not dumping my entire portfolio into a single stock, just interested in taking on more diversification and risk in my portfolio.

    A point estimate of average cruise ship passenger age is pretty meaningless. Is that average increasing / decreasing / stable over time? Strongly disagree that the geezers will stop taking cruises long term or that this will change the industry. This sort of crisis has happened to the industry multiple times and it always bounces back after a few months. Only real threat here is a bankruptcy.

    Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

    in Everything Else

    Posted

    4 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

    There is almost no way they aren't a dividend-trap at this point.

    They are going to have a terrible year along with the entire hospitality industry.

    But at least hotels are essential for business travel, once that picks back up -- but cruises are a totally unnecessary purchase.

    Eh, I don't think this is a GME-type scenario, where the death event is known but the timing is uncertain. Again, a lot of the negative results for the next 2 years have been priced in by the 60-70% decline so far. If CCL cuts their div or gets below 10, I'll seriously consider it.

    Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

    in Everything Else

    Posted

    JB:

    I'm waiting for the dividend to be cut. I think a "long way to go" is debatable if you believe in the EMH at all, and I give most analysts little credence. Good look at seekingalpha and you'll see completely different analyses of the same stock.

    I already have a substantial portfolio of stocks with less Beta. This is a good time to take on some risk. If I don't get the absolute bottom on some of these stocks, I'll still do pretty well.

    Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

    in Everything Else

    Posted · Edited by Daniel_Doyce
    grammar

    4 hours ago, jonebone said:

    I think everyone is watching those, same thing with parks like SIX (flags) too.  They all seem too attractive but don't want to catch the falling knife.  We're no where near peak coronavirus panic nor ripple effects of oil price wars.  Things are long overdue to get bad. 

    I think the oil crisis is mostly priced in, and the coronavirus is actually priced much more pessimistically than reality. I'll call this close to a bottom and will be pleasantly surprised and happy to buy more at an even lower price if I'm wrong.

    Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

    in Everything Else

    Posted

    I thought we already had one of these that migrated from the NA thread, but maybe I'm remembering one-off potshots at our favorite whipping boy, GME.

    I've been holding off so far, but I'm thinking of taking a few big positions this week. Oil stocks are getting hammered and I see a couple of insurance stocks (my industry) that are way undervalued.

    Anyone else looking to buy? Terrible time to sell, BTW, but I'm sure you guessed that already.

    What Else Do You Collect Besides Video Games?

    in Everything Else

    Posted · Edited by Daniel_Doyce
    added pics

    @Tabonga - a little late to this thread, but have you come across any collectible backgammon paraphernalia? "Collectible" means from the 1930s or before. In addition to the big authentic Bakelite chips, I'm looking for backgammon matches (which are Bakelite matchsticks that came in a set to keep score), backgammon doubling dials, and large Bakelite or unusual doubling cubes.

     

    Edit - added two pics

    doubling matches s-l1600 2.jpg

    doubling matches s-l1600.jpg

    Most embarrassing moment of your life.

    in Everything Else

    Posted

    Man you guys never got caught whackin off by your female roommate or buying porno mags from a cute cashier as an underaged kid or sharting yourself before a presentation or even getting caught in a ridiculous lie by someone you look up to or stuff like that?

    I have lots of embarrassing stories from being drunk but I don't even count those

    Most embarrassing moment of your life.

    in Everything Else

    Posted

    20 hours ago, Wandering Tellurian said:

    I worked for a couple of years at the state (mental) hospital in Yankton, South Dakota.

    There was a really nutso doctor (yeah - sounds oxymoronic given where this was) who the staff referred to as "happy hour" (both as a play on his name and his goofiness) - the first time I met him was while waiting in line (with two ladies who also worked on the same ward) at the cafeteria.  Someone tapped me on my shoulder and asked me what the difference was between a battleship and a pregnant woman.  WTF - anyway it was this goofy doctor.

    I worked the swing shift and one of the duties that rotated (largely on which wards were best staffed that evening) was to drive a van to do errands (pick up clients who had part time jobs, workshops or whatever in town.  And to pick up walkaways - who would leave the grounds without permission - they usually headed for a bar/motel* within walking distance and the  managers would call us and let us know they had someone they suspected as coming from there.  No big deal as they never caused any problem and they were quickly retrieved.

    One night I had this duty and got a call about 6 pm to go to the bar since they had someone they thought problematic - except that none of the wards were missing anyone so the front office had no idea what was going on.  But they asked me to check it out anyway.

    So I drive over there and there was "happy hour".  So I had to explain to the manager that "no, he wasn't a patient but one of our doctors" and that I really couldn't take him back with me.  The only saving grace was that I had gone to college with the manager (we had shared some good times together) so it wasn't as bad as it could have been telling that to a total stranger. 

    There are 8 million stories in the Naked City - this was one of them.  What is yours?

    *As an unrelated (but historically interesting) aside, the bar/hotel was located where the tree that was used to hang Jack McCall (the assassin of Wild Bill Hickock)  in 1877 once stood.

    What was the embarrassing aspect? I could see the doctor perhaps being embarrassed about his behavior but it sounds like he didn't give a rat's ass about what he was doing.

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