AdamW | 713 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 There were some sites with a reputation for kinda solid journalism that covered the Mario sale, like Ars Technica. Might be interesting to pitch them on an article about HA/WATA's, ahem, cosy relationship. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frost271 | 22 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 (edited) Knowing that the owners / investors / advisors all partake in auctions from both sides (HA & WATA) makes one question things from an ethical standpoint. It wouldn’t be surprising to hear some time down the road that questionable grades were given out on certain rare titles. The subjective defense will always come into play but what prevents a grader who is involved in the auctions to “subjectively” grade a little harsher on a title they own to ensure they own the better grade? When it comes to this type of money, poor judgements tend to happen. Especially in this hobby historically speaking. Edited April 12, 2021 by Frost271 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearcat-Doug | 5,104 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 11 hours ago, OptOut said: Yeah we talked about it in one of the other threads too. It's all so transparent, but then again that's why a lot of money grubbers choose collectables to exploit... Zero regulations. You try something like this with ACTUAL stocks and financial markets and stuff and they'd be in front of a judge in no time. Thats a good point. It would sure explain a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YOURTURN | 1,256 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 16 hours ago, Shmup said: Holy shit is this real!? How much more corrupt can this company get? Which is one of those reasons why I have been promoting CAS for close to a month now! That, and why I trust HA less than @OptOut trusts Wata. Because at this rate, people are going to buy a "9.0 A" final print copy of Super Mario Bros. for the amount it costs to build this collection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brickman | 3,982 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 5 hours ago, FenrirZero said: Which is one of those reasons why I have been promoting CAS for close to a month now! That, and why I trust HA less than @OptOut trusts Wata. Because at this rate, people are going to buy a "9.0 A" final print copy of Super Mario Bros. for the amount it costs to build this collection. Yeah so crazy when you put it in that perspective. I’d much rather that collection over one of those 4th print left bros Mario getting Luigi off ultra rare A+++++ games. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumars2001 | 164 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 There is no doubt that prices are much higher for graded/sealed games on ebay now, and that there are many new collectors coming into the hobby everyday, but I still don't know what to believe and what is real or not with the prices for some of the games these days. Is it all real or just an illusion?! Below is just one example that has got me baffled by these different price gaps on Ebay and Heritage Auctions. A Sega Genesis Sonic 2 Wata 9.8 just sold for $21,600 (crazy high amount of money for that game!) on April 2nd at Heritage and a Sonic 2 Wata graded 9.4 sold for $5,520 on November 22nd, 2020. Yes, I know that everything in the hobby has supposedly gotten much crazier since late last year, but then I see a Sonic 2 Vga 85+ currently for sale on Ebay for $5,000 or best offer that hasn't sold yet. I know it is VGA, but you would think if a WATA 9.8 sells for almost $22,000 that someone would buy this copy and cross grade it with WATA and probably get at least a 9.6 and possibly the same 9.8 grade that just sold for $21,600. The buyer of the VGA 85+ copy, then could theoretically sell it at Heritage and make a huge profit from buying this VGA copy. How come nobody has bought it?! I honestly don't know what to believe anymore, but I do know that I am anxiously awaiting CertifiedLink's video game (VGA & WATA graded games) auctions to end in 2 days to get a much better read on the sealed video game market, because if you check out some of their auctions right now (I know that the caliber of games being auctioned off at Certified don't match Heritage and most of the games are VGA graded, but if the market has truly exploded, some of these games should go for much higher than what they currently sitting at). If CertifiedLink's final auction prices are at least comparable to Heritage's final prices, then it will add much more credibility for me about these insane prices at Heritage Auctions. Let's all wait and see! So far, that Tyson's Punchout looks like it is going to go for a very high price and the same about the Tetris, so maybe everything at Heritage is the real deal?! https://www.certifiedlink.com/auctions/default.asp?clickType=&pga=2&TypeRads=all&ord1=3&ord1d=DESC&ord2=6&ord2d=ASC&ord3=0&ord3d=ASC&top_search_hiddentext=&pg=1&pgb=2&control_loc=low&nextsectlow=&nextsectlowval=&nextsect=&nextsectval=&nextsecthold=&nextsectholdval=&nexttype=6&lefthandpick=&focused=1&code=&beenheredonethat=1&overridesort2default=&view=2021marcert https://www.ebay.com/itm/SONIC-THE-HEDGEHOG-2-SEGA-GENESIS-VGA-GRADED-85-GOLD-NEW-SEALED-IN-BOX-RARE/143644010508?epid=5520&hash=item2171d9a80c:g:HG0AAOSwefhe-Mp9&autorefresh=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp1nz | 611 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, Dumars2001 said: A Sega Genesis Sonic 2 Wata 9.8 just sold for $21,600 (crazy high amount of money for that game!) on April 2nd at Heritage and a Sonic 2 Wata graded 9.4 sold for $5,520 on November 22nd, 2020. Yes, I know that everything in the hobby has supposedly gotten much crazier since late last year, but then I see a Sonic 2 Vga 85+ currently for sale on Ebay for $5,000 or best offer that hasn't sold yet. I know it is VGA, but you would think if a WATA 9.8 sells for almost $22,000 that someone would buy this copy and cross grade it with WATA and probably get at least a 9.6 and possibly the same 9.8 grade that just sold for $21,600. The buyer of the VGA 85+ copy, then could theoretically sell it at Heritage and make a huge profit from buying this VGA copy. How come nobody has bought it?! With the Wata turnaround times, even if you knew you could make money right now, could you be so sure about one year from now? Either people are only being hype about Wata grade numbers and not understanding VGA scale in comparison or sealed specialists are expecting a market correction for the item before they could get their submission back to profit on. I guess people wanting to add a sealed Sonic 2 into their collection don't see that kind of value in it, neither do I but I'm no sealed collector either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamW | 713 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 People are definitely doing that kind of arbitrage - I mentioned earlier I saw a pretty high grade Pokemon Emerald sell of eBay for $10k right after one went for a much higher number at the HA auction. I think @sp1nz is probably on the right lines with that Sonic: you've got to factor in the turnaround time even if you're just planning a straight flip, and in bubbles, the outlying things are more vulnerable than the core ones. Sonic 2 is probably a bigger risk than Pokemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kell | 102 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 1 minute ago, AdamW said: People are definitely doing that kind of arbitrage - I mentioned earlier I saw a pretty high grade Pokemon Emerald sell of eBay for $10k right after one went for a much higher number at the HA auction. I think @sp1nz is probably on the right lines with that Sonic: you've got to factor in the turnaround time even if you're just planning a straight flip, and in bubbles, the outlying things are more vulnerable than the core ones. Sonic 2 is probably a bigger risk than Pokemon. In this market the extra wait time will help sellers as prices continue to rise. Who knows when/if prices will drop. There has been flipping/arbitrage in VG collecting for some years now, especially with sealed games. One reason I stopped collecting older games, too many flippers/resellers on ebay. I really missed the boat on Pokemon games. I was never into them and never speculated that they'd be worth something some day. I had no idea of their impact, or relevance. I should have known since they were published by Nintendo. Got rid of them years ago for basically nothing, including quite a few Emeralds. Big miss on my part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamW | 713 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 @kellthat's only true as long as prices continue to rise, though Buying a 'raw' sealed game right now with the intent to grade and flip it is essentially a bet that prices will hold or rise (depending on what you pay and what your expected profit is) for several months to a year, depending on how much money you're willing to throw at WATA and the HA auction schedule (assuming you're going to HA to sell). Some people think that's very likely, some less so. My guess is that if there is an adjustment, it'd probably hit the kind of 'second-tier' stuff like Sonic that people were throwing crazy money at in the last HA auction faster and harder than stuff like Mario or Pokemon that's been expensive for a while, or the kind of "rare but obscure" stuff that people here tend to be more interested in (since it hasn't got caught up in the HA excitement to the same extent as big-name games have). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonebone | 1,307 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 (edited) The Sonic 2 that sold for high prices on HA was a much rarer early variant on it, that is what people here are missing. The seal is tube seal (much earlier) not the typical LRB that you see on a great many VGA slabbed copies. Edited April 12, 2021 by jonebone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kell | 102 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 @AdamWExactly, which is why I stated "in this market". Buying a game (collectible, stock, etc.) to flip is always a risk regardless of whether it's raw or graded. There are no guarantees. I agree, the first party/tier titles should hold their value much more so over time if a correction does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 582 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 I think that VGA 85 Sonic would come back a 9.4 or 9.6- making it slightly risky to regrade and flip for a profit after the fees. If we had population reports of these games and knew for sure how many were out there, it would make it easier to speculate. With that said, I think the way the market is reacting right now is based on the insider information of how many of these sealed games truly exist. If I had an extra disposable 5k laying around, I would take that risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 582 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, jonebone said: The Sonic 2 that sold for high prices on HA was a much rarer early variant on it, that is what people here are missing. The seal is tube seal (much earlier) not the typical LRB that you see on a great many VGA slabbed copies. Excellent point about the tube seam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamW | 713 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Well, yeah, but there still wasn't much prior indication people would go over $20k for it. They sold an RTB 9.4/A+ for $1260 in late November and a tube 9.4/B for $1440 in early December. So that indicates a premium for the tube seal but not an insane one, and it's a long way from there to $20k+ in April, even for a (somewhat questionable, as discussed here) 9.8/A++... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 582 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, AdamW said: Well, yeah, but there still wasn't much prior indication people would go over $20k for it. They sold an RTB 9.4/A+ for $1260 in late November and a tube 9.4/B for $1440 in early December. So that indicates a premium for the tube seal but not an insane one, and it's a long way from there to $20k+ in April, even for a (somewhat questionable, as discussed here) 9.8/A++... Yea looking at that 9.8 and comparing it to the VGA Sonic, if they were truly graded on the same comparable scale that VGA should come back a 10.0 A++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kell | 102 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 The one in Nov is Later Production, the recent one is slated as First Production. Many collectors see this as a huge difference... apparently a 20k+ difference (although higher grade has impact as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamW | 713 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 @kellthe one from early December is the same production as the $20k one. My point is that in late Nov/early Dec, the premium between RTB and tube wasn't huge (it cost $180 more, with a three grade lower quality seal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kell | 102 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 (edited) @AdamWYep, you are right. Although, it is not as prominently displayed... Is there info somewhere on how the different Genesis seals? Looks like Sonic 2 is where it is made/assembled. Edited April 12, 2021 by kell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YOURTURN | 1,256 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 On 4/12/2021 at 1:49 AM, Shmup said: Yeah so crazy when you put it in that perspective. I’d much rather that collection over one of those 4th print left bros Mario getting Luigi off ultra rare A+++++ games. Not me. I'd rather put that "not going to HA" money into making a people mover version of this. And not just because @croagunk's avatar makes a cameo appearance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumars2001 | 164 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 (edited) Well CertifiedLink's Auction ended yesterday and here are some comparisons in price with WATA, VGA and recent Heritage Auctions below. Aside from the Tetris, I was surprised with the little difference in prices. I know this is just a small sample size but this does show that there may not be a big WATA and Heritage Auctions conspiracy going on after all. **The Nes Mike Tyson's Punchout black seal CertifiedLink WATA 6.0 sold for a whopping $29,500!** Nes Tengen Tetris Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $36,000 Nes Tengen Tetris CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $10,111 N64 Mario Party 2 Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $12,600 & a WATA 9.4 (same day in early April)sold for $4,800 N64 Mario Party VGA CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $3,133 Sega Genesis Maximum Carnage Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $6,000 Sega Genesis Maximum Carnage CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $3,600 Nes Bartman Heritage Auctions WATA 8.0 sold for $3,120 Nes Bartman CertifiedLink WATA 8.0 sold for $2,305 Turbo Grafx 16 Bonk's Adventure Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $11,400 Turbo Grafx 16 Bonk's Adventure CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $10,250 Snes Street Fighter 2 Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $7,200 Snes Street Fighter 2 CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $9,851 Snes Final Fight Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $4,320 Snes Final Fight CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $4,544 Nes Willow Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $2,640 Nes Willow CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $1,500 Sega Saturn Doom Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $2,040 Sega Saturn Doom CertifiedLink VGA 90 (uncirculated) sold for $1,300 Sega Genesis NBA Jam T.E. Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $2,160 Sega Genesis NBA Jam T.E. CeritfiedLink VGA 90 sold for $1,000 Nes Wario's Woods Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 $1,080 Nes Wario's woods CertifiedLink VGA 90 (uncirculated) sold for $659 Edited April 14, 2021 by Dumars2001 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 582 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, Dumars2001 said: Well CertifiedLink's Auction ended yesterday and here are some comparisons in price with WATA, VGA and recent Heritage Auctions below. Aside from the Tetris, I was surprised with the little difference in prices. Nes Tengen Tetris Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $36,000 Nes Tengen Tetris CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $10,111 N64 Mario Party 2 Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $12,600 & a WATA 9.4 (same day in early April)sold for $4,800 N64 Mario Party VGA CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $3,133 Sega Genesis Maximum Carnage Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $6,000 Sega Genesis Maximum Carnage CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $3,600 Nes Bartman Heritage Auctions WATA 8.0 sold for $3,120 Nes Bartman CertifiedLink WATA 8.0 sold for $2,305 Turbo Grafx 16 Bonk's Adventure Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $11,400 Turbo Grafx 16 Bonk's Adventure CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $10,250 Snes Street Fighter 2 Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $7,200 Snes Street Fighter 2 CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $9,851 Snes Final Fight Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $4,320 Snes Final Fight CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $4,544 Nes Willow Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $2,640 Nes Willow CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $1,500 Sega Saturn Doom Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $2,040 Sega Saturn CertifiedLink VGA 90 (uncirculated) sold for $1,300 Sega Genesis NBA Jam T.E. Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $2,160 Sega Genesis NBA Jam T.E. CeritfiedLink VGA 90 sold for $1,000 Nes Wario's Woods Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 $1,080 Nes Wario's woods CertifiedLink VGA 90 (uncirculated) sold for $659 I wonder if HA has more traffic than CL. I don't use CL, but these prices are averaging out to be comparatively similar. The market is indeed real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GPX | 1,369 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Dumars2001 said: Well CertifiedLink's Auction ended yesterday and here are some comparisons in price with WATA, VGA and recent Heritage Auctions below. Aside from the Tetris, I was surprised with the little difference in prices. Nes Tengen Tetris Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $36,000 Nes Tengen Tetris CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $10,111 N64 Mario Party 2 Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $12,600 & a WATA 9.4 (same day in early April)sold for $4,800 N64 Mario Party VGA CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $3,133 Sega Genesis Maximum Carnage Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $6,000 Sega Genesis Maximum Carnage CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $3,600 Nes Bartman Heritage Auctions WATA 8.0 sold for $3,120 Nes Bartman CertifiedLink WATA 8.0 sold for $2,305 Turbo Grafx 16 Bonk's Adventure Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $11,400 Turbo Grafx 16 Bonk's Adventure CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $10,250 Snes Street Fighter 2 Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $7,200 Snes Street Fighter 2 CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $9,851 Snes Final Fight Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $4,320 Snes Final Fight CertifiedLink VGA 90 sold for $4,544 Nes Willow Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $2,640 Nes Willow CertifiedLink VGA 85+ sold for $1,500 Sega Saturn Doom Heritage Auctions WATA 9.8 sold for $2,040 Sega Saturn CertifiedLink VGA 90 (uncirculated) sold for $1,300 Sega Genesis NBA Jam T.E. Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 sold for $2,160 Sega Genesis NBA Jam T.E. CeritfiedLink VGA 90 sold for $1,000 Nes Wario's Woods Heritage Auctions WATA 9.6 $1,080 Nes Wario's woods CertifiedLink VGA 90 (uncirculated) sold for $659 Thanks for some of these comparisons. The closeness in prices probably reflects a general increase in market values overall across the high end graded games. It also reflects market values of items between the $1,000 and $10,000. So from the above, the WATA 9.6 Tengen Tetris for $36,000 looks a bit of a significant anomaly to me. It would have been nice if there were some direct comparisons of the high end Pokemon or Mario graded games that have been going bonkers over at HA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumars2001 | 164 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Gulag Joe said: I wonder if HA has more traffic than CL. I don't use CL, but these prices are averaging out to be comparatively similar. The market is indeed real. Heritage Auction House is 100% the bigger auction house between the two and definitely has much more notoriety, popularity and bidders than CertifiedLink, so the sold prices being so similar, combined with such high sold Ebay prices over the past few months for raw, sealed and CIB games, certainly lends more credibility to me that what is going on in the hobby right now is in fact pretty real! Just my humble opinion at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kell | 102 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 I may be wrong but I thought I read that HA fees are much higher than CL. As a seller CL may not be a bad alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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