The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....

[Doctornick | 419]

31 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

As I said we are all free to voice our opinions.  

Increased testing in the past has indicated higher rates of occurrence than previously believed - most likely due to an earlier  rate of occurrence than was previously believed.  (And at least in Colorado (I don't know about other states) a lot of the testing is done via drive ups/walkins - which is a somewhat undisciplined way to collect (and therefore fully analyze) data. IMHO of course.

But to ask again - is the antibody testing (barring repeat testing of same samples) able to pinpoint when someone got virus?  

And is (at least in New York - and maybe other jurisdictions) contact tracing being skewed away from reporting attendance at the various protests/etc.etc. ?  Seems to be a really important thing to trace given the the size of those, the lack of social distancing and often a  lack of masks. 

Somewhat OT - this is neither the time nor place bur I can tell you some real horror  stories about the "medical profestionals" I worked with at a state hopsital - most of the doctors could not practice without having one of the few licensed doctors (who often had problems of their own) had to countersign everything they did.  And I got to see at least one patient die (and probably two) due to some pretty severe incompetence.   Does this mean every medical professional is problematic - no - but the percentage was sadly ridiulously high where I worked.  

 

I know what you're getting at and antibody tests (which aren't used in the hospitals) aren't indicative of an active case. Typically  it takes weeks for your body to create the antibodies after infection.  Also increased testing DOES NOT lead to the number of increases we have seen, we would see a significantly smaller increase in confirmed cases if it wasn't still spreading rapidly. 

I have no clue about contact tracing from the protests, nor do I believe they are skewing data.  I can tell you with certainty we will see that spike in another week or two.  Right now we are seeing why opening bars, gyms, restaurants, etc was a terrible idea.  The protests impact will probably be negligible compared to what was started by not having longer and more strict lockdowns.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Doctornick

[Tabonga | 2,317]

Without seeing the increased testing numbers (and more importantly perhaps where they are being drawn from)   makes it hard to to do much of anything with the information from casual observations.

Mrs.Tabonga at one point in her career analyzed contact tracing data and she certainly considers essentially ignoring/suppressing data about the protests/etc/etc. to be a serious breach of protocol as such things go. Kinda like trying to trace HIV paths but only asking about IV drug use. She also had to periodically deal with people trying to make her play  Mendel with the data to suit their goals.

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

1 hour ago, Tabonga said:

Without seeing the increased testing numbers (and more importantly perhaps where they are being drawn from)   makes it hard to to do much of anything with the information from casual observations.

Mrs.Tabonga at one point in her career analyzed contact tracing data and she certainly considers essentially ignoring/suppressing data about the protests/etc/etc. to be a serious breach of protocol as such things go. Kinda like trying to trace HIV paths but only asking about IV drug use. She also had to periodically deal with people trying to make her play  Mendel with the data to suit their goals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-protests.html
 

Here is a summary of the info from New York. They also link to Minnesota. 

[Link | 2,709]

2 hours ago, spacepup said:

 

I think the voices and opinions of people who are struggling right now due to the lockdowns are absolutely valid, and important for us to hear.  I do think it's important for all of us to think about all of the different ramifications and consequences of what is happening. 

Mainly, I want other people to know they’re not alone. 

 

[Doctornick | 419]

42 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-protests.html
 

Here is a summary of the info from New York. They also link to Minnesota. 

The outdoor facet of the protests is why I think it's going to be negligible compared to all of the people going to bars and restaurants or other indoor venues.  It's definitely going to contribute to the increased cases, but not nearly as much as opening everything in early May has.  

It's almost like I said that once already , I appreciate you posting an article though.  I'm way too lazy to do that.

Edited July 3, 2020 by Doctornick
I can't spell

[B.A. | 1,139]

1 minute ago, Doctornick said:

The outdoor facet of the protests is why I think it's going to be negligible compared to all of the people going to bars and restaurants or other indoor venues.  It's definitely going to contribute to the increased cases, but not nearly as much as opening everything in early May has.  

It's almost like I said that once already

Fine. Then let me stop social distancing outside. It's ok if I'm protesting, but it's not ok if I want to have my kids 7th birthday in my backyard with actual friends.

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

Just now, Doctornick said:

The outdoor facet of the protests is why I think it's going to be negligible compared to all of the people going to bars and restaurants or other indoor venues.  It's definitely going to contribute to the increased cases, but not nearly as much as opening everything in early May has.  

It's almost like I said that once already

That and common sense lol. Its obvious that being outside the dropplets would dissipate quicker and easier.
 

I wish it was more about personal responsibility than trying to exercise “freedom” 

[Doctornick | 419]

6 minutes ago, B.A. said:

Fine. Then let me stop social distancing outside. It's ok if I'm protesting, but it's not ok if I want to have my kids 7th birthday in my backyard with actual friends.

As long as you aren't going to have a huge group and people are wearing masks I don't see a problem.  Also this country NEVER had outdoor social distancing actually enforced, which is why we are where we are at this point.  If it's a group of people you know are wearing masks and being extremely safe then you should have a party for your kid.

[Doctornick | 419]

9 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

That and common sense lol. Its obvious that being outside the dropplets would dissipate quicker and easier.
 

I wish it was more about personal responsibility than trying to exercise “freedom” 

I saw a sign on some article that said dicks out for COVID, wearing pants isn't freedom.  I have to admit that feels disgustingly relatable to today's society in the US

[B.A. | 1,139]

Just now, Doctornick said:

As long as you aren't going to have a huge group and people are wearing masks I don't see a problem.  Also this country NEVER had outdoor social distancing actually enforced, which is why we are where we are at this point.  If it's a group of people you know are wearing masks and being extremely safe then you should have a party for your kid.

That's the thing, I watched Minneapolis burn down, very closely. The vast majority weren't wearing masks while outside and on top of each other. Some were, but not most. And locally we simply haven't seen covid repercussions for that (plenty of other repercussions). So...no. I don't want to wear a mask when I'm outdoors celebrating a birthday party or having a picnic. I will when going shopping. And I find it completely insincere when the government will enforce social distancing rules when outdoors for recreational activities but allow protests. The virus doesn't care, so the rules regarding the event shouldn't either. 

[Doctornick | 419]

4 minutes ago, B.A. said:

That's the thing, I watched Minneapolis burn down, very closely. The vast majority weren't wearing masks while outside and on top of each other. Some were, but not most. And locally we simply haven't seen covid repercussions for that (plenty of other repercussions). So...no. I don't want to wear a mask when I'm outdoors celebrating a birthday party or having a picnic. I will when going shopping. And I find it completely insincere when the government will enforce social distancing rules when outdoors for recreational activities but allow protests. The virus doesn't care, so the rules regarding the event shouldn't either. 

I don't think there was an option to allow the protests, but that's got its own thread for the time being.  I can't relate to watching my city get destroyed, but I can relate to seeing young healthy people either die from Covid/complications from it or survive with permanent damage to their lungs.  Again that's a small amount of people who get it, but not worth it to me or anybody I care about when all it takes is staying home more than usual and wearing a mask.

[Tabonga | 2,317]

17 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

The outdoor facet of the protests is why I think it's going to be negligible compared to all of the people going to bars and restaurants or other indoor venues.  

Quote

 Also this -  NEVER had outdoor social distancing actually enforced, which is why we are where we are at this point.  

 

And how much social distancing was occurring as people were looting stores?  The videos I saw looked like a version of the Oklahoma land rush.

Some of the videos I saw of the fires had people clustered very close together and  fairly close to fires - wouldn't that have warmed them up, made them sweat and breath heavier.?

(I grew up in Minnesota so I know how the extremely high humidity exacerbates both heat (either natural or from external sources) and cold. - so another factor in at least the upper midwest.)

 

[Doctornick | 419]

7 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

And how much social distancing was occurring as people were looting stores?  The videos I saw looked like a version of the Oklahoma land rush.

Some of the videos I saw of the fires had people clustered very close together and  fairly close to fires - wouldn't that have warmed them up, made them sweat and breath heavier.?

(I grew up in Minnesota so I know how the extremely high humidity exacerbates both heat (either natural or from external sources) and cold. - so another factor in at least the upper midwest.)

 

Dude none, where did I ever say those protests were safe or smart?!?  I believe in what they stand for, and I get why people went out and did it.  That seems way more logical to me than going to a bar to get hammered or eating at Applebee's, and neither was a good idea.  It's painful that lots of medical staff wish this virus was more dangerous so that the point got across to people. 

I'm glad to see people speaking out about their mental health being harmed by this, just imagine the mental health of professionals who want to prevent this virus being constantly ignored and argued with dozens of times each day.  If I ever got into legal trouble for example I wouldn't argue or debate with a lawyer, because I didn't spend years studying law.  I can't really see any of my family because of how high risk I could be to some of them.  Demonize the protests all you want, but don't act like just because they happened it's fine to keep everything open and business as usual when this country is dwarfing the rest of the world in COVID statistics, and they keep growing rapidly each day.

[Tabonga | 2,317]

1 minute ago, Doctornick said:

Dude none, where did I ever say those protests were safe or smart?!?  I believe in what they stand for, and I get why people went out and did it.  That seems way more logical to me than going to a bar to get hammered or eating at Applebee's, and neither was a good idea.  It's painful that lots of medical staff wish this virus was more dangerous so that the point got across to people. 

You did seem to minimize the  problem because they were outdoors. And just because B and C are arguably (and I agree) worse (in terms of spreading things) it does not make the case for giving A a pass.

(And in one place  you hope the outdoor exposure is neglible but on the other hand you say not enforcing outdoor social distancing was a major contributor to our current situaltion).

[Doctornick | 419]

4 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

You did seem to minimize the  problem because they were outdoors. And just because B and C are arguably (and I agree) worse (in terms of spreading things) it does not make the case for giving A a pass.

(And in one place  you hope the outdoor exposure is neglible but on the other hand you say not enforcing outdoor social distancing was a major contributor to our current situaltion).

I'll reiterate more bluntly, the protests were also very unsafe and will contribute to the increased spread of COVID, but since they occured weeks to a month after people started spending time together indoors the impact from the protests isn't going to be that large.  I'm not giving the protests a pass by saying I understand why people went out and protested.  I am saying that people gathering at businesses indoors contributed significantly more than protesting outdoors (had the protests occured before openings this would be different).  I hope that makes sense, if not I'm done debating about the protests. 

Just remember that each person choosing unnecessary activities combined with how many of those people aren't wearing masks could soon negatively impact your life or someone you care about.  I pray that doesn't happen to you or anybody you know, it's pretty brutal to watch unfold and sends people down some dark and hard to return from pathways.

[Link | 2,709]

53 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

I wish it was more about personal responsibility than trying to exercise “freedom” 

I give this post a 10

33 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

just imagine the mental health of professionals who want to prevent this virus being constantly ignored and argued with dozens of times each day.  If I ever got into legal trouble for example I wouldn't argue or debate with a lawyer, because I didn't spend years studying law.

same

[B.A. | 1,139]

51 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

I don't think there was an option to allow the protests, but that's got its own thread for the time being.  I can't relate to watching my city get destroyed, but I can relate to seeing young healthy people either die from Covid/complications from it or survive with permanent damage to their lungs.  Again that's a small amount of people who get it, but not worth it to me or anybody I care about when all it takes is staying home more than usual and wearing a mask.

And I can relate to the unintended side effects of medical advice only concerned with covid. To me I'd simply rather take the risk. 

[Tabonga | 2,317]

7 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

 

Just remember that each person choosing unnecessary activities combined with how many of those people aren't wearing masks could soon negatively impact your life or someone you care about.  I pray that doesn't happen to you or anybody you know, it's pretty brutal to watch unfold and sends people down some dark and hard to return from pathways.

While I am at a normal risk (however one could determine that) I am probably the most likely to kick off from it on these boards if I get it.  But other than sealing myself and Mrs. Tabonga in a cave with enough krations to last god  knows how long I have to take my chances.  I either get it or I don't and if I get it I either die or I don't Fatalistic -you bet but I am Scandinavian and the whole Ragnorak meme runs deep. (I also grew up with a very well drilled in threat of nuclear annhilation - I even got to do those wonderful duck and cover drills.

We have discussed this before, but barring a really effective vaccine (which would need to be much much more efficacious than usual vaccines we come up with for the flue each year) we have to come out of the hidey holes at some point in time.  Without a vaccine (which may never be found)it will be the same story every time we emerge. And how much more damage can the economy stand?  As I said before we are already on the tin foil standard and not that far off from the ball of string.  So it may just be a matter of time until society has to take the hit and move on.

[Doctornick | 419]

10 minutes ago, B.A. said:

And I can relate to the unintended side effects of medical advice only concerned with covid. To me I'd simply rather take the risk. 

That's your decision man, and the more people who make that decision the more dangerous the virus becomes.  I sincerely hope that the risk doesn't have any consequences at all for you other than being able to enjoy life more 

[Doctornick | 419]

10 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

While I am at a normal risk (however one could determine that) I am probably the most likely to kick off from it on these boards if I get it.  But other than sealing myself and Mrs. Tabonga in a cave with enough krations to last god  knows how long I have to take my chances.  I either get it or I don't and if I get it I either die or I don't Fatalistic -you bet but I am Scandinavian and the whole Ragnorak meme runs deep. (I also grew up with a very well drilled in threat of nuclear annhilation - I even got to do those wonderful duck and cover drills.

We have discussed this before, but barring a really effective vaccine (which would need to be much much more efficacious than usual vaccines we come up with for the flue each year) we have to come out of the hidey holes at some point in time.  Without a vaccine (which may never be found)it will be the same story every time we emerge. And how much more damage can the economy stand?  As I said before we are already on the tin foil standard and not that far off from the ball of string.  So it may just be a matter of time until society has to take the hit and move on.

Look at how countries like Spain and Italy dealt with it, we already had the directions and just royally screwed the pooch with them.  Actual serious lockdowns would have worked, but instead we had half-assed ones that failed because they weren't strict enough nor long enough.  I personally don't care about the economy tanking when people being forced to work at gas stations and grocery stores were getting paid peanuts.  I'm fortunate that drowning myself in massive debt gave me an extremely well paying career, but until the wage gap is addressed in this country the economy isn't a concern of mine other than when I'm voting.

Edited July 3, 2020 by Doctornick

[B.A. | 1,139]

14 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

That's your decision man, and the more people who make that decision the more dangerous the virus becomes.  I sincerely hope that the risk doesn't have any consequences at all for you other than being able to enjoy life more 

And the more people who strictly adhere to only worrying about covid infection the more people will suffer mental health or economic distress. I sincerely hope that risk doesn't have any consequences for you.

[Tulpa | 3,491]

7 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

I personally don't care about the economy tanking when people being forced to work at gas stations and grocery stores were getting paid peanuts.  I'm fortunate that drowning myself in massive debt gave me an extremely well paying career, but until the wage gap is addressed in this country the economy isn't a concern of mine other than when I'm voting.

Yeah, I don't get the economy argument.

It was going to take a hit whether we lock down or whether people are dying way more than they are now (which would lead to worse panics, ostracizing, and spreading the virus.)

I'd rather do the lockdown thing and have a hope of recovery.

[Tabonga | 2,317]

3 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

Look at how countries like Spain and Italy dealt with it, we already had the directions and just royally screwed the pooch with them.  Actual serious lockdowns would have worked, but instead we had half-assed ones that failed because they weren't strict enough nor long enough.  I personally don't care about the economy tanking when people being forced to work at gas stations and grocery stores were getting paid peanuts.  I'm fortunate that drowning myself in massive debt gave me an extremely well paying career, but until the wage gap is addressed in this country the economy isn't a concern of mine other than when I'm voting.

I am set for money (not rich but the wolf is in the alley and not on the stoop).  If the economy tanks it may well take me with it.  But it isn't all aabout me (or you) -there are a lot of people who are sufferning now and more will do so once the government turns off the magic money machine. Sometimes a more global perspective -as Spock would say "sometimes the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the rew".is appropriate.

My parents (both of whom lived through the really hard times of the Great Depression) told me enough stories that were harrowing enough that working in for peanuts anywhere would appear to be utopia. 

teThings were indeed mishandled - but part of that was due to not knowing enough about the virus and the rest was due to the shenanigans going on in various nations (not to veer into politics.  Hindsight is not terribly useful  though - but I think we would have done better protecing the really vulnerable (such as in extended care facilities) and largely letting the thing run its course - most of the non vulnerable population seems to either get a mild case or not even know they have been exposed.  would we have had deaths - you bet - but we have them anyway.

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/02/coronavirus-how-does-californias-surge-compare-to-florida-arizona-and-texas/
 

California is opening back up, construction in silicon valley is starting again and its a 50 billion dollar industry. We followed the advice and closed down early and people are good about masks and distancing (here in bay area). For such a populous state with a huge international and interstate economy, are stats are pretty good. 

Bay area has 7.5 new cases per capita compared to 22.9 for so cal (sorry @Tulpa
 

The proof is there

[Tulpa | 3,491]

Heh, we do have idiots down here. A lot of those people throwing fits about wearing masks in stores are happening in SoCal.