KarateBoy2k3

@TanookiBesides price charting, I’m still looking for a database of transaction prices in 2019 and earlier. 
 

Not every is back to 2019 levels, per NerdMelon, but some things have significantly closed the gap. Forced sellers are my favorite kind of seller. 

Pain train is still chugging along.

Every seller on FB either needs money or bought a lot from someone who needed money and is now selling it in parts.

I need to update my analysis. Looks like market is down ~65% from the peak. For those who like math, that’s the same as down 50% and then another 30%.

Based on a survey, most expect it to fall further too. The speculators/tourists have been crushed. 

22 hours ago, AdamW said:

Yeah, I'd say include the games that were excluded. Let people make their own judgments about what specific sub-sectors are behaving in different ways for whatever reasons. It's hard to justify for e.g. including a Majesco print of Castlevania IV but leaving out the Majesco Mega Man X.

Thanks again for the data, though! It's super interesting.

 

Sure, I'll report later with these included.

23 hours ago, jonebone said:

Hey I work with data for a living too and applaud the effort. Good to see, but I know this isn't an all inclusive population. For example, I won U90 Alien 3 this time for about $1200 that was $2500 last time. Also I won a Starfox Assault 90 last time around $550 that was $700 this time. Not sure what else is missing from the list, and excluding "outliers" here is not fair if being unbiased. You didn't exclude any that bombed...

End of day, analyzing data is easy with time but drawing meaningful conclusions is the more challenging part. My take is that the main consignor is famous for having high grade dupes. This auction showed that many of sales from June were one of multiples, with likely higher or equal grades appearing 3 months from now. Some buyers took notice and prices that had first to market advantage no longer had that.

Lots of great deals and very nice grades, but some head scratchers as well. I'd say it went about as expected overall, no meaningful change in market direction.

Well hello sir! Thanks for taking the time to reply - I am a fan of your work. 
 

You are correct that this list isn’t 100% comprehensive but I do think it’s statistically significant. I leaned into the  general rule of thumb for the Large Enough Sample Condition is that n≥30 (IIRC the sample was n=46). I would also note that your two additional examples broadly reflect the dollar weight averaged decline: you bought two games for $1900 that previously sold for $3050.

That said I’m happy to update the post with additional example to make it more of a data base vs. representative analysis. 
 

I would also LOVE your feedback on my assumed average mark up by VGA grade. I’m relying on the small sample set that is my own experience and I know you’ve been around for years.  

I just got my hands on HA’s Wata sales database and am working on a cross-grade value analysis to complement your prior work. To be clear: my goal is to see at what grade are values about equal between Wata and VGA (not what they would cross grade at).

Do you think your prior cross grade post still holds true a few years later? Or has the grading criteria changed? My observation is that a VGA 85 and 85+ have a very wide range of outcomes when it comes to condition. Probably a very strong 85+ is the best deal on the market, but there are numerous examples (at this auction) of multi-corner poke 85+s that I doubt would hit the “sweet spot” 

54 minutes ago, Gloves said:

The site owner shares the data on their github: https://github.com/marzukia/wata

It's the CSV file "heritage_sales.csv".

Yes! Thank you. 
 

Time to crunch some numbers 

Is there any way anyone can send me the raw data? I want to run my own analysis. I have already reached out to the website owner, but my skill set is limited to statistical analysis, and not the web scraping.

16 minutes ago, Maertens29 said:

Do you mean reach out to Heritage Auctions for data where you mention WATA?  I'm not sure WATA has a public sales record for games (or maybe they do...?)

Yes, typo on my end. I need to speak with HA. 

Hello everyone,

I wanted to share some analysis of the CL auction as initial post. I'm a more recent sealed game collector, but I have some experience with CIB and I'm a long-time gamer. In my day job, I work as an investment analyst - so I like numbers. I tried to note the title variance where possible but I could have missed some.

As a starting point, I did a quick comparison across ~50 titles that were sold in both the June and October auction. I like this analysis because its the same auction company, same games, and very often same grade. For those games with a grade different, I show my value adjustment. I definitely a debate input (and I encourage the debate), but the overall conclusion is unchanged: the market as notable softened since the summer.  With a different set of grade adjustment you can get a more negative (or positive) picture market, but they account for the minority of the inputs.

In general, I would say that there are 3 ways to slice the data:

1. What did the average decline per game on an equal weighted basis? 14%

2. What did the average decline per game on a dollar weighted (so more expensive games carry more weight) basis? 16%

3. What is the median decline (half the sample did worse, half did better) 25%

This analysis excluded 6 games: the 5 Nintendo GBA classics and SNES Majesco since I don't think they are representative of the market and would bias the sample. The output is attached, however. 

Do I have a prediction? Well yes, but its not a strongly held one. My experience with markets leads me to believe that this is a now a momentum driven market and momentum is heading down. You have a lot of people who now own games worth less than market, and they are in it for the money so eventually they'll need to take a loss. Additionally, supply of graded games is likely to increase materially over the next 3-6 months as backlogs clear at Wata and VGA (plus the new entrants). 

I think most people know that Pokemon peaked in April-ish and is probably down 50%. I think this analysis shows that its no longer just Pokemon.

I'm trying to work with Wata to scrap their public data base of game sales and create

1. An index of for market prices over time (think something like S&P 500), including sub-index by franchise.

2. A more mathematical analysis of what 1 grade means for prices. 

3. A JoneBone like comparison of value by cross-grade between Wata and VGA.

If anyone can help me reach out to the right people at Wata, I'd be very happy.

I hope this post kicks off a good discussion!