POLL: 2020 Recession?

[phart010 | 1,705]

Who’s calling it

[phart010 | 1,705]

If we have a recession: Unfortunately there will be layoffs.  

I’m guessing CIB and sealed prices will pull back pretty significantly as people will liquidate valuable collectibles for cash so they can pay the bills.

[Quest4Nes | 376]

After this virus runs its course itll probably jump back up quickly to where it was.

[Jfreakofkorn | 282]

Doesn't look like its happening 

[Link | 2,707]

I’m not sure what I was on about

Edited March 16, 2020 by Link

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

8 hours ago, Quest4Nes said:

After this virus runs its course itll probably jump back up quickly to where it was.

The stock market value is not the economy, if that is what you are referring to quickly jumping back.

The level of shutdown going on, and the level of supply chain disruption and customer disruption is very real and will have a very real impact.

We may technically avoid a "recession" (two negative quarters) but we are definitely going to have at least a fairly major negative first quarter.

If closures roll into April, then second quarter is likely down as well, giving us a recession, in the sense of the definition of the term.

 

 

Just the impact of event cancellations, air travel and hotel cancellations, etc are going to be severe.  And that is before you trade those all the way down to the other service sector jobs that are related with things like restaurants.

 

 

And that is before you consider whether the oil war is a net negative, and consider how long it may drag out.

Edited March 15, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[jonebone | 1,307]

Tough to say. I would think recession is imminent but out Government doesn't let them happen. I.e. theyll pass trillions in stimulus, bail out the travel industry, etc.

I do think we are just getting started on feeling the pain and itll get much worse before it gets better. But I also think out Govt will do everything they can to mitigate the impacts. Whether or not they should is another debate though.

[Quest4Nes | 376]

On 3/15/2020 at 6:27 AM, arch_8ngel said:

The stock market value is not the economy, if that is what you are referring to quickly jumping back.

The level of shutdown going on, and the level of supply chain disruption and customer disruption is very real and will have a very real impact.

We may technically avoid a "recession" (two negative quarters) but we are definitely going to have at least a fairly major negative first quarter.

If closures roll into April, then second quarter is likely down as well, giving us a recession, in the sense of the definition of the term.

 

 

Just the impact of event cancellations, air travel and hotel cancellations, etc are going to be severe.  And that is before you trade those all the way down to the other service sector jobs that are related with things like restaurants.

 

 

And that is before you consider whether the oil war is a net negative, and consider how long it may drag out.

I'm not talking about the stock market. I'm talking about the economy as a whole. Its definitely taking a hit with this virus. I bet it shoots back up with a V shaped recovery. By definition we will probably have a slight recession. But we all know its going to be virus related.

[jonebone | 1,307]

10 minutes ago, Quest4Nes said:

I'm not talking about the stock market. I'm talking about the economy as a whole. Its definitely taking a hit with this virus. I bet it shoots back up with a V shaped recovery. By definition we will probably have a slight recession. But we all know its going to be virus related.

You realize there's an oil price war, the likes of which I'm not sure we've ever seen, happening at the moment too?  Not getting as much news obviously but Russia and Iran have basically agreed to screw their economies to spite ours.  The USA oil industry is going to get massive layoffs too that are not virus related. And if we're being told to stay home and not spend that money, the oil cost savings in our pocket won't amount to spending in the economy. 

[Tulpa | 3,488]

15 minutes ago, Quest4Nes said:

 By definition we will probably have a slight recession. But we all know its going to be virus related.

Who cares how it happened, it happened.

And this virus isn't going to blow over in a week. We're likely to see its effects for months.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

15 minutes ago, Quest4Nes said:

I'm not talking about the stock market. I'm talking about the economy as a whole. Its definitely taking a hit with this virus. I bet it shoots back up with a V shaped recovery. By definition we will probably have a slight recession. But we all know its going to be virus related.

I envy your optimism.

But with the current wave of closures, and the amount of deferred and cancelled travel, there is going to be a massive wave of service-sector layoffs coming.

It is unlikely that will just bounce back, and the real question will be how well the government can help stave off bankruptcies.

[Californication | 1,477]

I know there are Corona virus supply chain issues out of China, but do we still have tariffs against Chinese goods?

Edited March 16, 2020 by Californication

[Quest4Nes | 376]

6 minutes ago, Californication said:

I know there are Corona virus supply chain issues out of China, but do we still have tariffs against Chinese goods?

I havent read up on the trade deal. I remember hearing it was close.  Is it partially completed? put on hold?

Edited March 16, 2020 by Quest4Nes

[RH | 4,889]

I'll just quickly throw out my $.02 and mention that natural disasters (or in this case global pandemics) also tend to bring out the best in communities.  Sure, we hear stories on the media of looters and that is real and a problem, but you don't so often hear of the neighbors distributing and sharing what they have, clearing trees, sharing food and water, and helping one another.

This is certainly different than a hurricane or tornado but people that live in communities and run businesses and offices understand that this is stressful and a strain on everyone.  I have no clue how long this will go on, but I don't see people losing their jobs unless it's 100% necessary.  Yes, business and the flow of money in some regards is coming to a grinding halt.  That's an especially important factor for the US economy that is built on so much buying and selling, but people will do what they can do to help everyone which will have a longer term benefit on the resiliency of getting back to where we were.

Once this pandemic is said and done,  I see the economy springing back up to a healthy place rather quickly.  Not over night, but relatively fast.  Even the people that have lost their jobs should be able to find work, primarily because everyone will want to get back to work, and businesses will want to hit their respective markets as hard as they can to get back up to speed.  The stock market will recoup too.  It might take a bit longer because investors are going to want keep a portion of their money "safe", probably even going into an election because the outcome can make a big difference on the future.  Money in the bank for these institutions is finances that aren't pushing up stock prices.

By all technical definitions, we might enter a recession.  In fact, I think we technically are in one.  However, I just don't see this being really that impactful for the long run.  I'm not calling this a "small blip" but it is a serious event that is triggering investors to stop and re-evaluate their holdings and strategies going forward.  But, this experience is nothing like the credit crunch of 08.  If you've studied what happened back then, that was an unavoidable mess that could have been avoided had banks and bureaucrats not gotten in bed together and created the real shat-show that was the sub-prime lending industry.  This is primarily a problem of people having to stop and slow down.  Usually when we all stop and slow down our life and life-pace, we spend less.  But, when we get moving again, we spend again and that should boost the economy.

Again, just my $.02.

[Strange | 1,700]

For what his opinion is worth, my gf’s father is a very wealthy economist/businessman in Washington DC and he believes recession is inevitable at this point.

Edited March 16, 2020 by The Strangest

[phart010 | 1,705]

On 3/16/2020 at 11:48 AM, arch_8ngel said:

I envy your optimism.

But with the current wave of closures, and the amount of deferred and cancelled travel, there is going to be a massive wave of service-sector layoffs coming.

It is unlikely that will just bounce back, and the real question will be how well the government can help stave off bankruptcies.

It bounced back.... like a dead cat

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

21 minutes ago, phart010 said:

It bounced back.... like a dead cat

He was talking about the economy, at the time, not the stock market... but yeah, TBD on the quality of this bounce

 

[ICrappedMyPants | 302]

I think we will see a recession. We were slowing down before this virus, but the shutdown of the businesses and the economy is going to lead to a bad Q1 and likely Q2 at minimum. There will be corporate restructuring and higher unemployment which will lead to lower consumer spending. The travel, amusement park, movie, restaurant, sports and theater industries will will be hurt in Q2 as well.
 

I don’t see this virus passing in a few weeks. It’s going to be a rough next 6-8 months. We’re likely to see recurring swelling in cases. I think social distancing is going to be needed in spurts to curb the secondary rises. I don’t expect the shelter in places to be as significant, but I think people are going to be much more cautious and consumer spending will be impacted by this on top of high unemployment.

[phart010 | 1,705]

2 hours ago, ICrappedMyPants said:

I think we will see a recession. We were slowing down before this virus, but the shutdown of the businesses and the economy is going to lead to a bad Q1 and likely Q2 at minimum. There will be corporate restructuring and higher unemployment which will lead to lower consumer spending. The travel, amusement park, movie, restaurant, sports and theater industries will will be hurt in Q2 as well.
 

I don’t see this virus passing in a few weeks. It’s going to be a rough next 6-8 months. We’re likely to see recurring swelling in cases. I think social distancing is going to be needed in spurts to curb the secondary rises. I don’t expect the shelter in places to be as significant, but I think people are going to be much more cautious and consumer spending will be impacted by this on top of high unemployment.

Consumer spending down even when everyone gets an extra $1200 each month?

[Californication | 1,477]

3 minutes ago, phart010 said:

Consumer spending down even when everyone gets an extra $1200 each month?

It's not 1,200 a month. It is a means tested one time payment of 1,200. 

Bernie Sanders did get an additional $600 a week for people that get unemployment.

But think about the scale of the damage 3,000,000 new unemployment claims last week. What will this week be? 

I've signed up for paid family leave before and I have tried to sign up for unemployment, it is not an efficient process it is a slow process even when the system isn't jammed beyond capacity.

 

[ICrappedMyPants | 302]

37 minutes ago, Californication said:

It's not 1,200 a month. It is a means tested one time payment of 1,200. 

Bernie Sanders did get an additional $600 a week for people that get unemployment.

But think about the scale of the damage 3,000,000 new unemployment claims last week. What will this week be? 

I've signed up for paid family leave before and I have tried to sign up for unemployment, it is not an efficient process it is a slow process even when the system isn't jammed beyond capacity.

 

Yeah, it’s a 1 time payment. That amount is paltry when you think about someone’s mortgage, rent, utilities, food, and insurance when most Americans have no savings.

Edited March 27, 2020 by ICrappedMyPants

[phart010 | 1,705]

14 hours ago, ICrappedMyPants said:

Yeah, it’s a 1 time payment. That amount is paltry when you think about someone’s mortgage, rent, utilities, food, and insurance when most Americans have no savings.

Hmm. For some reason I was thinking it was monthly