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The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....


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Airlines won't call travelers' COVID-19 vaccination proof 'vaccine passports'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airlines-wont-call-travelers-covid-19-vaccination-proof-vaccine-passports-110015915.html

The key, of course, is for a passenger to prove they have been vaccinated. Countries like Israel and China are already using digital certificates to allow citizens to travel while New York state is using The Excelsior Pass. These digital documents allow people to "present digital proof of COVID-19 vaccination or negative test results." They are often called vaccine passports but Delta Air Lines (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian told Yahoo Finance Live, "We don't call it a vaccine passport. It carries too many connotations."   

It's going to be interesting to see what is acceptable proof of vaccination and/or negative results. At any rate, hopefully most everyone here has received the vaccine! I got my second dose last week 🙂

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just got my j&j. I was just in the middle of grocery shopping and an announcement came up saying they had some extra vaccine if anyone wanted some. Last month they were super hard to get. Today it was literally an impulse while I was putting bread in my cart.

And now im done!

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I got my second Moderna shot Monday morning and am now just waiting the last two weeks for full immunity to kick in.

The shot itself was slightly worse than the first, but I believe that's because it was a couple of moments longer due to getting more vaccine the second time around.  The phlebotomists employed by my local Walmart still stand head and shoulders above 99% of the people I've had stick needles in me over the years.  Felt fine immediately afterward and did a little shopping before packing it in and heading home.  It was only 9-10 hours later that I started feeling any effects at all, starting to feel a little something in all the areas where my lymph nodes should be.  Started feeling progressively more "blah" for the next 2-3 hours until I decided to just go to sleep.

I woke up within an hour or two feeling cold, despite having a blanket on my lower half, so I ended up mummy wrapping myself from waist to feet in one blanket and doing the same on my upper body with another, then comfortably able to drift off to sleep.  I initially felt like I was about to have chills, but managed to kill that sensation before it started by getting super warm.  Sleep was fitful, but I was mostly mentally out of it until around 5:00-5:30 AM, at which point I woke up and couldn't go back to sleep.  I was aware of exactly how hot I was wrapped up, but was ok with it, even though I was mentally aware that I should be uncomfortable since it wasn't making me drowsy.  Checked my temperature and I was up about a degree and a half.

The blah feeling was omnipresent and most everything ached a bit, with me being acutely aware of where my lymph nodes were, pretty much throughout my body.  I managed to grab the remote and put something on the TV to keep me distracted while I waited throughout the day to have things progress and, hopefully, feel better.  @Rhapsody98 got up and got the kids going, asking me if I'd still be able to keep the little one under control, and I said yes, she was usually mostly good and shouldn't be a problem.  I bargained with my daughter, explaining that I felt bad and that she could watch whatever she wanted, so long as it wasn't "bunnies" (a kids Netflix show whose episodes are 3-5 minutes long, so you've got to tell it you're still watching every 10-15 minutes instead of every couple of hours) and she actually agreed.  I settled back into my blankets, my wife dropped off some noodle soup for me then went off with my son to virtual school, and my daughter settled in right next to me to watch cartoons.

I'm pretty sure I napped off and on throughout the time that school was going on (from about 8:00 AM to around 12:00-1:00 PM), as I kept my eyes shut and just tried to relax, but still had those "fever dream" moments, whether I was trying to nap or not, so I'm not sure.  However, by the time everyone brought me around to full awareness and attention by thundering down the stairs at the end of the school day, I wasn't feeling nearly as bad.  The blah feeling was mostly gone, I was no longer fevered, and while I was feeling weak and a bit sore (almost entirely where my lyphn nodes were), I no longer actively ached, although I had the hint of an almost-headache at the back of my head.  I got up, stretched, then shuffled into the kitchen to take some acetominophen.  Started feeling altogether better within 20-30 minutes, although I was still a little stiff and weak.  Watched a couple of movies with the wife then got treated to burgers and fries for a late lunch before giving up control of the TV and re-dosing myself with store brand Tylenol before enjoying another movie with the wife.

I ended up drifting off to what I thought was a nap but ended up just being full on sleep, semi-waking up again around 5:45 AM this morning.  I decided I wasn't nearly ready for the day and settled back in to take a few more naps (kept sleeping then waking up briefly every 20-30 minutes) before finally waking up completely just a bit after my alarm should have gone off.  Other than the soreness in the arm where I got the shot (at/around the site of the shot), most everything was gone when I got up today.  However, upon trying to run around the house and do normal things, I found myself feeling a bit tired and run down, but on par with how one feels the day after getting over a real illness.  Based on how things have gone (and thankful for my ability to seemingly hibernate away the worst effects of most illnesses), I have a feeling that things should be 90% or better back to normal tomorrow, and 100% by the end of the week.

For those wondering, my body did exactly what it was supposed to do, recognizing a "full on infection" immediately, and dispensing all the troops it could to take care of the intruder(s).  The fact that my body reacted so definitively to a simulated full, active infection after vaccination just solidifies my confidence in these vaccines.  Per real world data, once my immunity fully kicks in, I have an approximately 2% chance of being able to get the virus and 0% chance of it getting bad enough that I would need to be hospitalized; they've also discovered that the fully vaccinated can't be non-infected carriers, so there's even more comfort in knowing I've done my part to keep my loved ones, as well as myself, safe.

I encourage everybody who's still on the fence about getting vaccinated to go ahead and do so, if you're able to in your area.  I was fortunate, as our state decided to open up vaccines to everybody 16 or older a few weeks ago, so instead of trying to go to vaccination sites hoping for a leftover dose, I was able to schedule mine quickly and easily.  I'll still be masking up and constantly sanitizing my hands while I'm out and about, but now I know I have the ability to go and safely visit with friends and family who I've been apart from all this time, without having to worry about whether I'd be bringing illness or death with me by doing so.

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India is hiding its Covid crisis – and the whole world will suffer for it

https://www.yahoo.com/news/india-hiding-covid-crisis-whole-101705742.html

Other experts point to total excess deaths in cities such as Mumbai as proof that there could be 60% to 70% more deaths from Covid-19 than the government is admitting to...Indian journalists tell me they are often asked to self-censor their reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as what they say on social media, for fear of inciting the ire of the government.

😕

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On 5/5/2021 at 1:28 PM, SailorScoutMandy said:

We get our second doses this weekend. I took Monday off as a precaution cause first one kicked my butt so I'm sure this one will be lil worse according to what I've heard. Thanks for sharing your experience. 

Hydrate real good before going in and continue to hydrate after wards. I was peeing hourly and just continued to mix Pedialyte or Gatorade with water for 24 hours after my shot. Apparently it helps the lymph system deal with what's happening as @darkchylde28mentioned he was acutely aware of his.

I also had some homade chicken soup for lunch and dinner that day lol which I to believe helped. I was less than 48 hours after my 2nd shot and went for a jog and did a workout afterwards. 

Best of luck to you guys!

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Screenshot-from-2021-05-08-01-54-12.png

Current models show that the true death toll is FAR above the official numbers. It's projected that by Sept 1, nearly 1 millions Americans will have died from covid. The world-wide death toll currently is predicted to be 9.5 million by then.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

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On 5/8/2021 at 3:29 PM, avatar! said:

Screenshot-from-2021-05-08-01-54-12.png

Current models show that the true death toll is FAR above the official numbers. It's projected that by Sept 1, nearly 1 millions Americans will have died from covid. The world-wide death toll currently is predicted to be 9.5 million by then.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

Just on the death toll, it should not be used as absolute numbers. A lot of the deaths, if tested for Covid19, are presumed due to Covid19. I wonder though what percentage of it is of a typical viral illness episode that was concurrent with someone with already in organ failure, and the Covid19 was the tipping point from severe morbidity to imminent mortality?

The issue then becomes kind of murky, because where do you draw the line between “actual cause of death” and “incidental event to an impending death”? (not trying to minimise the serious nature of the pandemic, but merely adding some food for thought.)

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2 hours ago, GPX said:

Just on the death toll, it should not be used as absolute numbers. A lot of the deaths, if tested for Covid19, are presumed due to Covid19. I wonder though what percentage of it is of a typical viral illness episode that was concurrent with someone with already in organ failure, and the Covid19 was the tipping point from severe morbidity to imminent mortality?

The issue then becomes kind of murky, because where do you draw the line between “actual cause of death” and “incidental event to an impending death”? (not trying to minimise the serious nature of the pandemic, but merely adding some food for thought.)

we can talk about cause of death w.o looking at data otherwise we just draw at straws. Here's a nice graph of deaths of deals in 2020 vs the past 5 years

Screenshot_20210508-195323.thumb.jpg.3d4f2e3f47d6812ebeacb8cc41f9aab8.jpg

Something killed a fuck load of people starting in March, which trailed off and the ramped up again over the winter, which this graph excludes bc of it s issue date of November 2020.

So deaths were way up from year to year in 2020, and these are absolute numbers. What killed these people? It sure as hell wasn't the flu or diabetes. Heart disease was as prevalent in 2020 as it was in 2019. Taking into account that there was a spike in deaths like we've never seen on a year to year basis in hard hit countries, we have to start taking into account what pushed those individuals to death.

If someone had comorbidities, and then died once they contracted covid then I'm chalking that up as a COVID death just based on the year to year data. Bc if it was 2019, there would've been a more predicable outcome for their condition. The difference between 19 & 20 is covid. 

I wish i would've saved all the graphs but once you look at the data and narrow down what the influencing factors were, it's hard not to come back with the conclusion that covid deaths may actually be under counted considering there wasn't even wide spread testing util late 2020 in most states.

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1 hour ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

we can talk about cause of death w.o looking at data otherwise we just draw at straws. Here's a nice graph of deaths of deals in 2020 vs the past 5 years

Screenshot_20210508-195323.thumb.jpg.3d4f2e3f47d6812ebeacb8cc41f9aab8.jpg

Something killed a fuck load of people starting in March, which trailed off and the ramped up again over the winter, which this graph excludes bc of it s issue date of November 2020.

So deaths were way up from year to year in 2020, and these are absolute numbers. What killed these people? It sure as hell wasn't the flu or diabetes. Heart disease was as prevalent in 2020 as it was in 2019. Taking into account that there was a spike in deaths like we've never seen on a year to year basis in hard hit countries, we have to start taking into account what pushed those individuals to death.

If someone had comorbidities, and then died once they contracted covid then I'm chalking that up as a COVID death just based on the year to year data. Bc if it was 2019, there would've been a more predicable outcome for their condition. The difference between 19 & 20 is covid. 

I wish i would've saved all the graphs but once you look at the data and narrow down what the influencing factors were, it's hard not to come back with the conclusion that covid deaths may actually be under counted considering there wasn't even wide spread testing util late 2020 in most states.

So this just measures deaths as a flat number right. So if poverty increased which led to increased deaths or people not having proper medical care because the hospitals were not functioning normally it would all get rolled up into one year over year number, is that correct?

Edited by Californication
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2 hours ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

we can talk about cause of death w.o looking at data otherwise we just draw at straws. Here's a nice graph of deaths of deals in 2020 vs the past 5 years

Screenshot_20210508-195323.thumb.jpg.3d4f2e3f47d6812ebeacb8cc41f9aab8.jpg

Something killed a fuck load of people starting in March, which trailed off and the ramped up again over the winter, which this graph excludes bc of it s issue date of November 2020.

So deaths were way up from year to year in 2020, and these are absolute numbers. What killed these people? It sure as hell wasn't the flu or diabetes. Heart disease was as prevalent in 2020 as it was in 2019. Taking into account that there was a spike in deaths like we've never seen on a year to year basis in hard hit countries, we have to start taking into account what pushed those individuals to death.

If someone had comorbidities, and then died once they contracted covid then I'm chalking that up as a COVID death just based on the year to year data. Bc if it was 2019, there would've been a more predicable outcome for their condition. The difference between 19 & 20 is covid. 

I wish i would've saved all the graphs but once you look at the data and narrow down what the influencing factors were, it's hard not to come back with the conclusion that covid deaths may actually be under counted considering there wasn't even wide spread testing util late 2020 in most states.

What’s with the circular graphs? 

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9 hours ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

we can talk about cause of death w.o looking at data otherwise we just draw at straws. Here's a nice graph of deaths of deals in 2020 vs the past 5 years

Screenshot_20210508-195323.thumb.jpg.3d4f2e3f47d6812ebeacb8cc41f9aab8.jpg

Something killed a fuck load of people starting in March, which trailed off and the ramped up again over the winter, which this graph excludes bc of it s issue date of November 2020.

So deaths were way up from year to year in 2020, and these are absolute numbers. What killed these people? It sure as hell wasn't the flu or diabetes. Heart disease was as prevalent in 2020 as it was in 2019. Taking into account that there was a spike in deaths like we've never seen on a year to year basis in hard hit countries, we have to start taking into account what pushed those individuals to death.

If someone had comorbidities, and then died once they contracted covid then I'm chalking that up as a COVID death just based on the year to year data. Bc if it was 2019, there would've been a more predicable outcome for their condition. The difference between 19 & 20 is covid. 

I wish i would've saved all the graphs but once you look at the data and narrow down what the influencing factors were, it's hard not to come back with the conclusion that covid deaths may actually be under counted considering there wasn't even wide spread testing util late 2020 in most states.

I think you missed my point. I wasn’t arguing that the pandemic isn’t real. Just the thought mortality rates are blurred with some group of people having significant comorbidities that may be the main cause of death and that the Covid19 maybe incidental to the cause. 

Regarding the issue of a lack of testing until mid-to-late 2020, this would likely underestimate the number of cases or the rate of transmission. However the death numbers/rates linked with Covid19, particularly in the US and Western countries, are more likely to be accurate. Because as far as I know, most of the deaths (or any patient entering a hospital) are also tested for Covid19 to know if there is a link to the virus. 

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1 hour ago, GPX said:

I think you missed my point. I wasn’t arguing that the pandemic isn’t real. Just the thought mortality rates are blurred with some group of people having significant comorbidities that may be the main cause of death and that the Covid19 maybe incidental to the cause. 

Regarding the issue of a lack of testing until mid-to-late 2020, this would likely underestimate the number of cases or the rate of transmission. However the death numbers/rates linked with Covid19, particularly in the US and Western countries, are more likely to be accurate. Because as far as I know, most of the deaths (or any patient entering a hospital) are also tested for Covid19 to know if there is a link to the virus. 

I don't understand the point of trying to sparse out .people that had comorbidities that had covid and died. We know that the hospital reached capacity and in some areas more people died because hospitals were full. The hopitals wouldn't have been full if so many people didn't have covid. 

So whether you want to call it indirect or direct is irrelevant this is a just a fact of life all those people that died wouldn't have if covid was under control. 

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9 hours ago, Californication said:

So this just measures deaths as a flat number right. So if poverty increased which led to increased deaths or people not having proper medical care because the hospitals were not functioning normally it would all get rolled up into one year over year number, is that correct?

Yep this is just deaths.

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19 minutes ago, Californication said:

I don't understand the point of trying to sparse out .people that had comorbidities that had covid and died. We know that the hospital reached capacity and in some areas more people died because hospitals were full. The hopitals wouldn't have been full if so many people didn't have covid. 

So whether you want to call it indirect or direct is irrelevant this is a just a fact of life all those people that died wouldn't have if covid was under control. 

On the surface level, deaths are deaths right? Well, yes and no. What you're talking about in the above is more the issue of inadequate resources relative to the health system demands.

Like I said, the deaths are evidence for all to see, this is a genuine pandemic not to be messed around with. However, by getting to the more nit-picky aspects, it helps to determine more how serious it is and for which demographics.

If hypothetically, ALL the deaths are caused by the virus itself and not from underlying medical issues, then it's something that's actually very scary, and all of us should be wetting our pants just about...now! For the time being though, the general observations are that the deaths are mainly from the underlying conditions, and the virus acts as a tipping point for the deaths. This would likely explain why the younger population aren't affected as much as the elderly or ones with significant health issues.

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42 minutes ago, GPX said:

For the time being though, the general observations are that the deaths are mainly from the underlying conditions, and the virus acts as a tipping point for the deaths. This would likely explain why the younger population aren't affected as much as the elderly or ones with significant health issues.

Wouldn't that be like saying people dont die of heart disease, just a heart attack? Or similar to the argument the tobacco companies used for years about how the smoking didn't actually kill people, it was everything else they were doing, like poor diet and lack of exercise?

My grandma died of cancer and smoked for 70 years but bc it was cancer of her lymph system it wasn't marked as a smoking death. I think that's the opposite of how it should be. If you smoke for 70 years and inhale metric tons of noxious chemicals then the cancer is clearly a result of polluting the body with the chemicals.

I treat covid the same way. If you're walking around with a those comorbidities and then get covid and die, the change was covid. The gotcha in the argument which people are using (no necessarily you) is that you can test how long they would've lived had they not gotten covid.

But we do know most ppl who are covid positive only test so for 2-4 wks. So the chances of someone dropping dead from their comorbidities while testing positive w.o covid being an influence is improbable, not impossible but improbable.

Add that to what we know about covid which is it attacks the body indiscriminately causing hemorrhaging in most tissues with found in, from the brain to the heart and kidneys, hell even penile tissue which may be linked to ED, then you can start to connect the dots.

Added cell damage to the kidneys of a diabetes? COVID killed em. Added tissue damage to a heart that has heart diseases? Covid killed em. Stroke for someone who was covid + and had an elevated risk of stroke, covid strikes again. 

Links:

https://www.verywellhealth.com/covid-19-brain-inflammation-bleeding-effects-5095462

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-kidney-damage-caused-by-covid19%3famp=true

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210513/coronavirus-lingers-in-penis-and-could-cause-impotence

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/08/immune-system-deviations-found-in-severe-covid-19-cases.html

 

Edited by RegularGuyGamer
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10 hours ago, phart010 said:

What’s with the circular graphs? 

The circular shape of the chart represents a year. The inner black circles are the deaths that happen in a year. The closer a circle is to the center the fewer deaths there are. There are five black circles for five years.

If you look at the U.S. the five black circles are pretty similar overlapping in some areas and the circles slowly go outward. This means there is a trend of deaths between the five year period although the circles are expanding/deaths increasing slowly that could be for changes in the size of puplation I'm guessing. 

The red line is 2020. If you look at Jan - Mar the deaths match the pattern of the other five years shown and then breakout of the patter around the beginning of April which matches the pattern of covid/govt. response in the U.S.

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1 minute ago, Californication said:

The circular shape of the chart represents a year. The inner black circles are the deaths that happen in a year. The closer a circle is to the center the fewer deaths there are. There are five black circles for five years.

If you look at the U.S. the five black circles are pretty similar overlapping in some areas and the circles slowly go outward. This means there is a trend of deaths between the five year period although the circles are expanding/deaths increasing slowly that could be for changes in the size of puplation I'm guessing. 

The red line is 2020. If you look at Jan - Mar the deaths match the pattern of the other five years shown and then breakout of the patter around the beginning of April which matches the pattern of covid/govt. response in the U.S.

I know how to read the graphs. Just wondering why this couldn’t have been accomplished with the regular  horizontal/vertical axis plot that were all used to seeing. I think it would be easier to analyze as a normal graph

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10 hours ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

Wouldn't that be like saying people dont die of heart disease, just a heart attack? Or similar to the argument the tobacco companies used for years about how the smoking didn't actually kill people, it was everything else they were doing, like poor diet and lack of exercise?

My grandma died of cancer and smoked for 70 years but bc it was cancer of her lymph system it wasn't marked as a smoking death. I think that's the opposite of how it should be. If you smoke for 70 years and inhale metric tons of noxious chemicals then the cancer is clearly a result of polluting the body with the chemicals.

I treat covid the same way. If you're walking around with a those comorbidities and then get covid and die, the change was covid. The gotcha in the argument which people are using (no necessarily you) is that you can test how long they would've lived had they not gotten covid.

But we do know most ppl who are covid positive only test so for 2-4 wks. So the chances of someone dropping dead from their comorbidities while testing positive w.o covid being an influence is improbable, not impossible but improbable.

Add that to what we know about covid which is it attacks the body indiscriminately causing hemorrhaging in most tissues with found in, from the brain to the heart and kidneys, hell even penile tissue which may be linked to ED, then you can start to connect the dots.

Added cell damage to the kidneys of a diabetes? COVID killed em. Added tissue damage to a heart that has heart diseases? Covid killed em. Stroke for someone who was covid + and had an elevated risk of stroke, covid strikes again. 

Links:

https://www.verywellhealth.com/covid-19-brain-inflammation-bleeding-effects-5095462

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-kidney-damage-caused-by-covid19%3famp=true

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210513/coronavirus-lingers-in-penis-and-could-cause-impotence

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/08/immune-system-deviations-found-in-severe-covid-19-cases.html

 

Regarding your web links, they are mostly referring to studies on the seriously affected cases, not necessarily for the majority of the cases. We currently know that the majority of people can be asymptomatic to “flu-like”, and they normally can fully recover, despite the recovery time being more likely longer than the usual flu.

Regarding your example of smoking in smokers, if a smoker dies from respiratory failure, you can’t just assume the death is due to smoking. It maybe an unrelated underlying condition (eg. asbestosis, tuberculosis etc.). In a similar vein, alcoholics that die may have been caused from viral Hepatitis, paracetamol overdose etc.). Again, this isn’t to undermine the seriousness of this pandemic (or the seriousness of smoking/alcohol abuse), but to encourage more better understanding of the deaths in real terms. It’s a bit more complex than meets the eye.

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Cases are on the rise in Taiwan, we're unfortunately on the brink of a lockdown. Basically the perfect storm was created by greed and selfishness, and I just pray that things get straightened out quickly and directly, lest I end up in a dire situation with no way out.

The uptick in cases were caused by two groups of people. One was a hotel that started offering cheap tourist packages to locals, yet they were also using the same hotel as a f'cking quarantine hotel for cargo pilots returning from trips abroad. Yeah, that was pure brilliance and ultimately the virus leaked out.

Then there was also the situation of a rich grandpa that was the former president of the lions club in Taipei. He felt that he was entitled as a rich man, to be a socialite during a f'cking pandemic. Caught the disease from one of his maskless adventures, couldn't keep his shriveled sack and pecker in his pants and spread the disease to a prostitute, the rest is history.

To top things off, the situation with vaccines over here is really screwed up. Imo the media abroad and more importantly, in Taiwan, the risks of the AstraZenica vaccine were blown out if proportion. As a result, we ended up in a situation as follows:

Because up until now, the threat of virus was minimal, the local people did not want to get vaccinated full stop, and even less enthused when it came to light that the available jabs were the AZ vaccine.

Despite this, Taiwan rolled out their (subsidized) vaccination program based on priority groups. There was such little demand that they even opened it up to non-priority groups who were willing to pay for a shot, as otherwise they thought large quantities of the vaccine would go bad. I ultimately decided to pay to get vaccinated, though I still need to get my second jab, which won't be for probably three months.

Now, because of the spike in cases, all the original priority groups are scrambling to get vaccinated with the AstraZenica vaccine, the same vaccine they shunned earlier and acted snobby about, while holding out for Moderna to come to Taiwan or something else.

The whole thing is just stupidity at its finest, and ultimately less than 200,000 people on the island got vaccinated, with most of those folks not even receiving their second jab yet.

I'm trying to stay optimistic, but unless the government completely locks down the north (where most of the cases are), this could get really, really bad.

 

 

Edited by fcgamer
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