Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[Makar | 1,946]

On 4/16/2020 at 1:36 PM, arch_8ngel said:

Agreed.

@Californication-- when Makar said he was "up 50%" he wasn't referring to being up 50% on a specific single position that was some specific great gamble.  That is presumably an accumulation of a bunch of much smaller up-days (i.e. 5 - 10% here and there, cumulative).

Correct. I bought Johnson and Johnson, Apache, Disney, Pepsi, Spirit, and Royal Caribbean back a couple weeks ago. All are up 20+ % since I bought them. I sold Apache, royal Caribbean and spirit since they are much more volatile and less reliable right now than the others. So now it's just Disney, Johnson and Johnson and Pepsi but I'll jump back into the others I had if the price is right. Trying to find another good penny stock to dabble in. TRNX was a fun ride today. Got on and off that train at the right time and made $350. The key is looking at market volume and catching it as it's taking off and getting out before it crumbles.

[ThePhleo | 2,184]

Isn’t J&J going through some SERIOUS litigation right now regarding asbestos contamination in their baby powder for decades and knowingly covering it up?

If that hasn’t been finalized yet, I would not want to be holding that.

[Makar | 1,946]

16 hours ago, ThePhleo said:

Isn’t J&J going through some SERIOUS litigation right now regarding asbestos contamination in their baby powder for decades and knowingly covering it up?

If that hasn’t been finalized yet, I would not want to be holding that.

Someone said the same thing. That litigation has been known since January of this year so it doesn't look like that effected their stock much. I'm up 34% since I bought it so I really can't complain

[ThePhleo | 2,184]

WTF is with US Shale Oil being NEGATIVE $40.00 a barrel?.

...

Does that mean they're paying me to take it into my portfolio?

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

6 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

WTF is with US Shale Oil being NEGATIVE $40.00 a barrel?.

...

Does that mean they're paying me to take it into my portfolio?

Not unless you have a place to store a full contract's worth, physically.

 

(basically "negative" price says that they're willing to pay you to take delivery and store it, legally, because that is cheaper in the very short term than them completely shutting down production)

Edited April 20, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[Californication | 1,477]

Can someone explain to me how $OXY held despite oil collapsing?

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

4 minutes ago, Californication said:

Can someone explain to me how $OXY held despite oil collapsing?

They are already massively crushed by prices being as low as they are.  (from the perspective of OXY, oil prices "collapsed" weeks ago)

Buffet has a substantial stake in them as well.

But comparatively -- OXY did worse today than traditional producers like XOM.

[Californication | 1,477]

Just now, arch_8ngel said:

They are already massively crushed by prices being as low as they are.  (from the perspective of OXY, oil prices "collapsed" weeks ago)

Buffet has a substantial stake in them as well.

But comparatively -- OXY did worse today than traditional producers like XOM.

OXY opened negative 11% or 12% premarket and went up 5% or so. 

And Buffett is getting paid in a massive amount of shares which are going to regularly dilute the share value. 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

10 minutes ago, Californication said:

OXY opened negative 11% or 12% premarket and went up 5% or so. 

And Buffett is getting paid in a massive amount of shares which are going to regularly dilute the share value. 

I think it's less about what it will take to pay Buffet, and more that there are MULTIPLE potentially activist investors already bought in heavily to OXY, presumably reducing the likelihood of them collapsing outright. (at least to the perception of regular people)

[Kguillemette | 1,542]

I've been nibbling on WTER. Seems poised for a steady climb ahead. Bought a bunch when it was hovering about a buck a share. Beyond that, I'm keeping a close eye on airlines and foodservice distributions in case they take another hit. I've done very well day trading on them, but I'm holding off and sitting on cash right now, I havent liked them for a couple weeks.

[Makar | 1,946]

Anyone here still dabbling with stocks during corona? How have you all done? Lately I've shifted a bit of my portfolio to "safer" stocks with pretty high dividend yields. I'm looking at you At&t and SPG. both have yields of 7% or higher.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

5 hours ago, Makar said:

Anyone here still dabbling with stocks during corona? How have you all done? Lately I've shifted a bit of my portfolio to "safer" stocks with pretty high dividend yields. I'm looking at you At&t and SPG. both have yields of 7% or higher.

I'm staying away from SPG.  I get that they are "special" in their sector... but that sector is going to continue to suffer a lot of abuse, for years to come.

I'm into some other fairly high dividend REITs, though.

Did decide that AAPL had gotten a little too nutty ahead of the split, so took my gains on 2/3 of my position. (and right there with you on AT&T)

[Makar | 1,946]

4 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

I'm staying away from SPG.  I get that they are "special" in their sector... but that sector is going to continue to suffer a lot of abuse, for years to come.

I'm into some other fairly high dividend REITs, though.

Did decide that AAPL had gotten a little too nutty ahead of the split, so took my gains on 2/3 of my position. (and right there with you on AT&T)

Yea they are a risk but they were up to $90 a month or so ago before going back down to the 60s. So if they go back up there, that's a 40-50% jump. There's also word of amazon wanting to buy up mall real estate to use as distribution centers. And when malls open back up SPG should back up too. They've had really good dividend yields for years just like AT&T. They have much more to gain on their stock than AT&T too. AT&T moves at snail pace for gains lol but with 5G infrastructure building up over the next couple years it's a pretty safe bet to keep going up. Just gotta be patient. 

I still have my apple. Not selling for a while. I think it can hit $150 in no time which would be a 20% jump. Might actually buy more if it dips to the $100-120 range this week. 

Also dabbling in sub 1 cent stocks. Hit 2 homeruns so far with those. They are very fun to mess with lol.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

37 minutes ago, Makar said:

Yea they are a risk but they were up to $90 a month or so ago before going back down to the 60s. So if they go back up there, that's a 40-50% jump. There's also word of amazon wanting to buy up mall real estate to use as distribution centers. And when malls open back up SPG should back up too. They've had really good dividend yields for years just like AT&T. They have much more to gain on their stock than AT&T too. AT&T moves at snail pace for gains lol but with 5G infrastructure building up over the next couple years it's a pretty safe bet to keep going up. Just gotta be patient. 

I still have my apple. Not selling for a while. I think it can hit $150 in no time which would be a 20% jump. Might actually buy more if it dips to the $100-120 range this week. 

Also dabbling in sub 1 cent stocks. Hit 2 homeruns so far with those. They are very fun to mess with lol.

Well, SPG is certainly the best in their sector, but unless there is a total paradigm shift, malls are going to have headwinds for a very long time.  (and frankly, ATT, at this dividend, could be flat forever, for all I care, as long as they pay it  )

AAPL, at $100 post split is a 20%+ drop.  I'd almost certainly buy back in at that point, I just think the current pricing is driven by a bunch of kids on Robinhood that buy memes and got excited about the split.  (but the reality is, at current weighted values, AAPL is at least 5% of pretty much every SP500, large cap, and total market ETF out there -- cutting back my explicit exposure isn't REALLY reducing my total exposure to them all that much in the greater scheme of things)

$150 is them at $600 pre-split. I'm not saying that people aren't crazy enough to push it there... because look at the crazy around Tesla's absolutely absurd valuations... but I was happy to make very hearty gains at the level I sold and see what happens with the rest of my holdings post-split.  It isn't going to hurt my feelings to miss some more from them in the short term.

 

Penny stocks I have no interest in though. More power to you if that is your thing.

[jonebone | 1,307]

What a wild roller coaster ride Gamestop (GME) has been too anyone following attention.

I first made an entry at $13, cost averaged in mid $10s now and held through lows of $3.  People cried they would be bankrupt, that $2.50 was overvalued and to dump em.  So many short articles.

They bounced around $4 and $6 for awhile, then saw a strong surge up to earnings at $8.50.  Earnings were "bad" (underperforming) but not that bad for the pandemic mess, especially on the eve of new consoles.  Dropped them to $6.50 the next day and they have been surging ever since.

Surging to $9 and shorts are feeling the squeeze.  All Gamestop had to do was weather the storm until the next gen, which they've done and have aggressively cut costs all along the way.  Here's to the brighter future and I hope the shorts all cover, GME is not going anywhere. 

[RH | 4,887]

7 minutes ago, jonebone said:

What a wild roller coaster ride Gamestop (GME) has been too anyone following attention.

I first made an entry at $13, cost averaged in mid $10s now and held through lows of $3.  People cried they would be bankrupt, that $2.50 was overvalued and to dump em.  So many short articles.

They bounced around $4 and $6 for awhile, then saw a strong surge up to earnings at $8.50.  Earnings were "bad" (underperforming) but not that bad for the pandemic mess, especially on the eve of new consoles.  Dropped them to $6.50 the next day and they have been surging ever since.

Surging to $9 and shorts are feeling the squeeze.  All Gamestop had to do was weather the storm until the next gen, which they've done and have aggressively cut costs all along the way.  Here's to the brighter future and I hope the shorts all cover, GME is not going anywhere. 

I think the real question isn't if they will stick around for another year, two or even three to four.  As an investor, the real question is if they are on the downward slide to bankruptsy.

If you bought GME at $3, you're probably feeling like a king but if you're looking at this long term, who knows what will happen.  When the PS5/XB1X comes out, they will definitely sell units and games.  But, will they sell enough to become profitable or even "highly profitable".  I'm not sure.

They might do well for Black Friday.  People have been kooked up for so long, I think people might really, really appreciate a bit of shopping normalcy at that time, if it's at all possible. But, if most local  governments ramp up laws to prevent big crowds, then places like Game Stop might get hit the hardest because there is no doubt they really, really need strong sales on that day.

I don't really like Game Stop, but on the same hand, I'd hate to see them go.  It'd be an end of an era.  That said, I still think the writing is on the wall for them but the real questions are, when will that be and how many profitability waves will there be on the ride.  I'm guessing not many.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

 

7 minutes ago, RH said:

I think the real question isn't if they will stick around for another year, two or even three to four.  As an investor, the real question is if they are on the downward slide to bankruptsy.

If you bought GME at $3, you're probably feeling like a king but if you're looking at this long term, who knows what will happen.  When the PS5/XB1X comes out, they will definitely sell units and games.  But, will they sell enough to become profitable or even "highly profitable".  I'm not sure.

They might do well for Black Friday.  People have been kooked up for so long, I think people might really, really appreciate a bit of shopping normalcy at that time, if it's at all possible. But, if most local  governments ramp up laws to prevent big crowds, then places like Game Stop might get hit the hardest because there is no doubt they really, really need strong sales on that day.

I don't really like Game Stop, but on the same hand, I'd hate to see them go.  It'd be an end of an era.  That said, I still think the writing is on the wall for them but the real questions are, when will that be and how many profitability waves will there be on the ride.  I'm guessing not many.

Looking at their recent quarterly losses, it is seems a bit hard to imagine these two console releases putting them all the way into the realm of profitability.

"The real question", IMO, is the opportunity cost of staying investing in GME, whether they go completely belly-up, or not.

To that end, I'd be curious to know where Jonebone thinks it could go from here, versus being invested in literally anything else now that the bulk of the losses are managed.

Edited September 17, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[RH | 4,887]

3 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

 

Looking at their recent quarterly losses, it is seems a bit hard to imagine these two console releases putting them all the way into the realm of profitability.

"The real question", IMO, is the opportunity cost of staying investing in GME, whether they go completely belly-up, or not.

Well, I don't disagree with that but at the current price and performance, I have a tough time reading those tea leaves.  That's my TL;DR point, really.

[jonebone | 1,307]

13 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

 

Looking at their recent quarterly losses, it is seems a bit hard to imagine these two console releases putting them all the way into the realm of profitability.

"The real question", IMO, is the opportunity cost of staying investing in GME, whether they go completely belly-up, or not.

To that end, I'd be curious to know where Jonebone thinks it could go from here, versus being invested in literally anything else now that the bulk of the losses are managed.

I think the entire stock market as a whole is way overvalued at this point and will correct come election time. So I've already pulled out about half of my COVID dips that I bought.  I always max out Roth and 401k into stocks (mostly 90/10 or 80/20 regardless), but in terms of my personal side money, I'm still mostly cash at this time.

Don't really care about the opportunity costs, just like having a lot of cash in case once in a lifetime type deals present themselves.  The high end video game collecting market has vastly outpaced any traditional investment I've ever made. 

[RH | 4,887]

3 minutes ago, jonebone said:

The high end video game collecting market has vastly outpaced any traditional investment I've ever made. 

I'm not into games for investing for actual retirement/money. I will buy a game "investment" but the intent is to always flip/trade it later for something else I want more within my collection.  Don't spend what you can't afford to lose is how I handle those games, so regardless I use expendable income to make those "investments".

Regardless, the market was going up pre-COVID, but COVID has made it crazy.  I know the GVN pricing isn't perfect, but when you have thousands of games (which I do), the general percent increase is accurate, even if the final number of the value of your collection isn't.  In the past 12 months, my collection has gone up over 50% in value, and a lot of that is the top-heavy stuff.  I'd estimate the average game has gone up maybe 25% but the expensive, rare, sealed stuff has doubled or tripled.

This isn't as crazy as crypto back around 2012-17, but it's far crazier than the stock markets.  And I hate to admit this.  I don't want to look at my games as an investment portfolio, but it's hard to ignore those results.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

53 minutes ago, jonebone said:

I think the entire stock market as a whole is way overvalued at this point and will correct come election time. So I've already pulled out about half of my COVID dips that I bought.  I always max out Roth and 401k into stocks (mostly 90/10 or 80/20 regardless), but in terms of my personal side money, I'm still mostly cash at this time.

Don't really care about the opportunity costs, just like having a lot of cash in case once in a lifetime type deals present themselves.  The high end video game collecting market has vastly outpaced any traditional investment I've ever made. 

I definitely agree with being in a larger than typical cash allocation, at the moment, because things certainly seem detached from reality, in general.

But whether it is to park it in cash as dry powder, or have it in some other investment with potentially longer legs, there is still an opportunity cost in keeping money tied up in GME.  (i.e. they aren't likely to fare any better in a drop than anything else, and I don't have any real confidence in their upside going forward)  More power to you if you want to keep hanging in there.

 

And I don't doubt that you've done well with higher end games over the past x-years.  That is sort of the definition of a situation where you are able to develop a clear edge versus the "average", at least for awhile.  i.e. you aren't battling with algorithms and institutions, the fed, or whoever else

[Daniel_Doyce | 470]

I hope GME pulls through so a ton of people don't lose their jobs. I still wouldn't mess with it. I did a lot better just plowing money into the S&P index near the bottom since that was a once in a decade buying opportunity.

My own company's stock is in the toilet. Thankfully I don't have any more invested than just what I put in through the ESPP, but it's really fisting a whale eye at the moment

 

[Californication | 1,477]

I think theres some opportunity in CODX. The stock did well on it's last earnings on its YoY and just didn't beat expectations. On the earnings call the CEO said they had alrrady had $25 m in revenue for Q3 midway through the quarter which nearly matched its YTD revenue. They have great margins, their net income was like 50% of Revenue. But immediately after earnings their stock dropped like 70% over three weeks. The drop was from short attacks and from the investment companys moving their money away from small caps to big caps, as well as away from most corona virus related stocks. In the last week the stock bounced back, but it is still like 60% down from its highs. This is a real company with real revenue coming in. Whether that is durable over more than one year I don't know, but this isn't a no income producing bet like INO or VXRT.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Californication

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

22 minutes ago, Californication said:

I think theres some opportunity in CODX. The stock did well on it's last earnings on its YoY and just didn't beat expectations. On the earnings call the CEO said they had alrrady had $25 m in revenue for Q3 midway through the quarter which nearly matched its YTD revenue. They have great margins, their net income was like 50% of Revenue. But immediately after earnings their stock dropped like 70% over three weeks. The drop was from short attacks and from the investment companys moving their money away from small caps to big caps, as well as away from most corona virus related stocks. 

Never heard of these guys, so looked them up... they trade at pretty crazy multiples recently.

I could imagine that forcibly rotated them out of any "value" ETFs/Funds they were being held in.

[TylerBarnes | 184]

Anyone thinking of buying in Unity? They just became publicly available. They look like they will be a good buy to get in early.