Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[Californication | 1,477]

I wish I was comfortable getting a put option.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

4 minutes ago, Californication said:

I wish I was comfortable getting a put option.

Don't get sucked in by the wallstreetbets hype.  Those guys crash and burn all the time.

And the vast majority of them engage in options trades they cant properly cover if they need to.  

A few guys over there have gotten super lucky in their particular timing and it should frankly be viewed as lottery winnings more than investing savvy.  (It was one thing to sell out of long positions fairly close to the top given world news about the virus -- it is quite another to say that information was a reliable marker of specific put option strikes and dates that would pay off in a big way)

[Californication | 1,477]

5 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Don't get sucked in by the wallstreetbets hype.  Those guys crash and burn all the time.

And the vast majority of them engage in options trades they cant properly cover if they need to.  

A few guys over there have gotten super lucky in their particular timing and it should frankly be viewed as lottery winnings more than investing savvy.  (It was one thing to sell out of long positions fairly close to the top given world news about the virus -- it is quite another to say that information was a reliable marker of specific put option strikes and dates that would pay off in a big way)

I just mean that the unemployment numbers are coming in 20 minutes and I think a bunch of these stock that are at 90% of what they were doing 2 weeks ago are going to drop. 

 

 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

21 minutes ago, Californication said:

I just mean that the unemployment numbers are coming in 20 minutes and I think a bunch of these stock that are at 90% of what they were doing 2 weeks ago are going to drop. 

 

 

Do you think that the market has been unaware of what the unemployment numbers are likely to be?

That isn't exactly new or particularly uncertain information at this point.

[Californication | 1,477]

11 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Do you think that the market has been unaware of what the unemployment numbers are likely to be?

That isn't exactly new or particularly uncertain information at this point.

As a whole, I don't think the market had priced it in. Everyone heard bailout and they bought. The thing is even with th bailout Q2 earnings are going to be awful across the board, and this recovery package doesn't look like it is going to go to working people enough, so layoffs, plus peoples accumulated bills, mean people aren't spending in the economy so the market isn't just going to bounce back. 

I went to Target yesterday and there were maybe 6 people outside of the food area. And target is lucky that they qualify as essential. Business after bus. in San Diego is empty. This is going to hurt a lot of people.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Californication

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

6 minutes ago, Californication said:

As a whole, I don't think the market had priced it in. Everyone heard bailout and they bought. The thing is even with th bailout Q2 earnings are going to be awful across the board, and this recovery package doesn't look like it is going to go to working people enough, so layoffs, plus peoples accumulated bills, mean people aren't spending in the economy so the market isn't just going to bounce back. 

I went to Target yesterday and there were maybe 6 people outside of the food area. And target is lucky that they qualify as essential. Business after bus. in San Diego is empty. This is going to hurt a lot of people.

Everything you are saying is why the market crashed so quickly in the first place.

I am certainly not trying to call a bottom, because more genuinely bad news can come up, once case loads increase.

But this first unemployment report has been widely expected to be horrific, from the moment states started shutting down. Unless it is somehow wildly different then already low expectations, it probably is mostly priced in.

 

[RH | 4,895]

While we're talking about food stocks, what do you guys think about Conagra (CAG)?  Asking for a friend.

[Californication | 1,477]

1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

Everything you are saying is why the market crashed so quickly in the first place.

I am certainly not trying to call a bottom, because more genuinely bad news can come up, once case loads increase.

But this first unemployment report has been widely expected to be horrific, from the moment states started shutting down. Unless it is somehow wildly different then already low expectations, it probably is mostly priced in.

 

Interesting. So I should be looking long. Hmm. I wonder if there will be a drop for Q2 earnings or if that is priced in.

Wish I would have bought HD the other day.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Californication

[RH | 4,895]

This is completely anecdotal but I will say we listed our house about one week before everything went crazy.  Our realtor is a gentleman my wife and I already knew as an acquaintance, so he calls me every week and we just chat about the market.  He's told me that once lock downs started, he's had 0 calls to buy homes and almost no calls even for renting.  That shouldn't be surprising.

So, home buying and building obviously looks horrible.  But, here's the interesting point, to me.  I get reports on Zillow about my home.  Looking at trends of views and home saves, I'm seeing no slow down of people digitally viewing my home.  I know we have a rather desirable house considering it's price, size and location.  Again, I know this is very anecdotal but, if you ask me, there's a bit of hope in that metric.  People may not be able to buy today but they are still looking, and bookmarking homes they might want to buy when we can get moving again.

Initially we considered delisting our home but the way things are looking from web views, I'm thinking we're going to keep it listed and just wait this out.  It will take time to recover from this economy, but once factories and businesses can re-open, I think the economy as a whole may ramp up rather quickly, and people will want to get back to normal as soon as they can.

That said, if stocks like Home Depot or other companies reliant on home sales and building are taking deep cuts, it might be worth long buying.  They may have the greatest profit increase going into 2021.

[Daniel_Doyce | 470]

18 minutes ago, Californication said:

Interesting. So I should be looking long. Hmm. I wonder if there will be a drop for Q2 earnings or if that is priced in.

Wish I would have bought HD the other day.

What is your goal in putting money into the market? Right now you're basically speculating. If you're looking to start putting money away for retirement, then maybe buy and hold is a better strategy.

Have you read any basic books on investing or evaluating stocks on a more analytical basis to get a grasp on the fundamentals? E.g., different methods to determine a stock's price, or that a debt to equity ratio is not the same as debt to asset ratio, etc.

Are you aware that short term realized capital gains are taxed as regular income, as opposed to the long term capital gain tax rate?

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

34 minutes ago, Californication said:

Interesting. So I should be looking long. Hmm. I wonder if there will be a drop for Q2 earnings or if that is priced in.

Wish I would have bought HD the other day.

I agree with Daniel that you need to figure out why you are putting money into the market, at all.

(along with making sure you understand how the taxes are going to work, and the amount of book-keeping you are generating for yourself hopping in and out of positions)

 

Not necessarily of the opinion that everyone needs to have an understanding of evaluating individual stocks, since the vast majority of people are better served with indexes/funds -- but if you think you're going to try and trade individual stocks, you should probably get some understanding of the fundamentals first rather than trying to trade just on news or expectation of news.

 

[Californication | 1,477]

21 minutes ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

What is your goal in putting money into the market? Right now you're basically speculating. If you're looking to start putting money away for retirement, then maybe buy and hold is a better strategy.

Have you read any basic books on investing or evaluating stocks on a more analytical basis to get a grasp on the fundamentals? E.g., different methods to determine a stock's price, or that a debt to equity ratio is not the same as debt to asset ratio, etc.

Are you aware that short term realized capital gains are taxed as regular income, as opposed to the long term capital gain tax rate?

1. Not sure. 2. I've used the various ratios in school, but haven't applied them. 3. Yes, I do understand the tax implications.

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

I pulled out of pfgc. Gov Sununu just called for an extended stay at home and closed non essential businesses till may 4th. Not only does it not bode well, there's a good chance i will need all the cash i can scrounge up.

 

Also, this morning my delivery driver only had 240 cases on board, which is extremely low, the majority of which is going to tbe homeless shelter. There will be lots of delivery refusals again today and pfgc will probably take another beating. 

[Californication | 1,477]

@kguillemette

Good to know. I bought a small chunk yest. and was going to let it go today. Maybe I'll try to set a stop limit to be safe. First thing on my plate is to try and get a piece of STWD.

Edit: mmm both of those have premarket declines.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Californication

[themisfit138 | 523]

I finally decided to buy Coka-Cola(KO) as one of my longterm stocks. They are fairly stable and have good dividends.

Use to have McDonalds but sold them when I needed some money. A while ago, 2012 or there abouts. Now they are a little out of my price range. To get any significant shares. 

 

[Makar | 1,946]

*note: this is NOT financial advice. Please do not take it as such. Consult with your financial advisor before you do anything.

If you guys are looking for stocks to buy right now during this crazy time, there are several airline and cruise stocks still way below where they were before corona. Here are some of them where you still double triple or quadruple your investment if they go back to where they were.

American airlines (AAL) was a $30 stock before corona. It's now $14.04

Carnival Cruise (CCL) was a $50 stock before corona. It's now $14.41

Spirit airlines (SAVE) was a $45 stock before corona. It's now $14.79

Royal Caribbean cruise (RCL) was a $134 stock before corona. It's now $34.50

[SilverspoonGaming | 331]

I dont do much with the stock market but today I decided to trade in my free stock from Webull and bought 6 shares of Turtle Beach (HEAR) with hopes that it grows when the new Xbox and Playstation are released.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

So I saw that Michael Pachter at Wedbush FINALLY downgraded GME (he was the last long-time hold out among analysts).

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

I've been looking at senior health For funsies. There are two publicly traded major providers for long term senior care, genesis(gen) and brookdale(bkd). Both have taken a beating with corona virus, but both were bleeding money before this all happened. Bkd seems to be in better shape at the moment, i wonder if they might swallow GEN if the opportunity arises in the near future.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

1 hour ago, Kguillemette said:

I've been looking at senior health For funsies. There are two publicly traded major providers for long term senior care, genesis(gen) and brookdale(bkd). Both have taken a beating with corona virus, but both were bleeding money before this all happened. Bkd seems to be in better shape at the moment, i wonder if they might swallow GEN if the opportunity arises in the near future.

I can't say I see the appeal, at all.

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

25 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

I can't say I see the appeal, at all.

I wouldnt dare throw money at either company. Im just having fun watching. This is my sports now!

[jonebone | 1,307]

I've dipped in my toes over the last week or two, established longs in KSS, BUD, CAKE, GME, SPY and XOM.  I fully expected the market to go lower but all of those are up since I bought.  At some point you just start dipping in your toes gradually and see what happens. 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

11 minutes ago, jonebone said:

I've dipped in my toes over the last week or two, established longs in KSS, BUD, CAKE, GME, SPY and XOM.  I fully expected the market to go lower but all of those are up since I bought.  At some point you just start dipping in your toes gradually and see what happens. 

I made my initial buy of XOM too early, but if they maintain their forever-history of not cutting dividends, I'll be happy with the outcome.

Definitely picked up some BUD along with KO and PEP, since beverages of all types are getting hammered due to school/event closings -- but of all things that will definitely "go back to normal" at some point, it will be junk-food drinking.

Been averaging into broader ETFs as well.

Still have more dry powder than is appropriate for my age to average in with, no matter whether things go up down or sideways, but psychologically it is a tough game to dump it all in at once, especially when watching the big down days during the volatility is taxing enough on the emotions!

Edited April 9, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[Makar | 1,946]

Picked up Disney, Johnson and Johnson, Pepsi, spirit, royal Caribbean, Apache, BIXT, and inovio over the past couple of weeks. Very pleased. My entire portfolio is actually up 57% since corona started and is the highest it's ever been by a good bit. Thank you corona for dirt cheap stocks. One of the only good things to come from corona.

[jonebone | 1,307]

Man GME is going to be the bane of my existance.  Dumped my $3.27 shares from last week at $4.50 yesterday. Happy with that week return, and offset the gain by dumping some old $11.50 shares I had.  Just wanted to reduce my GME position and put that into FDX.

Then today GME is up around $5.80 at the time of this post.  I still have a lot of shares averaged around $10 or so and believe in them long term but with so many things to buy these days I want to diversify more.

I really thought GME was doomed to channel between $3 and $5 for awhile but with it breaking through $5 who knows.  I should have doubled down a lot harder around $3 but didn't want to put more money into a loser than necessary.  

Even in coronavirus I still think the stock is a strong buy around $3-$3.50 if anyone gets another chance there.