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The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....


jonebone

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23 hours ago, B.A. said:

Yes, because it's not usually fatal. And no I might not "have fun" but I will survive, just like I have other viruses, and will get new ones later. That's life.

Bingo, this political and hysteria ginning up media bs is getting tiresome.

I'll be cold and icy about this, whatever.  Currently we're at around what a 330M population and we're more or less about at 120K deaths from it right?  I was curious earlier ago and ran a calculator on it (yeah not hard to do) and well the US based death rate on this is 0.04% of the total living population.

Should things have been handled better and a-politically earlier on?  Damn right.  Perhaps we should have just said screw April and locked up everything for 4 weeks but that didn't happen.  And given how Americans (and many countries really) are about their level of freedoms, good luck locking people back up in their homes costing more jobs, income, homes,  livelihood yet again because of the viral boogeyman.  I think you'll see some outright large scale protest, riots, and other shenanigans and given the current environment about cops and policing at any level right now, that'll be a solid mix of issues.

I'm not trying to be a cold dick about it, and it's not cool when people suffer then die from well, anything, but at what level do we look at a 0.04% mortality rate of the virus against the total population of this country (or whatever the % is in all the others) and call what has gone on and continue acceptable at all?  Right now we have an improving understanding of things, and it seems masks are going a large way into helping, as well as just not being stupid and sticking dirty fingers in your eyes, mouth...face in general too.  It seems more or less aerosolized anyway for the best worst means of spreading and seemingly more or less only if you're showing signs, but if you're asymptomatic so far they believe the chance is very low.  Our testing levels at this rate are just over 10% which is crap, so it's fair to say the numbers we have as far as walking/formerly walking cases with it are likely hot garbage, but seeing they test anyone walking into a hospital with it, or those dead of it, those they're far more firm about.  For all we know, a majority of people in the US and around are carriers or have carried it at this rate given how long it took to lock stuff down anyway.  (Not likely) For all we know some level of herd immunity people like to dump on over could really potentially be happening at this rate.

 

 

And fcgamer again is on the nose about the WHO and their pandering bs to the Chinese, and now more than ever will they be their lapdogs considering when the US bailed out others will have to step up.  And as for Dr Tedros, it's not the first spread of fatal disease he has gone on to downplay and shift attention, he has a pattern of it before leading the WHO.

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What a dangerous and selfish way to look at this.  We are also at 120k deaths with a near complete lockdown, can you imagine what that number might be over three months if we hadn't?  Not to mention the 10s of thousands of people indirectly killed by it due to lack of hospital beds/resources/staff.

Someone tell me how this is "hurting" your life by being forced to stay home from non-essential business?  Or better yet how it would hurt your life more than having a friend/loved one get sick enough to have permanent damage to their body or possibly die than being able to go to a water park or zoo?

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24 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

 

Someone tell me how this is "hurting" your life by being forced to stay home from non-essential business?  Or better yet how it would hurt your life more than having a friend/loved one get sick enough to have permanent damage to their body or possibly die than being able to go to a water park or zoo?

Not "hurting" my life much at all -but it would be extremely selfish for me to view it in that narrow a perspective - my pension rolls in every month no matter what and I have always been an introvert in any event.  Not going political but where is the money coming from to support everyone that is hunkered down - I suppose the Federal government can keep printing erastz money -  which is going to lead to an increasingly weak economy (we are pretty much on the tin foil standard heading for the ball of sting....) The states and cities are beginning to feel the pinch since their revenues have fallen precipitously and guess who they are going to go to cap in hand for help?  (And those cities that have suffered from the riots are going to be in even worse shape as they will need to come up with the scratch to rebuild.)

In an ideal world we could just hunker down for 10 years or whatever (there may never be a vaccine).While most epidemics  do burn themselves out that generally only happens when the public is  widely exposed  to the disease and it gets to the point where it has nowhere to go.

Plus there is the mental health aspect - I suspect suicide and domestic violence is going to sharply rise the longer everyone is cooped up.

Do I have any ideal  solutions? - no - but the longer things continue the less they can be viewed as strictly a medical/epidemiological problem.

Edited by Tabonga
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8 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

Not "hurting" my life much at all -but it would be extremely selfish for me to view it in that narrow a perspective - my pension rolls in every month no matter what and I have always been an introvert in any event.  Not going political but where is the money coming from to support everyone that is hunkered down - I suppose the Federal government can keep printing erastz money -  which is going to lead to an increasingly weak economy (we are pretty much on the tin foil standard heading for the ball of sting....) The states and cities are beginning to feel the pinch since their revenues have fallen precipitously and guess who they are going to go to cap in hand for help?  (And those cities that have suffered from the riots are going to be in even worse shape as they will need to come up with the scratch to rebuild.)

In an ideal world we could just hunker down for 10 years or whatever (there may never be a vaccine).While most epidemics  do burn themselves out that generally only happens when the public is  widely exposed  to the disease and it gets to the point where it has nowhere to go.

Plus there is the mental health aspect - I suspect suicide and domestic violence is going to sharply rise the longer everyone is cooped up.

Do I have any ideal  solutions? - no - but the longer things continue the less they can be viewed as strictly a medical/epidemiological problem.

We are already in a recession, and I'm sure our wonderful people in charge could easily find plenty of fat to trim from our budgets from local all the way up to federal levels.  I guess as a "healer" in the sense of the word I could care less about the economy when it means the loss of life.  

We're in an unusual and definitely once in a lifetime situation right now.  I think taking care of our people should take priority over making them go back to work which can be just as mentally harmful to some as staying shut in to others is.  I haven't looked at anything regarding domestic violence, but suicides have definitely increased during this period.  People can easily still go out to parks/visit friends in small settings while keeping this virus under much better control.  We're on a very slippery slope but I don't see how anybody could argue that being overly cautious outweighs relaxing restrictions too much.  Take a look at what's happening in Texas right now, if they don't go back into lockdown we are going to see NY levels of death and lack of hospital beds for all very soon.

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32 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

We are already in a recession, and I'm sure our wonderful people in charge could easily find plenty of fat to trim from our budgets from local all the way up to federal levels.  I guess as a "healer" in the sense of the word I could care less about the economy when it means the loss of life.  

We're in an unusual and definitely once in a lifetime situation right now.  I think taking care of our people should take priority over making them go back to work which can be just as mentally harmful to some as staying shut in to others is.  I haven't looked at anything regarding domestic violence, but suicides have definitely increased during this period.  People can easily still go out to parks/visit friends in small settings while keeping this virus under much better control.  We're on a very slippery slope but I don't see how anybody could argue that being overly cautious outweighs relaxing restrictions too much.  Take a look at what's happening in Texas right now, if they don't go back into lockdown we are going to see NY levels of death and lack of hospital beds for all very soon.

It keeps up we will be in a depression - we have not been in one since the thirties but from the stories my parents told me I don't think we want to go there.

From a historical perspective humanity has survived (which in the grand scheme of things is the most important goal unless one is a diehard (as it were) nihilist) far worse pandemics.  This one (even at its worst projections) is tinker toys compared to the 1918 one to say nothing of the various waves of the plague that hit Europe in the middle ages - the earliest wave took out upwards of 3/4 of the European population (the last wave in England only really ended when most of London burned down!)

At some point in time society may just have to take the hit (and I say this being fully cognizant that I am one of the most vulnerable (if not the most vulnerable)  people here to shuffle off to Buffalo as a result*).   Either that or likely face a death of a thousand cuts.

*But it isn't all about just me.  🤢

Edited by Tabonga
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13 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

It keeps up we will be in a depression - we have not been in one since the thirties but from the stories my parents told me I don't think we want to go there.

From a historical perspective humanity has survived (which in the grand scheme of things is the most important goal unless one is a diehard (as it were) nihilist) far worse pandemics.  This one (even at its worst projections) is tinker toys compared to the 1918 one to say nothing of the various waves of the plague that hit Europe in the middle ages - the earliest wave took out upwards of 3/4 of the European population (the last wave in England only really ended when most of London burned down!)

At some point in time society may just have to take the hit (and I say this being fully cognizant that I am one of the most vulnerable (if not the most vulnerable)  people here to shuffle off to Buffalo as a result*).   Either that or likely face a death of a thousand cuts.

*But it isn't all about just me.  🤢

It's definitely something in the back of my mind (just letting it run its course), and I just wanted to say I appreciate you keeping politics out of it.  I guess we are going to have to wait and see how it all plays out over the next 6 months or so.  

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Yeah - it is not that I don't understand your position - IMHO unfortunately hunkering down seems to be (to paraphrase a popular adage) a long walk off a pier that is not quire as long.   

Heh - I just wish we could keep the politicians out of it.

OT - Are you familiar with the HIV and the village of Eyam connection?

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4 hours ago, Doctornick said:

What a dangerous and selfish way to look at this.  We are also at 120k deaths with a near complete lockdown, can you imagine what that number might be over three months if we hadn't?  Not to mention the 10s of thousands of people indirectly killed by it due to lack of hospital beds/resources/staff.

Someone tell me how this is "hurting" your life by being forced to stay home from non-essential business?  Or better yet how it would hurt your life more than having a friend/loved one get sick enough to have permanent damage to their body or possibly die than being able to go to a water park or zoo?

Exactly.   Had the lockdown not happened I'm sure those same people would be bitching about why the government didn't do anything.

I'm also a realist and realize that we can't be hermits forever, and there's gotta be safe ways to open back up (which seems to be so far so good in Ohio).

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10 minutes ago, captmorgandrinker said:

I'm also a realist and realize that we can't be hermits forever, and there's gotta be safe ways to open back up (which seems to be so far so good in Ohio).

Everything seems to be going fairly well here around Cincinnati. The only issue I've heard of is the restaurant where my friend works having to close for a few days to clean everything after having a worker test positive when they came in, but it's my understanding that they will be opening back up after they finish cleaning.

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On 6/13/2020 at 8:41 AM, NESfiend said:

Fair enough.

The question I have been wanting to ask a doctor is about surfaces and gloves. I wear a mask but haven't been wearing gloves. Initially touching anything/everything was a big concern. Then I heard that subsequent research showed the virus doesn't survive on surfaces very long. And Ive heard doctor after doctor push wearing a mask, but gloves not as much. Is that true about surfaces? Is it really only primarily transmitted by human contact?

Early on I heard the virus can live on:
Plastic and steel for up to 3 days
Cardboard for 24 hours
Copper for 4 hours

That’s mostly longer than makes me comfortable in crowded places, but handwashing (20+ seconds of lathering, which breaks the “skin” of the virus) and avoiding touching face sounds good. And yes if your hands have just been washed correctly, then it’s ok.
I have not heard any updates to that; doctors, please advise. In general (copper being an outlier for no reason I’ve seen) it dries out and dies faster on more pourous surfaces; especially clothing. 
Gloves don’t prevent cross-contamination and are not helpful unless you change them very often. Touch a steel door that someone breathed on, then touch your face — virus might ride on your hand whether gloved or not. 

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33 minutes ago, Link said:

That is strange, indeed. Any reportage on this? 

I heard it as a clip on the radio (the clip was likely originally on one of the local tv stations (probably Channel 9) - I know I didn't catch it there since I never watch the local stations).

Here is a reference to it:

Kyle Clark is a reporter for Channel 9.

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1 hour ago, captmorgandrinker said:

Exactly.   Had the lockdown not happened I'm sure those same people would be bitching about why the government didn't do anything.

I'm also a realist and realize that we can't be hermits forever, and there's gotta be safe ways to open back up (which seems to be so far so good in Ohio).

So the only bad thing here is we are basically throwing the floodgates open way too quick.  In less than a month we went from full lockdown to almost everything open again.  Dr. Acton was in the national spotlight for handling this perfectly, and there's a reason she resigned out of nowhere.  She wasn't being listened to any longer.  I would just continue being cautious, and definitely don't go anywhere bigger than small, local restaurants.  

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53 minutes ago, Link said:

Early on I heard the virus can live on:
Plastic and steel for up to 3 days
Cardboard for 24 hours
Copper for 4 hours

That’s mostly longer than makes me comfortable in crowded places, but handwashing (20+ seconds of lathering, which breaks the “skin” of the virus) and avoiding touching face sounds good. And yes if your hands have just been washed correctly, then it’s ok.
I have not heard any updates to that; doctors, please advise. In general (copper being an outlier for no reason I’ve seen) it dries out and dies faster on more pourous surfaces; especially clothing. 
Gloves don’t prevent cross-contamination and are not helpful unless you change them very often. Touch a steel door that someone breathed on, then touch your face — virus might ride on your hand whether gloved or not. 

I thought cardboard was three days.

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18 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

So the only bad thing here is we are basically throwing the floodgates open way too quick.  In less than a month we went from full lockdown to almost everything open again.  Dr. Acton was in the national spotlight for handling this perfectly, and there's a reason she resigned out of nowhere.  She wasn't being listened to any longer.  I would just continue being cautious, and definitely don't go anywhere bigger than small, local restaurants.  

I think people quit listening because she went way overboard, even saying to expect 10,000 cases a day in Ohio at one point. She resigned as the Ohio Department of Health director, but took a job as the chief health advisor to the Governor, so she didn't really go anywhere.

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7 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

I think people quit listening because she went way overboard, even saying to expect 10,000 cases a day in Ohio at one point. She resigned as the Ohio Department of Health director, but took a job as the chief health advisor to the Governor, so she didn't really go anywhere.

Ah I hadn't seen that she moved to that position, still a much smaller scale than what she was doing for the entire state.  I don't remember her saying 10,000 a day, but I believe you.  I think we are heading towards a thousand plus a day, but that honestly depends more on how much testing we can get done.  It definitely has the capability to spread that quickly.

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10 minutes ago, Californication said:

I thought cardboard was three days.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

SARS-CoV-2 was more stable on plastic and stainless steel than on copper and cardboard, and viable virus was detected up to 72 hours after application to these surfaces (Figure 1A), although the virus titer was greatly reduced (from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter of medium after 72 hours on plastic and from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter after 48 hours on stainless steel). The stability kinetics of SARS-CoV-1 were similar (from 103.4 to 100.7TCID50 per milliliter after 72 hours on plastic and from 103.6 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter after 48 hours on stainless steel). On copper, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 4 hours and no viable SARS-CoV-1 was measured after 8 hours. On cardboard, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 24 hours and no viable SARS-CoV-1 was measured after 8 hours (Figure 1A).

(sorry if that’s hard to read. I didn’t want to get political by posting a liberal mainstream media like USA Today .  )

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2 minutes ago, Doctornick said:

Ah I hadn't seen that she moved to that position, still a much smaller scale than what she was doing for the entire state.  I don't remember her saying 10,000 a day, but I believe you.  I think we are heading towards a thousand plus a day, but that honestly depends more on how much testing we can get done.  It definitely has the capability to spread that quickly.

She said it early on and wasn't even close. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkyc.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/dr-amy-acton-ohios-coronavirus-peak-could-see-10000-new-daily-cases/95-e81b504d-793d-4141-a3a8-4ddccccf2925

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5 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

Yikes, that's an overshoot with distancing.  I could see that being possible without any distancing at all but not with it.  I guess we will find out in the next few weeks here though, we are already seeing many more cases in the Akron/Canton area this past week.

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Just now, Doctornick said:

Yikes, that's an overshoot with distancing.  I could see that being possible without any distancing at all but not with it.  I guess we will find out in the next few weeks here though, we are already seeing many more cases in the Akron/Canton area this past week.

In Cincinnati, it's barely even news anymore with everything else going on, but Southwest Ohio wasn't one of the harder hit areas to begin with.

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Just now, Bearcat-Doug said:

In Cincinnati, it's barely even news anymore with everything else going on, but Southwest Ohio wasn't one of the harder hit areas to begin with.

That's good!  Stay safe man, and thanks for the input.  It's hard to stay on top of the news without talking to someone in the area, seeing as every outlet just wants the most views or listeners.

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