Dumars2001

14 minutes ago, OptOut said:

THIS is going to be the most interesting and most telling thing to happen in the coming months and years. There is, as we have now established, PLENTY of copies of Mario 64 sealed in high grades.

With this sale out there now, there will be a GLUT of people falling over themselves to SELL into the market. We can guess, based on this sale (and ASSUMING the bidding was legitimate on the part of all bidders), that there is at least one more person out there willing to bid a copy over 1 million dollars. BUT... What about the 3rd sale? The 4th, 5th, 6th? How many high grade Mario's would have to sell before you ran out of people with a million dollars to spare willing to bid em up?

Are there REALLY more people wanting to BUY Super Mario 64 for a million dollars than there are people who want to SELL it for that much? SOME people in here seem to think that number of people wanting to BUY is high enough to absorb all the high grade copies that we KNOW are out there... I am not so sure and time will tell...

Excellent points! And this is exactly what happened to the PSA 10 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie cards. On January 31st, Goldin Auctions sold two PSA 10 Jordan rookie cards for a record price of $738,000. Well, those 2 sales brought the card out of the woodworks from card collectors that had them and there was literally a Jordan rookie PSA 10 being auctioned off every week all the way up to present day. I believe the PSA 10's are now selling for around $200,000, nothing to sneeze at, but down by over $500,000 in just 7 months time. 

Now, we do know that there are around 325 Jordan PSA 10's according to the pop report, but we don't know exactly how many SM64's are out there and if they are in 9.8 A++ grades (probably equivalent to a PSA 10), but I have to imagine there has to be considerably less than 325, so maybe, just maybe Mario 64 can sustain its value and possibly even go higher. 

4 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

I don’t keep much of anything nice in my house and am pretty well known in the sealed community anyway, so not much hiding I could do if I wanted to. I honestly don’t even think I can personally do much to change that many minds, it will take the buyer coming forth or other buyers in the future. 

Well, I definitely believe you to be 100% credible and transparent. 

14 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

Please do not apologize, what is happening right now in collectibles is objectively insane lol. Trust me, I pinch myself and I don’t understand the extent of my good fortune either. 

Thanks bro for being so understanding. I genuinely am so happy for you and your family. You must be on cloud nine.

I also want to say thank you so much for coming on here and ending all the speculation, falsehoods, innuendos, rumors, conspiracy theories, etc.

It took a lot of guts to come out of the woodworks (and safety of you and your family with people possibly finding out about your new found riches) and take on the Lynch mob (myself included) because you certainly didn't have to (I don't think I would have had the courage to go public) and could have stayed completely anonymous and laughed all the way to the bank with your money in your hand. I am sure I speak for others also. Thank you so much. I think the hobby has/will gain(ed) back the credibility it had lost since that record breaking sale. 

40 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

Some fun…theories in this thread, but the sale is real and being paid for. How do I know? I am the seller. No, I did not shill it up or have anyone else do so. The Zelda was also mine and is being paid for. I didn’t shill that either. 
 

Given where collectibles are, and have been, for the past 24 months, I don’t think it’s terribly shocking Mario 64 could hit a million, though I admit the Mario still went beyond all expectations hitting 1.5. I thought it COULD be the first million dollar game if two people wanted it enough, but 1.5 was beyond my wildest dreams. 
 

In terms of price, just for perspective, PSA 10 Charizards and Jordan rookies go for between 200k and 300k at the moment. There are I believe 122 PSA 10 Charizards and like 325 PSA 10 Jordans. Right now, there are only a few WATA graded 9.8/A++ Mario 64s and maybe you could hit another 6-8 from VGA crosses if they hit perfectly (WATA is harsher on N64 boxes than VGA). So maybe you could get to 10ish with known commodities? That’s nothing in the world of collectibles. 
 

Mario 64 is also arguably the greatest game ever and hits the nostalgia period perfectly for bitcoin-aged folks and many celebs. 
 

Given timing on the market (where it is in growth) and these factors, I am not surprised it was the one to break the million barrier, though again I did not at all think it was a certainty and I never would have anticipated 1.5. 
 

Happy to answer any questions I can :).

Well then, first and foremost a big congratulations to you and your family on this unreal transaction. I do remember you being a member on NA and being a stand up guy.

I guess, I look pretty darn silly now with my conspiracy theories and have to eat crow. My sincere apologies to you and I will be the first one to say sorry to HA and WATA, if this is indeed true.  Coming from you, I do believe it.

On a side note, I just have to say wow! I am completely stunned that these sales are legit sales. I feel like a fool for being so wishy washy (back and forth with my thinking), so my sincere apologies to everybody for that. I really was just baffled by the sale.

33 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

It's as if you literally pulled the exact thoughts going through my head out and articulated them much better than I ever could lol. 

I think you are spot on. I think the amounts of money in play here are raising some serious eyebrows and folks are taking a deeper look into things. I have always been critical of Wata, Heritage, their relationship and the small circle of sealed *speculators* (they are not collectors, let's be real) that have pushed pushed pushed sales. Things do not add up. I am not trying to sound like a conspiracy theorist here. However, we are now in a situation where there will be uninformed people actually falling for the manipulated sales and believing everything that they see. They will get duped and lose big. These are people that probably cannot afford to take such financial losses. 

The whole argument to look at comic and art prices etc. is bogus too. Those markets have been established and maturing for years and years. A Super Mario 64 going from $10-15k to $1.6M in 7 months SCREAMS fraud and manipulation. Nearly every person that defends this crap is heavily invested in the sealed market and are speculating. My $0.02. 

Why do I care so much? Couple reasons. 1. I have a very deep and personal issue with people getting taken advantage of and manipulated. It strikes a chord with me and I am seeing that happen on massive scales. 2. I miss Nintendoage and the special community I found years ago. More than that, I miss when it was about the love for collecting and community. The sale of NA to gocollect and the introduction of Wata were the first dominoes to fall. It hurts me to see it all become about money. 

I totally agree with everything you wrote too and I applaud the empathy you have towards collectors/people in the community losing hundreds, thousand and dare I say millions on buying games. 

I also have this weird feeling inside of me, that if Heritage's system didn't break down and the SM64 in that "original" auction went on as scheduled, it wouldn't have broken the record. I think the head honchos at HA and WATA started to see the social media chatter that, asked the question, "Will the SM64 9.8 be the first million dollar game?" and they collaborated and came to the decision that this was the "one" "the time" to have a  "a million dollar game." Unfortunately for them, they chose the wrong game and the people in the community were 100% onto this all being a complete fraud.

I also feel this whole episode has hurt the sealed game market/true collectors (especially WATA and HA's credibility) because we don't really know what is real or artificial anymore.

I will just say again that this is my personal opinion and I could be 100% wrong (and these sales are all real) Disclaimer: I don't want to be sued by anyone or corporation for defamation.)

It looks like with this "record sale," Heritage Auctions (and maybe WATA's connection to them) has finally pushed the envelope too far and that is the reason they have come under extreme heavy scrutiny now more than ever before. (that I can recall)

This may be the beginning of the downfall. Greed may have finally caught up to them. If the SM64 would have sold for, let's say 100K, people wouldn't be looking at everything through a microscope, which is now what is happening. Did Heritage and WATA finally shoot themselves in the foot?

I am just speculating here of course, but this sale definitely has opened up a whole new can of worms (detective work) and has everyone in the community dissecting every thing that is going on at Heritage and their connection to WATA (present & past). Just my 2 cents on the matter.

I often buy things from the states and have them shipped to Taiwan without a problem. I check the tracking number once in awhile to see the parcel's progress (USPS Priority Airmail with full tracking), but it has said the following below since July 9th (I know not a long time) but I am perplexed by the last update saying Customs Clearance. Mind you, that this is for an outbound package and in all the years of buying stuff from the states (literally hundreds of packages), I have never seen the words "Held in Customs" or Customs Clearance when I check the tracking number for an outbound package. Does this mean that it is still being held in customs or it has been cleared? And if it has been cleared, why no more updates since July 9th?

Has anyone else ever experienced this? Do you think that it is currently being held in Customs and if yes, why? Is thus normal? Any past experience or information would be greatly appreciated. thanks. Anyways, here is what the tracking says below:

I also collect vintage Starwars and and below are some of the most expensive items that have ever sold since Starwars came out in 1977. As you can see, we are talking about some items that only 1 exist in the world and some of the items only probably less than 3 to 10 exist in the world, but these game sales recently have basically obliterated these prices that have taken almost 45 years to build up to. That Mario 64 could have bought all the items below and still have almost $300,000 hundred thousand dollars to spare to buy up even more rare and priceless Starwars items. The whole situation is really perplexing to say the least.

This is from a website that I found:

George Lucas’ Episode IV  Panavision Camera ($625,000)

Luke Skywalker’s Episode IV lightsaber ($240,000)

Chewbacca film-ready head ($172,200)

Boba Fett Figures (Up to $50,000)

Vlix Action Figure Mint on Card ($58,888.80)

Jawa with Vinyl Cape($10,000+)

Marvel Comics Star Wars #1 (1977) 35 Cent Variant($11,000)

Han Solo With Little Head And Blaster($4,000+)

Obi-Wan, Darth Vader, Luke Skywalker with Double Telescoping Lightsaber($22,500)

Carded Starwars 20 back Rocket Launcher Boba Fett $150,000

32 minutes ago, OptOut said:

Indeed, there is no "fair market price" at this present time for pretty much any sealed/graded HA level video game. That "market", as it currently functions, is ENTIRELY irrational and speculative, and so there is no such thing as true market value for any of those items.

I'm not even NECESSARILY saying those recent sales are overpriced (although obviously I believe they are), because the next one that comes up for sale could hit THREE MILLION DOLLARS and it would seem no less ridiculous to me than what we just witnessed.

That copy of Mario 64 may have sold for 1.5 million, but it doesn't make it or any equivalent copy "worth" that much, until the market stabilises and we have seen those sales upheld over time. Lets face it, the next one that comes up could just as easily sell for 3 million, HIT 5 million, or fall back to 1 million or 500,000. I honestly wouldn't be surprised at ANY of those outcomes, because the whole situation makes zero rational sense.

I really like your assessment. It is very logical thinking. I think you 100% hit it on the dot.

7 minutes ago, Gloves said:

That's not Mario! 

Hahaha! Correct, but it is Daniel San and Mr. Miyagi!!

This definitely undersold. The Karate Kid VGA 85 black seal for $6,000

https://www.ebay.com/itm/224529561585?hash=item34470137f1%3Ag%3AcU8AAOSw59hg6iYq&nma=true&si=mdOX%2BnMVPOWLIXF1d8vkNA2fV34%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

isn't this a bargain these days?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/124807338501?epid=56249257&hash=item1d0f18da05:g:HXYAAOSwMp9g6ypm&autorefresh=true

I think a lot of us are perplexed like this guy.

1 hour ago, jonebone said:

I have a 90+ and was getting 75k offers unsolicited in January. I agree the price may seem crazy but I've been saying for years nostalgia drives prices. The N64 is too new argument is no longer valid. 

A big congratulations to you!

Do you plan on selling it, cross grading to WATA (and sending it to HA), or keeping it? 

I am absolutely shell-shocked by what just happened. SM64 is now the highest selling video game of all time! Just nuts to me. Main stream media/Social media is all over this sale already, which will only enflame the hobby more and bring more people/collectors/"investors" into the hobby. 

4 hours ago, Gulag Joe said:

I called it!

You should be taking the first flight to Vegas! You are on fire!

13 hours ago, Gulag Joe said:

Which title do you think will hit a million dollars? Will we see it in this auction? I think Super Mario 64 9.8 A++ has a chance.

Well, you may be right after all! The SM64 is now at $396,000 with 15 hours to go. 

49 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

Which title do you think will hit a million dollars? Will we see it in this auction? I think Super Mario 64 9.8 A++ has a chance.

I also think the Mario 64 is going to go for a huge amount, but I don't see it surpassing the Zelda that just sold. If I had to say what game breaks the million dollar barrier, I am going to have to say an early print/high grade Nes Super Mario Bros will be the first game to go over a million.

1 hour ago, jonebone said:

You also have to realize that people go in with each other sometimes, or that there are new companies that sell fractional sales of collectibles.

Not saying it'd be "easy", but one of those companies could buy that Zelda for $870k and then list it for $1M with fractional shares, say $100 a piece for 10,000 owners.  I bet those shares would sell out in a day, then the "market cap" on it is $1M.  The company who bought it gets back their investment and some and gets to pump it to the moon.

The sealed graded market on key titles is likely never cooling off.  What typically happens is one of these signature auctions goes off and everything close to relevant gets bought off ebay and then it cools for a bit until next signature auction.  I really thought some of these sales would underperform due to summer time lull and post-covid reopening but if that didn't do it then nothing will.

Spoken like a pro as usual.

2 hours ago, Hammerfestus said:

My lucky day:)!!!!

I looked back at some previous Heritage Auction sales and there were so many unbelievable/massive price increases of games sold during yesterday's auction (and some from only back in April this year) of the same game and in most/some cases a lower grade of the same game, out selling a previous higher graded same titled game (Some by 5 or even 6 figures more in $$$'s)

This comparison (out of many) obviously takes the cake though!

Nes Zelda Rev A round Seal WATA 9.0 sold on November 22nd for $19,200 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/video-games/the-legend-of-zelda-rev-a-round-soq-carolina-collection-wata-90-a-sealed-nes-nintendo-1987-usa/a/7212-93027.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

Nes Zelda No Rev A round Seal WATA 9.0 sold (yesterday) on July 9th for $870.000

https://comics.ha.com/itm/video-games/the-legend-of-zelda-wata-90-a-sealed-no-rev-a-round-soq-early-production-nes-nintendo-1987-usa/a/7261-28030.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

Is a Non Rev A copy worth $851,000 more than an exact graded 9.0 Rev A copy or has the market gone completely bonkers?!

We might look back (or prices could come back crashing to Earth) at yesterday's prices in a year from now and think the prices were low/a bargain after Heritage House's next Signature Auction next spring, if this trend continues.

27 minutes ago, OptOut said:

Oh my God, your opinion is gonna be worth a whole DOLLAR by tomorrow at this rate, lol! Can I invest in YOU by any chance? 

I know we disagree on this particular matter, but I love your positive energy!  

Hahaha! It is all love brother! We have a great community and a lot of good people in the hobby, especially here on VGS.

I did notice that right after the Zelda on Heritage broke the record yesterday, the VGA 85 water damaged Zelda sold for a mere $25,000.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/174748443948?epid=5733&hash=item28afd1a52c%3Ag%3AtbEAAOSwXmpeuptq&nma=true&si=mdOX%2BnMVPOWLIXF1d8vkNA2fV34%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

3 minutes ago, OptOut said:

 

 

 

Yeah, that's like 6 cents already! Looks like your "humble" opinion is inflating quicker than the graded market itself!

LOL. I just don't want to ruffle any feathers here with my thoughts because I know how sensitive people can be when they don't agree with something. Just tryin to kill'em with kindness, lol. Let me add another 2 cents here:).

39 minutes ago, inasuma said:

While no one can predict the future, one thing is for certain: for the foreseeable future collecting games in good condition, in box with paperwork, will be very difficult. Even worse if you’re after sealed copies.

100% correct sir!