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The Price Thread (predictions, hot prices, cold prices, anomalies, etc)


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Little update here. I checked JJ Games website and saw that they had a copy of The Mask for way less than the current market price. It arrived the other day. Feel like I lucked out.

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On 4/9/2021 at 3:12 PM, AdamW said:

As someone who's fairly new here I do wonder whether mass-produced "plastic games" can reasonably hold valuations as high as mass-produced "cardboard games", when the containers are in general sturdier, and more susceptible to replacement if broken. You can swap out a jewel case or a DVD-style case - either entirely, or just parts, like the disc tray - quite easily, unless it's a special one with a logo imprinted on it or some kind of specific multi-disc arrangement; you can't swap out a cardboard box except with another entire cardboard box of the same game...even if the case is unusual/unique, and even though they are susceptible to damage to varying extents, you've gotta think more plastic ones are likely to have survived in acceptable shape than cardboard ones.

You've gotta think there must be quite a lot more Final Fantasy VIIs (ignoring variant concerns, for this purpose) or Xs out there in collectible condition than cardboard Pokemons or Super Mario Worlds, right?

Cases are certainly more durable yes.  But finding a nice condition cart is way easier than a mint disc with no scratching at all.  Under the Wata CIB grading method the box is 50% while the cart / disc is only 30%, but still finding true 9.4 and up CIBs on any platform will not be as easy as you may think.  

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1 hour ago, jonebone said:

Cases are certainly more durable yes.  But finding a nice condition cart is way easier than a mint disc with no scratching at all.  Under the Wata CIB grading method the box is 50% while the cart / disc is only 30%, but still finding true 9.4 and up CIBs on any platform will not be as easy as you may think.  

Yea, I think a lot of the modern stuff is more condition sensitive than people realize. Not sure what the best term is, but the artwork forms around the grooves in the plastic cases. The manuals are sometimes damaged as soon as you open the game from sliding around inside the case during shipping. Of course discs have their own issues and scratches.  Blu Rays have more protection, but it’s still an issue.

Obviously not on the scale of cardboard, which had large amounts tossed day one, but modern stuff presents its own challenges as well.

 

Edited by DeuceGamer
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10 hours ago, jonebone said:

Cases are certainly more durable yes.  But finding a nice condition cart is way easier than a mint disc with no scratching at all.  Under the Wata CIB grading method the box is 50% while the cart / disc is only 30%, but still finding true 9.4 and up CIBs on any platform will not be as easy as you may think.  

For cardboard that makes sense (the discrepancy should be higher than that if anything) but surely they are not placing more importance on plastic CD cases than the discs? Those cases should be seen as more an equivalent to NES dust covers (which Wata says they don't even count in the rating) rather than boxes. Aren't they completely interchangeable (with few exceptions)? Cover sleeves are another story of course but those do almost always stay in nice condition as opposed to discs.

Edited by chuppy44
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13 minutes ago, chuppy44 said:

For cardboard that makes sense (the discrepancy should be higher than that if anything) but surely they are not placing more importance on plastic CD cases than the discs? Those cases should be seen as more an equivalent to NES dust covers (which Wata says they don't even count in the rating) rather than boxes. Aren't they completely interchangeable (with few exceptions)? Cover sleeves are another story of course but those do almost always stay in nice condition as opposed to discs.

They are interchangeable but I also think people overestimate how easy it is to get exactly correct, mint replacements for their jewel cases and DVDs. Not sure what the current replacement jewel case situation is like, but AFAIK zero currently-manufactured jewel cases are to the spec of the 90s jewel cases. All are much cheaper. When I had to replace a few, I bought some NOS 90s Sony music CDs to get equal quality cases. With DVD cases there are dozens of minor variations few people have a great handle on. I think grading modern CIB disc crap is silly, but just in terms of getting nice cases for your collection, it's a bit of a pain. It's also possible Wata just won't care about one million percent correct DVD and jewel cases like they don't really care about baggies or inserts that much.

Edited by DefaultGen
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I know music CD collectors care about getting jewel cases right, it may become more of a Thing over time, I guess. As well as the exact details of the case design and the tray, there are things like cases that actually have a company name stamped into them (I have quite a few music CDs with the publisher's logo stamped in the jewel case somewhere for e.g.)

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On 4/8/2021 at 9:17 PM, attakid101 said:

That makes sense. I gotta saythough, I’m surprised it’s gone as high as it has. There’s a cart only copy on eBay right now going for way more than it has a right to...

 https://www.ebay.com/itm/The-Mask-Super-Nintendo-Entertainment-System-SNES-OEM-Cartridge-Only/303949218092?epid=214710404&hash=item46c4c9012c:g:AbwAAOSw7QdgbKg8

Little update here. I checked JJ Games website and saw that they had a copy of The Mask for way less than the current market price. It arrived the other day. Feel like I lucked out.

211235E3-C97E-4946-9FB3-5E5F47C67C1B.jpeg

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22 hours ago, DefaultGen said:

They are interchangeable but I also think people overestimate how easy it is to get exactly correct, mint replacements for their jewel cases and DVDs. Not sure what the current replacement jewel case situation is like, but AFAIK zero currently-manufactured jewel cases are to the spec of the 90s jewel cases. All are much cheaper. When I had to replace a few, I bought some NOS 90s Sony music CDs to get equal quality cases. With DVD cases there are dozens of minor variations few people have a great handle on. I think grading modern CIB disc crap is silly, but just in terms of getting nice cases for your collection, it's a bit of a pain. It's also possible Wata just won't care about one million percent correct DVD and jewel cases like they don't really care about baggies or inserts that much.

I feel like any thrift store is going to have plenty of cases you can choose from when it comes to CDs. Finding a mint one might be slightly harder, but not like finding a good Saturn case or something

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On 4/12/2021 at 9:34 PM, DefaultGen said:

 It's also possible Wata just won't care about one million percent correct DVD and jewel cases like they don't really care about baggies or inserts that much.

ULTRA RARE 0.9 g/cm^3 density KEEP CASE print run. Much rarer than the subsequent .885g/cm^3 density runs.

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51 minutes ago, Californication said:

Why? There was a sharp downward trend until the pandemic hit.

Just that there was a thread almost daily in 2014-2016 about how/when the floor was gonna fall out and this wouldn't be maintained. I know that the unforeseen circumstances of the pandemic have created this secondary push, but regardless it still makes me laugh seeing current sales and thinking back on some of those threads that were confident that we'd see prices fall back down to pre-2010 levels in the near future.

Although I wasn't paying all that much attention to prices in 2017-2020, I'm not sure I'd describe that as a sharp downward trend... maybe a plateau or slight correction. From the charts over at GVN it looks like things were on a slight rise in 2019 even before the pandemic had landed.

 

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39 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

Just that there was a thread almost daily in 2014-2016 about how/when the floor was gonna fall out and this wouldn't be maintained. I know that the unforeseen circumstances of the pandemic have created this secondary push, but regardless it still makes me laugh seeing current sales and thinking back on some of those threads that were confident that we'd see prices fall back down to pre-2010 levels in the near future.

Although I wasn't paying all that much attention to prices in 2017-2020, I'm not sure I'd describe that as a sharp downward trend... maybe a plateau or slight correction. From the charts over at GVN it looks like things were on a slight rise in 2019 even before the pandemic had landed.

 

The pandemic has reshaped national and global markets. There are new booming industries and industries that have suddenly failed. Video games just happen to be an industry that got lucky. 

So I don't underatand how you think those predictions were wrong unless you expected a black swan event that would give a resurgence to retro gaming. 

Game Value Now and Price Charting data is inaccurate. I watched it because I've been heavily collecting since 2016.

Games like team buddies and In the Hunt (jewel) were down to like $90-$120 down from $200-$300. Genesis had a kick when the analogue console came out, but that was starting to fade. Gamecube had the strongest growth presence and they were mostly selling between $20-$40 with a couple $100+ games. PS3 games were like $2-$3. Those are just the examples that I initially think of, but there are more.

Edited by Californication
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24 minutes ago, Californication said:

So I don't underatand how you think those predictions were wrong unless you expected a black swan event that would give a resurgence to retro gaming. 

 

 

I thought the predictions were extremely hopeful back then and were often created by people with that mindset - that they'd be able to buy games for dirt cheap again in the near future. Honestly, my comment wasn't even so much that those predictions were right or wrong just that we've come so far from those prices regardless of cause which I find humorous. I agree that things definitely simmered down after 2016 and likely would have remained somewhat flat if Covid never happened. I also know that no one could have predicted where were at today even in 2019 including myself.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

 

I thought the predictions were extremely hopeful back then and were often created by people with that mindset - that they'd be able to buy games for dirt cheap again in the near future. Honestly, my comment wasn't even so much that those predictions were right or wrong just that we've come so far from those prices regardless of cause which I find humorous. I agree that things definitely simmered down after 2016 and likely would have remained somewhat flat if Covid never happened. I also know that no one could have predicted where were at today even in 2019 including myself.

 

 

Oh okay, when you put it like that it is kind of funny. Like the irony of trying to predict something against the random nature of life which will behave how it wants to behave. 

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1 hour ago, Californication said:

Oh okay, when you put it like that it is kind of funny. Like the irony of trying to predict something against the random nature of life which will behave how it wants to behave. 

Yeah... just kinda laughing at the situation w.r.t the insane prices rather than the people who made those predictions. I can't even believe the prices and they're happening right in front of us.

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