Wata to release initial pop report later this month - NES only, no seal ratings

[Gulag Joe | 582]

7 hours ago, OptOut said:

Why do you think that the SEALED niche is going to grow to encompass the majority of game collectors? I'm not saying the market for graded games hasn't grown, or won't continue to grow. But if you are waiting for the tens of millions of ALREADY ACTIVE GAME COLLECTORS to "wake-up" to graded collecting, honestly I think you are making a losing bet.

I don't think sealed collectors will grow into the tens of millions. I think the high end collectors will grow into the thousands over the next two decades. I speculate that many of these collectors will migrate from sports cards and comics in larger numbers after the pop reports release. And when you have a sealed population of 78 total games and thousands of new collectors entering the hobby, that supply is limited, or rather, rare.

[jonebone | 1,307]

30 minutes ago, OptOut said:

This analogy is also imperfect. A reprint of Honus Wagner would not be comparable to an AUTHENTIC cart only SMB, even if each were five bucks. One is the real deal, original product, the other is a counterfeit fake.

All analogies are imperfect when drilled down to the semantics and literal sense.  But the overarching point remains.

If you have nostalgia for something or just like the look of it, there is a very cheap alternative for you to own the item and scratch that itch.  Buying a fake Wagner is no different than someone buying the PAL SE cart for pennies on the dollar to "complete" a set.  It's just a collector using a cheap stop gap to scratch the itch.

And then if you really want to play in the big leagues and own a legitimate collectible that is a store of value (whether thousands or millions), then there are authenticated and graded copies that allow you to do so.  

For the record in terms of SMB3 value, if I were a collector looking to own it, $5k as a floor for a 9.4 A+ right bros is an excellent spot with no downside.  Exact price is probably closer to $7500-$10k right now but I see that floor as no downside, $400 is a CIB price or a beat to crap copy.  I don't believe in the left bros price at this level and I would avoid the challenge set version / exporter seal versions as well.  The right bros in 9.4 A+ and up is the sweet spot where demand will always outweigh supply and price is affordable enough for a lot of fish to play in that pond.

[OptOut | 8,881]

3 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

I don't think sealed collectors will grow into the tens of millions. I think the high end collectors will grow into the thousands over the next two decades. I speculate that many of these collectors will migrate from sports cards and comics in larger numbers after the pop reports release. And when you have a sealed population of 78 total games and thousands of new collectors entering the hobby, that supply is limited, or rather, rare.

Hmm. Well, I guess we shall have to wait see then!

 

Personally, I predict we will see a general slump in enthusiasm for graded collecting in conjunction with the market correction we appear to be witnessing right now, certainly compared to the craziness of the last two years or so. During this time, the people in it for the quick and easy cash will pick up sticks and trail off, and we will be left with a more rational and dedicated group of collectors who really ARE into the hobby for more than just a quick buck. After that, growth of prices and overall numbers of collectors will be continual, but FAR more modest than we have seen recently.

I mean, I COULD be wrong, but to imagine another market catalyst as big as the corona lockdown and stimulus, combined with the general hype of sealed collecting as the big new thing among a new group of collectors, to boost the scene to even GREATER heights any time soon? I can't see it happening tbh, at least that's my take.

[inasuma | 1,203]

1 hour ago, OptOut said:

 

... but is that growth sustainable, and are the people participating in that growth the sorts of people likely to maintain their interest over the longer term, like we have around here for 10, 20, 30 years?

 

[Seth | 161]

1 hour ago, OptOut said:

Hmm. Well, I guess we shall have to wait see then!

OptOut, I just want to say that I hear what you're saying, that everything you've said is self-evidently correct and accurate, and that a few folks here are being obtuse for whatever reason. Especially egregious is comparing a genuine-article SMB3 CIB to a Honus Wagner *repro*. That's an insult to the intelligence of folks here, especially when *repros exist in gaming* so the analogy is obviously a farce. The level of interest in a Honus Wagner repro matches the level of interest in an SMB3 repro—approximately zero—and anyone who has ever collected sports cards knows this.

Collecting sealed and graded games is niche. It will always be niche. Yes, the number of such collectors will grow—but so too will the population of sealed and graded games. In fact, the latter will grow much faster than the former, which is why prices will come down (a market *correction*, not a collapse).

When I raised the prospect of $400 SMB3s a decade from now I was speaking in the way OptOut is speaking: of the median price of all graded SMB3s, across (as I said) all conditions (in terms of box and seal, so yes, that includes both sealed games and no-seal CIBs). I never said that the *highest* end of the SMB3 population would be $400; that's absurd and putting words in my mouth. Jonas is saying that a NM sealed-and-graded SMB3 will always be worth four figures, and *I agree with him*. He might say $7,500 to $10,000 will be the common future sale price for such items, and I might say $3,500, but we are not so far off from one another here.

But if NM sealed-and-graded SMB3s are going for $3,500 *or* the average of Jonas's ten-year projection ($8,750) ten years from now, given that SMB3 is considered one of the greatest games of all time and therefore perhaps the game that (all things being equal) the sealed and graded video game collector would most want, a mid-/high four-figure market for such a game means a *massive* correction from what we are seeing now, considering that a couple dozen NM and NM+ NES titles are now trending toward or over $50,000 in that condition.

The fact is, there will *never* be equivalency of any kind between the niche sealed-and-graded market and sports card collecting until high-end resellers like Jonas do something to nurture and encourage a three-figure sealed-and-graded market. Instead, too many people in this hobby—Goldin Auctions being a great example, which is why I went after that guy here—are trying to *systematically* destroy that market. If they keep on this way their complaints in 2025 that there are no buyers left anymore will fall on deaf ears.

I'm saying that people in this hobby better start thinking more about *buyers*—and I don't mean multimillionaires, I mean regular folks—rather than seeing everything through the lens of investors, speculators, and high-end sellers. That's a recipe for *foreclosing* the bright future for the hobby that Jonas sees.

And BTW there is *nothing* radical about this view—if anything, it's such ploddingly logical common sense as to be wholly banal.

Edited November 18, 2021 by RETRO

[inasuma | 1,203]

can we get back to the topic?

namely, what we should expect from such a bare bones, non-feature complete pop report.

it's still unclear if we'll see "sealed" game pops without seal ratings, or if all ratings will be purely CIB.

[ApebitMusic | 129]

"Later this month" 

[Gulag Joe | 582]

1 hour ago, inasuma said:

can we get back to the topic?

namely, what we should expect from such a bare bones, non-feature complete pop report.

it's still unclear if we'll see "sealed" game pops without seal ratings, or if all ratings will be purely CIB.

I think the slow pop rollout is so Wata can see what type of impact it might play on the market. I think they expect it to generate a big reaction that would result in even more submissions than they are already receiving. If I presume correctly, we'd then seen a slow and staggered pop release for each subsequent console.

[DefaultGen | 5,399]

2 hours ago, inasuma said:

can we get back to the topic?

namely, what we should expect from such a bare bones, non-feature complete pop report.

it's still unclear if we'll see "sealed" game pops without seal ratings, or if all ratings will be purely CIB.

The unclear format and date is part of the fun! I can't wait to refresh Ebay sold NES listings once it drops. I don't think it matters if it's CIB, sealed, or what info is included. People are gonna hunt some 0s and low numbers next to game titles no matter what, even if the only reason is because they think other people will be hunting them. We know there are going to be graded Little Samsons, Stadium Events, and Cheetahmen. If there are zero graded Mermaids of Atlantis or whatever obscure game and 1 CIB copy on Ebay at its regular price though, I bet that shit is gooone. I could be wrong though. I'm personally hoping to witness an Ebay apocalypse. There hasn't been big Wata drama to spectate in weeks! If it drops and people just change their buy or sell stonks opinion on like sealed Mario 3s that would be so boring.

[RH | 4,895]

Friendly request that if/when this posts, please start a new topic. I can't follow this drama and Wata has yet to email me a newsletter (no it's not in SPAM, either) even though I've signed up for it.

I'd like to see these pop reports when they are released.

[tidaldreams | 654]

24 minutes ago, DefaultGen said:

The unclear format and date is part of the fun! I can't wait to refresh Ebay sold NES listings once it drops. I don't think it matters if it's CIB, sealed, or what info is included. People are gonna hunt some 0s and low numbers next to game titles no matter what, even if the only reason is because they think other people will be hunting them. We know there are going to be graded Little Samsons, Stadium Events, and Cheetahmen. If there are zero graded Mermaids of Atlantis or whatever obscure game and 1 CIB copy on Ebay at its regular price though, I bet that shit is gooone. I could be wrong though. I'm personally hoping to witness an Ebay apocalypse. There hasn't been big Wata drama to spectate in weeks! If it drops and people just change their buy or sell stonks opinion on like sealed Mario 3s that would be so boring.

So like this essentially

Also whats a cheetahman? is it this guy?

[DefaultGen | 5,399]

2 minutes ago, tidaldreams said:

So like this essentially

This is my favorite explanation

 

[inasuma | 1,203]

40 minutes ago, DefaultGen said:

 I'm personally hoping to witness an Ebay apocalypse. There hasn't been big Wata drama to spectate in weeks! 

i know for an almost fact the games i have are very "low" pop. however they're also probably not all that much in demand. I NEED POP REPORTS AND MARKET REACTIONS TO TELL ME HOW TO FEEL

[GPX | 1,369]

19 hours ago, inasuma said:

this is just a concept btw and it probably would suck to use IRL but i just wanted to show how wata could create a cascading filter search to refine parameters on game name alone. this way you could optionally add a box variant, then the other filters get narrower and narrower in scope depending on confirmed variant combinations.

cib:

sealed:

ok so my rate is $130/hr and i expect compensation for the 15 mins this took me.

(hi deniz)

Is this your attempt at trying to land a WATA job?

How I see it, it’s a matter of waiting and see what’s WATA going to showcase. This shouldn’t be about us doing WATA’s job for them! Lol

Honestly, I don’t believe for one bit that the delay is due to programming difficulties. More likely an issue of what drives profits the most (for them). It will come a time when any further delay in releasing pop reports, WATA is likely to lose interest of consumers rather than gain interest. The time is probably about now, thus their announcement.

[ApebitMusic | 129]

I know I'm gonna stock up on those low pop Othellos and Anticipations! 

[Seth | 161]

2 hours ago, ApebitMusic said:

I know I'm gonna stock up on those low pop Othellos and Anticipations! 

FWIW:

Othello (sealed and graded) Rarity Ranking: #47 Most Common of 810 ranked NES titles

Anticipation (sealed and graded) Rarity Ranking: #187 Most Common of 810 ranked NES titles

S.

[RH | 4,895]

I actually wouldn't mind having a nice, sealed Anticipation! We had that in our home and since it was about one of five titles, we wore it out.

[inasuma | 1,203]

5 hours ago, GPX said:

Is this your attempt at trying to land a WATA job?

How I see it, it’s a matter of waiting and see what’s WATA going to showcase. This shouldn’t be about us doing WATA’s job for them! Lol

Honestly, I don’t believe for one bit that the delay is due to programming difficulties. More likely an issue of what drives profits the most (for them). It will come a time when any further delay in releasing pop reports, WATA is likely to lose interest of consumers rather than gain interest. The time is probably about now, thus their announcement.

don't worry i sent a paypal invoice straight to deniz. we gucci.

[AnimalHouse | 117]

8 hours ago, inasuma said:

don't worry i sent a paypal invoice straight to deniz. we gucci.

-Before or after he sold his company?

-Did he respond to you?

Edit: Thanks OptOut!

Edited November 19, 2021 by AnimalHouse

[OptOut | 8,881]

22 minutes ago, AnimalHouse said:

-Before or after he sold his company?

-Did he respond to you?

Animal House RN:

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

22 hours ago, inasuma said:

can we get back to the topic?

namely, what we should expect from such a bare bones, non-feature complete pop report.

it's still unclear if we'll see "sealed" game pops without seal ratings, or if all ratings will be purely CIB.

I heard from a good source it will be sealed mostly to start, with some of the higher end NES CIB grades for stuff like sticker seals or TM Zeldas. It will be clear what is sealed and what is CIB. 

I think this is going to be a lot more info than people are giving credit for, even without the seals. Those will be coming, btw, I believe they are just working on how to best format it for viewing.

Edited November 19, 2021 by ExplodedHamster

[inasuma | 1,203]

1 hour ago, ExplodedHamster said:

I heard from a good source it will be sealed mostly to start, with some of the higher end NES CIB grades for stuff like sticker seals or TM Zeldas. It will be clear what is sealed and what is CIB. 

I think this is going to be a lot more info than people are giving credit for, even without the seals. Those will be coming, btw, I believe they are just working on how to best format it for viewing.

oh that's very good info, thanks EH!

[AdamW | 713]

BTW, for another theory on why this takes a while, it could be as simple as sorting out prints. Going by the data we got a while back, these were not sorted out very well at all - there are often five or more different entries for the same print. It's possible that there's a mapping somewhere else in WATA's internal db which wasn't exposed by the previous API results where they mapped those items better, but if not, it would take a while to do that work even just for the most "significant" games.

To give just a small example of what I'm talking about, there's only one "white bullets" print of Punch-Out, but WATA has variously described it as "*No Rev-A, Round SOQ, White Bullets", "*No Rev-A, Round SOQ, White Bullets (No Code)" and "*No Rev-A, Round SOQ, Small Warranty, 5-Digit ZIP, White Bullets (No Code)" at different times, and each of those shows up as a different 'box variant' in the old API return data. If WATA doesn't already have an internal mapping somewhere that knows that those three are really "the same" print, then just building that out for a few hundred games with multiple prints is a lot of grunt work for someone to do.

[tidaldreams | 654]

2 hours ago, AdamW said:

BTW, for another theory on why this takes a while, it could be as simple as sorting out prints. Going by the data we got a while back, these were not sorted out very well at all - there are often five or more different entries for the same print. It's possible that there's a mapping somewhere else in WATA's internal db which wasn't exposed by the previous API results where they mapped those items better, but if not, it would take a while to do that work even just for the most "significant" games.

To give just a small example of what I'm talking about, there's only one "white bullets" print of Punch-Out, but WATA has variously described it as "*No Rev-A, Round SOQ, White Bullets", "*No Rev-A, Round SOQ, White Bullets (No Code)" and "*No Rev-A, Round SOQ, Small Warranty, 5-Digit ZIP, White Bullets (No Code)" at different times, and each of those shows up as a different 'box variant' in the old API return data. If WATA doesn't already have an internal mapping somewhere that knows that those three are really "the same" print, then just building that out for a few hundred games with multiple prints is a lot of grunt work for someone to do.

Yeah, due to their record-keeping (or lack thereof), this will be a clusterf*ck to implement. Which is why it has taken them so long and will continue to take a long time for other systems.

[Seth | 161]

2 hours ago, tidaldreams said:

Which is why it has taken them so long and will continue to take a long time for other systems.

I admit to being confused by this statement. In May 2018, then-WATA CEO and President Deniz Kahn told the media that WATA was ready to release pop reports for all games, on all systems, across all grades and conditions, and across all game types (sealed and CIB), and now, three and a half years later, you're saying that the reason the head of the company's estimate was off by three and a half years is because the head of the company was unaware how big a task what he publicly promised would be? And you're implying that WATA has been working on this project for three and a half years ("[this] is why it has taken them so long") when we have absolutely no evidence that that is true, and even none of the WATA fanboys with a backchannel to Deniz (and no compunctions about shilling for WATA) say it's true?

What?

Why don't we stick to the facts. WATA just went through the worst PR scandal of its existence, and was bought out by a new parent company. That new parent company—both as a way of building good faith with customers (who are waiting 5x to 10x longer for their products than they paid for) and as a way of reversing course from the now-demoted Kahn's policy of doing absolutely nothing to release pop reports (and unethically manipulating the sealed-and-graded games market on TV)—decided to start its pop-report project for the first time.

Because it's a big project, the company is starting with one subset of data from one console. It likely didn't announce its intentions until it had gotten most of the way through this effort, which would have begun shortly after WATA was bought out in July. So while we may be able to say that it has taken them months to get their data into shape—and the poor shape of the data is of course the company's fault, and negligence, and may be part of the reason Kahn was demoted—we cannot say that they have been working on this all along, that any issues they're facing now weren't foreseeable three and a half years ago, or that WATA is to be given any credit for doing the absolute rock-bottom least it can possibly do to get itself out of the business ethics and consumer-confidence hole it willfully created for itself and is in right now.

Edited November 20, 2021 by RETRO