Amermoe

Just a minor correction for record, Wata was founded in Jan. 2018, and didn't start dealing with Heritage until I believe late 2018. https://trademarks.justia.com/877/45/wata-87745034.html

I'm all for this, and completely salute your efforts. Believe me no wants to pay thousands on this hobby (I sure don't). There will inevitably be people who will end up losing a lot of money in this market due to misinformation, and lack of knowledge. Which is why you see so much volatility and price corrections happening on a daily rate. I wish I was able to obtain the games I wanted in the 3 figure mark back in 2016, believe me I tried and I was patient. If you could find any record of a Chrono Trigger in gold grade for SNES for less than $1000 back in that time, I would love to see it (chances are that would be like finding a unicorn in a desert). Another thing you should keep in mind, not every system had X% of their library hit the 4 digits. The biggest were NES and SNES, PS1 I would say only a handful really (10-20 games, if that). Saturn only had the top 5 hit those numbers, Sega CD even less, probably only Keio and Snatcher, Genesis not sure exactly, I know there were a handful but not that many, to be honest Genesis was shunned by sealed collectors for a very long time. But if I take SNES for example, because that is what I am most familiar with, here are just a few titles that consistently hit the 4-figure mark 5 or so years ago in sealed/graded high condition. I won't even count NA or SGH sales, which are plenty, I'll just use public ebay records from GVN or Pricecharting; 3 Ninjas Kick Back ($3,483.00 - 2015-02-07 - ebay) Aero Fighters ($3,900.00 - 2015-02-21 ebay) Castlevania: Dracula X ($1,705.00 - 2015-04-20 - ebay) Chrono Trigger ($2,649.99 - 2012-07-21 - ebay) E.V.O.: Search for Eden ($2,550.00 - 2015-02-21 - ebay) EarthBound ($1,999.99 - 2011-02-12 - ebay) Exertainment Mountain Bike Rally/Speed ($4,250.00 - 2015-02-21 - ebay) Final Fantasy II ($1,725.00 - 2015-05-05 - ebay) Final Fantasy III ($2,499.94 - 2015-04-30 - ebay) Hagane: The Final Conflict ($1,999.99 - 2013-09-26 - ebay) Harvest Moon ($1,600.00 - 2015-02-04 - ebay) Incantation ($1,136.00 - 2015-03-29 - ebay) Legend of Zelda: A Link To the Past ($1,250.00 - 2017-03-19 - ebay) Mega Man 7 $2,025.00 - 2014-03-06 - ebay) Mega Man X (Made in Japan) ($2,899.99 - 2017-02-05 - ebay) Mega Man X2 ($1,362.66 - 2012-02-25 - ebay) Mega Man X3 ($4,999.99 - 2015-02-21 - ebay) Metal Warriors ($2,499.95 - 2012-01-18 - ebay) Ninja Gaiden Trilogy ($1,999.99 - 2016-03-05 - ebay) Ninja Warriors ($1,236.11 - 2016-10-24 - ebay) Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen ($2,200.00 - 2017-09-03 - ebay) Pocky & Rocky ($1,691.66 - 2015-12-28 - ebay) Pocky & Rocky 2 ($1,125.00 - 2015-11-16 - ebay) Secret of Mana ($3,999.95 - 2012-05-28 - ebay) Super Copa ($4,049.00 - 2012-06-16 - ebay) Super Turrican 2 ($1,425.43 - 2016-08-06 - ebay) Wild Guns ($1,040.00 - 2014-08-20 - ebay)

Graded game collecting was not always a four figure hobby. No one is saying this, however it certainly became that more and more a few years after VGA started grading games and the very high condition (desirable) games started to dry up. This is not an opinion, it is a fact. You need to have been around and participated at that time to see it, ask Rarebucky, Bronty, JoneBone or any of the long time sealed collectors from NintendoAge or SealedGameHeaven, you'll find your answers there. I think the point you're missing is that you note many NES games that have for the longest time been very low demand that just now have been inflated, and use that as your reference point. I am referring to "High Demand" games, rare games, or extremely significant games (Basically the top 10% of the library). Those games were available 10 years ago, in good condition, and sealed collectors fought tooth and nail to obtain them, often outbidding and backdooring each other - and in some cases forming alliances or gentleman rules (Because the supply of good condition copies was very low). At that time anyone was able to get a copy if that was all they were after. The wars were fought for the best possible copy available attainable - that is where you saw the 4-figure premium. Let me ask you, have ever seen a VGA95 Musha, or VGA90+ Hagane, or a VGA90 Panzer Dragoon Saga, or Bronty's (now infamous) VGA85+ sticker seal Mario Bros, or a VGA85+ NTSC Stadium Events, or a VGA90 Longbox RE1, or a VGA85+ Magical Chase, I could go on and on, how much do you think those caliber of items were going for 10 years ago, which are now going in the six or seven figures? Hell, Bucky wanted $20K for his VGA85+ Little Samson back in 2015, and of course no one took the bait. The top 10% (high condition, rare or in-demand) of items were well into the 4 figures, everything else was in the 3 figures. Many of these sales will not be found on PriceCharting as it does not record all the data or accurate data (even though many were through ebay). Many more sales were private, or through forums. I personally bought many of my SNES sealed collection around the 2015 mark, and I thought I was insane as it was way too late (and had regrets of overpaying) at that time because almost all were already in the 4 figure mark and almost all were in average condition (i.e. high silver or low gold). My peers had paid similar prices but all had gold copies while I was stuck with mostly silver. Many of these same SNES games today however, on the open market would now be valued in the 5 figure mark. For example, I paid $1200 for Chrono Trigger, and now it's valued at $20K+, paid $2000 for FFIII, and now its $15K+, all around the 2015-2016 mark, paid $1000 for a raw FFVII (in great condition), and now its 5x that. I was offered a VGA90+ FFVII in 2017 for $5k, which I decided to pass (too much at the time - would've paid $3k) even though it now would've been a $15k+ item. The population on a 90+ is incredibly low, much more than people realize, and those who have them will never let them go, especially for Y-Fold true first party prints. It's much harder to explain everything that happened behind the scenes to get to where we are at today. You had to have been there and participated. There's a lot of shit going that people don't realize, and that old knowledge is being used to manipulate the current market to suit many people's various interests. For the record, I do not like this current market climate. I am an old collector and I feel completely alien in the current environment, regardless of the fact that my collection is now worth money. I seldom participate in it and when I do, it's on a very surface level. I think natural progression should still have stayed in the 3-4 figure range and gradually climbed organically in the 5 figures, with very few exceptions. Most of the 5 and 6 and beyond figure sales are completely inflated by speculators and gamblers (not investors), and once the well runs dry the market will return back to the collectors.

This is exactly what happened with VGA collectors back way before WATA/Hertiage. Any item graded less than an 80 (with some very very few exceptions to extreme rarities) was considered trash, undesirable and unsellable and is precisely why none of them came to market at that time. The old adage was if it was not at least Gold or Silver, don't sub it in or break the case and sell it raw. All graded collectors wanted Gold, but high Silver (85) was seen as a good enough consolation prize for most. For some, even Gold (85+) was not good enough (it was a dime a dozen, as someone once said to me), they had to have 90 or above only. I have personally witnessed Bronze graded items sit for years on ebay until it was taken down, or put up for auction only to end at a lower price than a CIB game (insanity). No one wanted to touch it with a 10 foot pole. It was affordable enough for non-sealed collectors but they didn't want it because they abhorred the idea of entombing it in a slab, and for sealed/graded collectors, it was pitied/mocked and looked at as a failed attempt at grading. There was zero market for those items, on either side of the collecting sphere, and if you were caught holding one of them, it was like a death sentence if you ever wanted to move it. I'm not saying or agreeing with any of this, but I'm just stating that this was the reality of sealed collecting back in that time. And I do agree that this type of thinking does not allow the hobby to grow, which is why it stayed (and almost died) within a very small group of people for a very long time.

I think terms like "few" are relative. GPX is right, a good amount of the rare or very high condition and/or high demand games were well into the 4 figures I would say for the past 10 years well before WATA (less in 2011, but many started to creep up 2015-beyond). In some instances, there were games that also did break the 5 figure mark organically but were generally the cream of the crop items, we're talking about NWC Grey or Gold/Stadium events, Air Raid/ Sealed circle seal/Hangtab/ No Rev A NES games, etc. Mostly extreme rarities, but to my knowledge still never broke the $20-30K barrier. That was a collector market driving those prices, and there was a universal agreement among sealed/ hardcore collectors at that time that those prices were justified due to their shear rarity and/or significance. Specifically the sealed and graded (VGA) market had many such sales in the 4 figures. Granted the amount of collectors who participated in the that hobby was low, but 4 figure games were common at that stage. For example even if you talk about newer PS1 era games, a high grade FFVII would've cost you $1-2K 5-8 years ago (sometimes more depending on condition and variant), a longbox RE1 or Twisted Metal several times more if you could even find them. Many sealed SNES titles broke the 4 figure mark, games like Super Mario World/FFII/FFIII/Metal Warriors/Secret of Mana/Chrono Trigger/Pocky & Rocky 1 & 2/ Ninja Warriors/ Hagane/Exertainment Speed bike combo/Aero Fighters/Earthbound and many more were all between $1-8k. Same is true for some Sega Master System/Genesis/CD/Saturn games (albeit on lower end - typically $1-2K range). The point I'm making is that we had already reached the 4 figure mark (when it comes to sealed collecting) 10 years ago, it's the 5 figure mark (and beyond) that's completely inflated.

Jone is 100% right about this and he's been in this for a long time. Just 4 years ago, I must have saw hundreds of red label Mario 64s being offered on Ebay in various conditions, some graded, many raw. Many more were shown off on collector threads, and sealed forums in personal collections. Some collectors had multiples because they were trying to chase the high grade. The very high end copies dried up around 2010-2012, that I agree, but there are many sealed copies still out there. The PC copies, I can't even count how many I saw, they popped up every other week because no one wanted them and they were considered far inferior to the originals.

You're right Jone, but the point of this is for the majority of people that may not be as knowledgeable to make informed decisions. I'm very certain that the current market trends we're seeing and price movements will adjust (and in some cases correct) after a census comes out. And indirectly it will have an effect even on the long time collectors, because the money and valuation will be spread out among different items. Those sitting on rare items might see their items increase in value, and the common items will be seen as such and likely decrease in value (assuming demand is not there). People who've been in this for 5-10 years or more don't need a guide to tell them what's popular, or what's rare, or how many of x item exists, which is why they're able to navigate through this unpredictable market. At the very least it will offer some stability, so that there's actual agreement as to which items should command x amount of dollars.

Congrats on that, you should grade it. Chibi Robo and RE Gaiden are good games to grade too.

You got some pretty nice stuff, but you I would caution you about grading if you haven't done so before. As general rule of thumb and assuming you're looking to sell, you should only grade what you think will receive a high score. Sometimes, receiving a low score can hurt your chances at getting market value or even selling your item at all. Best advice I can give you is to take it slow, and grade a few items to test how it works first. Also keep in mind, grading is very expensive and expect to pay at least $100 per game. Backlog is also very high right now, and expect to wait at least 3-6 months to receive anything back from Wata or VGA. Now, in terms of financial value, at the moment I would say you GBA and gamecube titles are hot, the Zelda 4 swords is a good title but it does look to be pretty worn which will hurt its value. Metroid Prime is another good one especially if it's made in Japan first print (look for 000000 on the back, any 1s or other numbers and it's 2nd or third print). Chibi Robo has been climbing but has fallen recently. MGS3 and Dragon Warrior VII are decent titles that have a lot of demand, and should fetch a fair amount. Xbox titles are not too hot, best of the bunch you have is PD Orta and Lost Odyssey, but you should hold on to those until they're more appreciated. Don't know much about the NES title, someone else can help you with that.

That's the one.

Post away, but you should do it in the proper thread. There's a few on "Show off" sealed/graded games threads in the forums. There should be plenty of people here that'd be willing to help you out and give you an honest opinion.

Lufia II was a "Made in Mexico", not even a first print "Made in Japan" something that I don't think many people realized or cared to talk about. I think it overperformed even at 9.8 A++. The Lufia franchise is not that popular and mainly appeals to fans of the games, it's also not that rare sealed. The Japan print mint sealed is much more rare. so seeing it go for what it went for just tells me those entering at those price points have no clue what they're doing.

I knew a bit about Go-Collect buying then killing Nintendo-Age, and buying Dain's "Carolina Collection", but honestly didn't know the connection to Heritage. It's more messed up than I thought if all this is public knowledge, not sure how anyone can then deny how manipulated this market really is. Interesting to know, thank you...

I debated whether I should talk about this, but I recently listened to a video with a comic book dealer that mentioned something that shocked me for a minute, then didn't really surprise me - assuming it's true. He basically candidly said that he had a friend that worked for Heritage who told him that WATA is partly owned by Heritage...apparently it was a partnership. Also said some some explosive things like Heritage buying tons of games to grade at WATA's inception, and putting them on auction to kickstart the company. Not certain if any of this is true, but make of it what you will: Listen in at 2:31

Sometimes you have to ask the right questions to get the answers you're looking for. Are they in the business of just making profit, or are they trying to alter/force a specific outcome, and if the latter why? But you're right, the market will eventually come around, it's just going to take a while with all of the Heritage frenzy. A video game is still a video game regardless if it's encased in X, Y, or Z. If the market sustains itself in the coming future, my hope is that for those that still remain can see that.

I hope no one misunderstands my greater point. I like WATA, and I like VGA. Do they both have flaws? sure, ideally I would want to combine the best of what both have to offer. I just would prefer to see both treated fairly in the open market.

Imagine if Heritage decided one day that they would no longer deal with PSA graded cards, from now on they will only deal with SGC, the hot new emerging card grading company. And suppose they say, well, you have only 2 choices to market your items on our platform, (1) you can convert it to SGC, or (2) you can send it us raw and we'll still market it ungraded. Imagine then how the PSA market would react. Granted, this is not the best example, because the PSA market doesn't need Heritage to set prices, but for a fairly new/emerging market it certainly skews perception one way over the other. Clearly, Heritage and WATA have some kind of exclusive agreement in place, and clearly Heritage has purposefully decided to stifle their competition. Every other major auction house, including eBay, acknowledges and accepts VGA as an established grader in that market, let alone one that held and still holds at least 50% of that market share, even if that share is dwindling. Ups and downs aside, consumer confidence in VGA was established long ago. The market has not chosen WATA over VGA, but rather has accepted WATA as a viable alternative to VGA. Ideally, you would put both products side by side and let the consumer chose which one they prefer. At the very least it's unethical behavior, and is a large reason why there is a large disparity between WATA sales vs VGA sales for the same items. With few exceptions, I have little confidence that Heritage buyers do their research before making purchasing decisions. Every indication points to impulsive buying and spending, price adjustment and re-adjustment, high swings, then low swings, creating complete chaos and volatility in the market. They can't seem to correctly price anything, because none of the past sales for comparable items are being considered, and the availability and population of these items is not clear to them. I do think once this 'trial' period ends, and Heritage/WATA establishes some price history, prices will eventually stabilize. At least for older collectors, they can rely on memory for population counts and condition rarity, and make more informed decisions.

If you want to talk about VGA mistakes, there's plenty of other examples I can point to in the past 10 years. That's hardly the worst offender, there's a long history of VGA failures and mistakes and all the old collectors will remember them. But likewise I can point to plenty of mistakes on the side of WATA as well. None of this detracts from either, or the fact that a lower grade VGA crosses to a much higher score WATA. I don't think there is anyone, including WATA, who will dispute that, because it is inherent to their scoring system. I have WATA games, and I have VGA games. If I am given the opportunity to choose between a VGA 85, or a WATA 9.2/A, I will chose VGA. In the same instance if the choice was between a 9.6/A+, then I would chose WATA. You buy the game not the grade, and frankly most buyers on Heritage can't tell the difference.

But see, there in lies the point. Collectors who genuinely collect prefer VGA over WATA, mainly because of condition. Collectors understand that for comparable copies, VGA is the much better condition and is the higher quality and value. Hertiage buyers don't understand, don't know or don't care about any of that. Ebay has long been the true organic market for these games. There is a long history of sealed games rising in price slow and steady over the years through ebay, which is a sign of a healthy market. What's alarming is not the fact that a mario sold for $660k, it's how fast it got there. When an item shoots in price 20x over a span of 6 months, it's not something you celebrate. It should make you extremely cautious. The deep pocket buyers on Hertiage couldn't care less if there are better deals available on ebay. They only deal with auction houses they trust, and recognize, which in this case is Heritage. The real shame really lies on Heritage for not accepting VGA, imo that is the true manipulation going on at the moment. But if you're serious about selling those 2 games for maximum dollar, then you have to play by their rules - cross it to WATA and consign it to Heritage. Normal people go to ebay, and most go there to get a deal, so don't expect to set a record auction price off average income buyers. Most of them are well informed, and know better.

Not knocking anyone for keeping doubles (or even triples) of some titles, it's normal and it happens in the hobby. What I don't like seeing is someone hoarding 5 or more copies of very rare or valuable items, and doing it consistently, therefore deliberately shorting the supply and raising costs. The instance I'm thinking of is for sealed titles valued in the 4 to 5 figures. But hey, if you have the means, and you want to speculate, then all power to you.

I've been priced out pretty much for the past 2 years for those exact reasons. Then I see people posting 5-6 copies of the 'rare' games I'm looking for and it starts to become very clear what's been happening to the hobby as of late. I've already made peace with the fact that I'm never going to complete my collection, and quite honestly have started to move on to other hobbies.

The card looks to be in pretty good condition, but honestly you're likely looking at a PSA 8, or 9 at best if the surface and edges are in immaculate condition. The centering is what would hold it back, as you can see that it's off center left-right as well as top-down. In order to get a 10, all dimensions on four sides have to be equal. But hey man, I think you have a good shot at a 9, which still holds some value. If I wanted to play the PSA game, I'd send it in. Just be careful of the wait times. It's a gamble, if you wait too long you might miss your chance, but if you want it right away, it'll cost you ~$200 on grading, which if you want to sell may not be worth the effort.

If the card is raw and it in extremely good condition, it will have some value, but not the inflated price being paid right now. You have to remember that anyone looking for raw cards right now are not looking to keep in their collections, they are looking to grade them. So the first thing they will look for is the centering of the card, then the corners, then the surface and edges. The centering is the first priority because the printing quality back in the 1990s was atrocious. If your card is well centered, and has sharp corners, it will be valued. If you have a beat up copy of the card, I doubt you'll be able to even sell it. This goes for the rest of the Marvel cards.

This is pretty much it. Marvel cards are experiencing a PSA10 boom only because of the POP counts are extremely low, because no one cared about them (and arguably no one still cares about them). People are only in it to get the PSA10, flip them, then get out. pretty sad really. The current market is being driven by the sports cards collectors, and they are applying the same mechanics to that market, which doesn't really work because they are a mix b/w comics and cards (two separate hobbies). I have a lot of these cards in complete sets, I love the masterpieces sets especially and their artwork. I used to collect these as a kid, and I bought into them again dirt cheap before the bubble, so still have many sealed boxes of this stuff. I'll tell you this, once the PSA10 POP numbers adjust, and rest assured there is an unprecedented amount being graded at the moment, these prices will tank. The only thing keeping the bubble going is PSA's insane turnaround time.

WITH A 4K FACE! see you next time