Wata to release initial pop report later this month - NES only, no seal ratings

[ApebitMusic | 130]

Why are you calling me "chief" and why is a post like mine automatically called "propaganda"? Gimme a break. 

Did I mention anything about prices in my post?

I'm well aware that rarity doesn't equate to value. 

I believe your post is long-windedly saying supply and demand will determine value... so thank you for that! 

[jonebone | 1,307]

Why do we have two extremist opinions here?  Both are wrong, answer is in the middle.  For example:

A card from a 120 years ago with 60 known graded copies is infinitely rarer than a video game from the 1980s with 60 known and graded copies.  One has much higher probabilities of copies coming to market.  One is much more mature where literally all of the valuable and authentic copies are already graded whereas one is still sold raw on a daily basis.  Relative rarity is what matters, and in terms of NES games, 60 confirmed graded copies is a good amount.  Not necessarily enough to go around for the collecting pool but much more than truly scarce stuff like hangtabs that may have 10 copies confirmed period and likely will never go much above 20 except for "common" hangtabs (Section Z).

Then on the other hand, touting 78 copies of Mario 3 as some damning number is quite laughable.  I'd peg the confirmed sealed number in the 500-1000 range (graded less than that) and that is still not enough to go around as it's a must own NES title that everyone played.  It's actually a great title to keep up with NES pricing as you'll almost always have copies available in varying grades and you could track the price over time well.  The stuff that appears once a year or once every couple of years is impossible to assess accurately because prices change drastically in that long of a drought.

And last but not least, the population report is a "population guide" essentially, just like sold points become price guides.  There's going to be a good plus / minus percentage error around it (which any good data analyst would mention).  Especially as more grading companies come online, the same game can get cracked and regraded with a new company multiple times and show as 4 or 5 copies of a game when it was really one.  Also just counting sold copies without tracing the serial will skew numbers upward as the same game can get sold repeatedly.

My bottom line from someone with many years of experience: The games have less confirmed copies than some other hobbies, but in no way does that imply that prices still shoot to the moon because of it.  Pricing has gotten pretty nutty fairly quickly and we're finally hitting a long overdue cool down.

Edited November 17, 2021 by jonebone

[Seth | 164]

14 minutes ago, ApebitMusic said:

Why are you calling me "chief" and why is a post like mine automatically called "propaganda"? Gimme a break. 

Did I mention anything about prices in my post?

I'm well aware that rarity doesn't equate to value. 

I believe your post is long-windedly saying supply and demand will determine value... so thank you for that! 

I apologize, I was just in a jocular way calling you "boss", "guy", "man" (&c). Clearly it didn't come off as intended and that's my fault.

I say "propaganda" because we mustn't create a fallacious logic circle in which whatever the WATA population reports reveal, it's good news for everybody. Good news, for a market where sealed SMB3s are selling for five figures, would be for all indications to be that there will never be more than 100 to 200 sealed SMB3s. That would be in line with what a market can support at five figures. But what the data suggests is that there will be *ten times* that number of SMB3s, which means that calling them "rare" is really just rhetoric—i.e., propaganda that hypes the market when what we really should be saying, if we want to be responsible, is something like, "There will be so many sealed and graded SMB3s in the market over the next decade that $400 is a reasonable price to buy one for now."

Edited November 17, 2021 by RETRO

[ApebitMusic | 130]

2 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Why do we have two extremist opinions here?  Both are wrong, answer is in the middle.  For example:

A card from a 120 years ago with 60 known graded copies is infinitely rarer than a video game from the 1980s with 60 known and graded copies.  One has much higher probabilities of copies coming to market.  One is much more mature where literally all of the valuable and authentic copies are already graded whereas one is still sold raw on a daily basis.  Relative rarity is what matters, and in terms of NES games, 60 confirmed graded copies is a good amount.  Not necessarily enough to go around for the collecting pool but much more than truly scarce stuff like hangtabs that may have 10 copies confirmed period and likely will never go much above 20 except for "common" hangtabs (Section Z).

Then on the other hand, touting 78 copies of Mario 3 as some damning number is quite laughable.  I'd peg the confirmed sealed number in the 500-1000 range (graded less than that) and that is still not enough to go around as it's a must own NES title that everyone played.  It's actually a great title to keep up with NES pricing as you'll almost always have copies available in varying grades and you could track the price over time well.  The stuff that appears once a year or once every couple of years is impossible to assess accurately because prices change drastically in that long of a drought.

And last but not least, the population report is a "population guide" essentially, just like sold points become price guides.  There's going to be a good plus / minus percentage error around it (which any good data analyst would mention).  Especially as more grading companies come online, the same game can get cracked and regraded with a new company multiple times and show as 4 or 5 copies of a game when it was really one.  Also just counting sold copies without tracing the serial will skew numbers upward as the same game can get sold repeatedly.

My bottom line from someone with many years of experience: The games have less confirmed copies than some other hobbies, but in no way does that imply that prices still shoot to the moon because of it.  Pricing has gotten pretty nutty fairly quickly and we're finally hitting a long overdue cool down.

With all due respect Jonebone, I don't think my post was extremist in any way. The only point I was trying to make is that 78 is not a plentiful number, even for the least desirable game in the NES library.. which is... somebody tell me.

[ApebitMusic | 130]

No worries Retro, I just think we will have to wait and see.

My just very general theory is that there are not enough of these sealed games to meet the demand of the hobby. 

That's just my honest opinion, and if you or anyone calls that propaganda, that's just not fair. I could be wrong! We'll see!

[Seth | 164]

9 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Why do we have two extremist opinions here?  Both are wrong, answer is in the middle.  For example:

A card from a 120 years ago with 60 known graded copies is infinitely rarer than a video game from the 1980s with 60 known and graded copies.  One has much higher probabilities of copies coming to market.  One is much more mature where literally all of the valuable and authentic copies are already graded where as one is still sold raw on a daily basis.  Relative rarity is what matters, and in terms of NES games, 60 confirmed graded copies is a good amount.  Not necessarily enough to go around for the collecting pool but much more than truly scarce stuff like hangtabs that may have 10 copies confirmed period and likely will never go much above 20 except for "common" hangtabs (Section X).

Then on the other hand, touting 78 copies of Mario 3 as some damning number is quite laughable.  I'd peg the confirmed sealed number in the 500-1000 range and that is still not enough to go around as it's a must own NES title that everyone played.  It's actually a great title to keep up with NES pricing as you'll almost always have copies available in varying grades and you could track the price over time well.  The stuff that appears once a year or once every couple of years is impossible to assess accurately because prices change drastically in that long of a drought.

And last but not least, the population report is a "population guide" essentially, just like sold points become price guides.  There's going to be a good plus / minus percentage error around it (which any good data analyst would mention).  Especially as more grading companies come online, the same game can get cracked and regraded with a new company multiple times and show as 4 or 5 copies of a game when it was really one.  Also just counting sold copies without tracing the serial will skew numbers upward as the same game can get sold repeatedly.

My bottom line from someone with many years of experience: The games have less confirmed copies than some other hobbies, but in no way does that imply that prices still shoot to the moon because of it.  Pricing has gotten pretty nutty fairly quickly and we're finally hitting a long overdue cool down.

Okay, but just to be clear, your argument appears to be with Pat, not me. *I* didn't say that "78" is a damning number. I agree that a "damning" number—if I'm forced to use such silly terminology—would be the very very low thousands, which is what I think we're looking at (as I said) over a ten-year window going forward and across all grading houses and grades.

In any case, I have been harping on relative rarity and have been transparent about the difference between "market availability" and "number of copies in existence" for many months now, both here and at RETRO and on FB. It's why I rank games by appearances rather than absolute copies—the latter of which no single analysis *or* population report can ever tell us, because there are too many variables about which grading houses are used and where games go post-grading—and why I speak of SMB3 as "common" only *relative* to other NES games and not in any absolute sense.

In any case, I agree with almost everything you said, Jonas, unless your ultimate point is that the current price points for SMB3 are anything but unsustainable, because they manifestly are.

Edited November 17, 2021 by RETRO

[GPX | 1,369]

13 minutes ago, ApebitMusic said:

No worries Retro, I just think we will have to wait and see.

My just very general theory is that there are not enough of these sealed games to meet the demand of the hobby. 

That's just my honest opinion, and if you or anyone calls that propaganda, that's just not fair. I could be wrong! We'll see!

 

13 minutes ago, RETRO said:

Okay, but just to be clear, your argument appears to be with Pat, not me. *I* didn't say that "78" is a damning number. I agree that a "damning" number—if I'm forced to use such silly terminology—would be the very very low thousands, which is what I think we're looking at (as I said) over a ten-year window going forward and across all grading houses and grades.

In any case, I have been harping on relative rarity and have been transparent about the difference between "market availability" and "number of copies in existence" for many months now, both here and at RETRO and on FB. It's why I rank games by appearances rather than absolute copies—the latter of which no single analysis *or* population report can ever tell us, because there are too many variables about which grading houses are used and where games go post-grading—and why I speak of SMB3 as "common" only *relative* to other NES games and not in any absolute sense.

In any case, I agree with almost everything you said, Jonas, unless your ultimate point is that the current price points for SMB3 are anything but unsustainable, because they manifestly are.

I think you guys are arguing at slightly different angles. One is arguing about the range in population that is regarded “rare”, and the other is talking about what price a game deserves with its “rare” status.

I can try answering to both with:

- a sealed SMB3 can still be rare even if 1000-2000 are found in the future, if sealed/graded collectors continue to gain in numbers (say 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 collectors); in other words, a rarity of the game is dependent on how many collectors are wanting that game at any given time. Currently the total numbers of sealed SMB3 remains unknown and the total number of collectors wanting a sealed SMB3 in 2030 remains unknown. So no one can be sure what is “rare” moving forward, assuming more sealed copies are going to be found.

- Regarding the 6-7 figure games that have been sold, yes, there may be a few millionaires who can spend like “they just don’t care” currently. But how many millionaires will be willing to play this “spend a million dollars on games” game? Remembering that millionaires are mostly rich because of hard work and/or brains, not by gambling luck.

 

[GPX | 1,369]

38 minutes ago, RETRO said:

But what the data suggests is that there will be *ten times* that number of SMB3s, which means that calling them "rare" is really just rhetoric—i.e., propaganda that hypes the market when what we really should be saying, if we want to be responsible, is something like, "There will be so many sealed and graded SMB3s in the market over the next decade that $400 is a reasonable price to buy one for now."

You’re take on the $400 price of a sealed graded SMB3 is a little baffling. If a sealed and graded SMB3 has been going at increasing rates over the years for 4 figures prior to WATA/HA. Now it’s going for 5-6 figures post-WATA/HA, why should it suddenly be worth $400?

Are you confusing a graded CIB for a graded sealed game?

[Gulag Joe | 582]

This thread got real drunk real quick

[tidaldreams | 654]

2 hours ago, Gulag Joe said:

This thread got real drunk real quick

The best kind of threads.

[GPX | 1,369]

Aren’t drunk threads the main reason why we keep coming back? 

[OptOut | 8,883]

6 hours ago, ApebitMusic said:

Sure, 78 is more than 1 or 2, but that doesn't mean 78 can't still be "rare". 

Also food for thought. There are thought to be ~60 T206 Honus Wagners in existence, and that card is considered "rare" by pretty much anybody in the hobby and has been for years.

Whatever, the term "rare" is open to interpretation, but you can't say 78 of anything remotely desirable is a plentiful amount. 

How many times do people need to be reminded that video games AREN'T sports cards!!!

If you want a Honus Wagner, you need to buy a Honus Wagner, and you will be competing for ONLY one of the 60 in existence, the end.

If you want a Mario 3, you can take your PICK from any of the EIGHTEEN MILLION copies that were mass produced as few as 30 years ago that are still CONSTANTLY and eternally in circulation in the secondary market.

If there are only 78 SEALED/GRADED copies, that is one thing, but there are 18 million ways for video game collectors to scratch their Mario 3 itch.

I have seen ZERO evidence that genuine long-term videogame enthusiasts are migrating enmasse to the graded collecting niche. I've seen longtime sealed collectors continue to engage, I've seen old guard retro dudes cashing out their treasures, and I've seen a BUNCH of tourists, vultures and rubes from other hobbies trying their luck to make Graded collecting the next big thing. It's not working.

So, yeah. 78 graded Mario 3's is MORE than enough to satisfy the pumped up demand of a bunch of amateur hustlers selling each other down the river, until they inevitably realise they've been buying air this whole time, and the rest of us are just fuggin LAUGHING at how dumb they've all been! 

 

[inasuma | 1,203]

this is just a concept btw and it probably would suck to use IRL but i just wanted to show how wata could create a cascading filter search to refine parameters on game name alone. this way you could optionally add a box variant, then the other filters get narrower and narrower in scope depending on confirmed variant combinations.

cib:

sealed:

ok so my rate is $130/hr and i expect compensation for the 15 mins this took me.

(hi deniz)

Edited November 18, 2021 by inasuma

[inasuma | 1,203]

 

22 minutes ago, OptOut said:

How many times do people need to be reminded that video games AREN'T sports cards!!!

No one is claiming they are though. A comparison is being drawn on rarity, that's it. Granted, a hangtab mario 1 is probably not in the same league anyway because it was produced later and copies are still coming to market... but I digress.

[OptOut | 8,883]

1 minute ago, inasuma said:

 

No one is claiming they are though. A comparison is being drawn on rarity, that's it. Granted, a hangtab mario 1 is probably not in the same league anyway because it was produced later and copies are still coming to market... but I digress.

The dude is saying there are 60 Honus Wagners and 78 Mario 3's, because SPORTS CARDS.

I'm saying there's 60 Honus Wagners and 18 million Mario 3's because VIDEO GAMES.

 

You get my point, right?

[tidaldreams | 654]

whats a honus wagner

runs

[Gulag Joe | 582]

1 hour ago, OptOut said:

The dude is saying there are 60 Honus Wagners and 78 Mario 3's, because SPORTS CARDS.

I'm saying there's 60 Honus Wagners and 18 million Mario 3's because VIDEO GAMES.

 

You get my point, right?

Yea but how many of those Honus Wagners are still sealed?

[OptOut | 8,883]

2 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

Yea but how many of those Honus Wagners are still sealed?

Are you making my point for me?

What I'm saying is that all baseball card collectors have to fight over are the 60 extant Honus Wagners, from worst to best condition, in totality that is all there are. If you want one, that's the supply, beginning and end.

If you are a video game collector, you can pick from any of MILLIONS of copies of Super Mario 3!!! Yes, they are not all sealed, but who is buying sealed games? It is a TINY niche within video game collecting!

 

Let's put it this way, if there are ten million baseball card collectors, there's close to ten million people who want a Honus Wagner. If there are ten million video game collectors, there's probably way less than ten THOUSAND people who want a sealed Mario 3.

Comparing the rarity of a baseball card with the rarity of a sealed game is a SUPPLY SIDE equivocation ONLY. It COMPLETELY misses the DEMAND side, which among video game collectors can be satisfied by non-sealed and non-graded copies of games.

[Gulag Joe | 582]

17 minutes ago, OptOut said:

Are you making my point for me?

What I'm saying is that all baseball card collectors have to fight over are the 60 extant Honus Wagners, from worst to best condition, in totality that is all there are. If you want one, that's the supply, beginning and end.

If you are a video game collector, you can pick from any of MILLIONS of copies of Super Mario 3!!! Yes, they are not all sealed, but who is buying sealed games? It is a TINY niche within video game collecting!

 

Let's put it this way, if there are ten million baseball card collectors, there's close to ten million people who want a Honus Wagner. If there are ten million video game collectors, there's probably way less than ten THOUSAND people who want a sealed Mario 3.

Comparing the rarity of a baseball card with the rarity of a sealed game is a SUPPLY SIDE equivocation ONLY. It COMPLETELY misses the DEMAND side, which among video game collectors can be satisfied by non-sealed and non-graded copies of games.

Perhaps. However, I think the population report for people who collect video games may very well grow to the number of sports card collectors out there over the next 20 years.

[OptOut | 8,883]

1 minute ago, Gulag Joe said:

Perhaps. However, I think the population report for people who collect video games may very well grow to the number of sports card collectors out there over the next 20 years.

But, I'm saying that there already ARE millions of video game collectors, and there have been for decades! It's just they are satisfied collecting games that are open, loose and ungraded! Sports cards collectors buy graded cards because that IS the hobby. Video games are so much more. 

Think of how many retro games, in TOTAL are being sold on ebay, Amazon, gamestores and other methods every SINGLE day... Hundreds of thousands of transactions, totalling millions of dollars EVERYDAY! You must see how the sealed/graded market is basically nothing by comparison, right?

Why do you think that the SEALED niche is going to grow to encompass the majority of game collectors? I'm not saying the market for graded games hasn't grown, or won't continue to grow. But if you are waiting for the tens of millions of ALREADY ACTIVE GAME COLLECTORS to "wake-up" to graded collecting, honestly I think you are making a losing bet.

[inasuma | 1,203]

3 hours ago, OptOut said:

The dude is saying there are 60 Honus Wagners and 78 Mario 3's, because SPORTS CARDS.

I'm saying there's 60 Honus Wagners and 18 million Mario 3's because VIDEO GAMES.

 

You get my point, right?

If I’m trying to find a correlation, and you’re right, Mario 3 just won’t work. What about hangtab Mario 1? How many of those exist sealed in high grade? That’s what folks mean when making rarity comparisons.

For better or worse.

[OptOut | 8,883]

4 minutes ago, inasuma said:

If I’m trying to find a correlation, and you’re right, Mario 3 just won’t work. What about hangtab Mario 1? How many of those exist sealed in high grade? That’s what folks mean when making rarity comparisons.

For better or worse.

For me, that's still not good enough, I'm afraid... The comparison is still pitting the demand of ALL baseball card collectors (for Honus Wagner) against a SMALL NICHE of video game collectors (for hangtab Mario 1).

The fact is, the vast majority of video game collectors WILL be satisfied with a copy of Super Mario Bros from any of the many millions available, depending on their personal standards for completeness, condition, and variety, LONG BEFORE they seek out a hangtab Mario 1. People collecting video games start as a huge glut at the bottom, feeding on loose carts, and the numbers whittle down from there as the price, condition and scarcity goes up.

I'm not saying that these games shouldn't be valuable, I'm not saying a hangtab Mario isn't WORTH a million dollars or whatever. I'm just saying that it doesn't represent nearly the same thing as a rare sports card, where you either have it or you don't.

I OWN Mario 1 and it doesn't need to be a hangtab to scratch my itch. I'm sure EVERY sports card collector wants a Honus Wagner, but they'll NEVER own one, that itch cannot possibly be scratched.

[inasuma | 1,203]

38 minutes ago, OptOut said:

For me, that's still not good enough, I'm afraid... The comparison is still pitting the demand of ALL baseball card collectors (for Honus Wagner) against a SMALL NICHE of video game collectors (for hangtab Mario 1).

The fact is, the vast majority of video game collectors WILL be satisfied with a copy of Super Mario Bros from any of the many millions available, depending on their personal standards for completeness, condition, and variety, LONG BEFORE they seek out a hangtab Mario 1. People collecting video games start as a huge glut at the bottom, feeding on loose carts, and the numbers whittle down from there as the price, condition and scarcity goes up.

I'm not saying that these games shouldn't be valuable, I'm not saying a hangtab Mario isn't WORTH a million dollars or whatever. I'm just saying that it doesn't represent nearly the same thing as a rare sports card, where you either have it or you don't.

I OWN Mario 1 and it doesn't need to be a hangtab to scratch my itch. I'm sure EVERY sports card collector wants a Honus Wagner, but they'll NEVER own one, that itch cannot possibly be scratched.

That makes perfect sense to me. I don’t know enough about baseball to know one way or another sadly, but if a Wagner is indeed sought after by even half of the baseball card collecting community, then the comparison doesn’t work for video games. 

[jonebone | 1,307]

6 hours ago, OptOut said:

Are you making my point for me?

What I'm saying is that all baseball card collectors have to fight over are the 60 extant Honus Wagners, from worst to best condition, in totality that is all there are. If you want one, that's the supply, beginning and end.

If you are a video game collector, you can pick from any of MILLIONS of copies of Super Mario 3!!! Yes, they are not all sealed, but who is buying sealed games? It is a TINY niche within video game collecting!

Let's put it this way, if there are ten million baseball card collectors, there's close to ten million people who want a Honus Wagner. If there are ten million video game collectors, there's probably way less than ten THOUSAND people who want a sealed Mario 3.

Comparing the rarity of a baseball card with the rarity of a sealed game is a SUPPLY SIDE equivocation ONLY. It COMPLETELY misses the DEMAND side, which among video game collectors can be satisfied by non-sealed and non-graded copies of games.

I don't know why this Honus Wagner analogy is still going but I'll humor it.

You say there's only 60 copies of Wagner vs. 18 million SMB3?  Well that's wrong, there's an infinite supply of Wagners because reprints are sold on a daily basis.  You can get your $2.5M Wagner card as 1 of 60 or you can get your reprint card that is $5 (with sales on a daily basis on ebay).  No different here, get 1 of 500-1000 or so SMB3 sealed / graded copies or buy the loose cart for $25.  

Oddly enough, sealed collecting is the one with growing demand (speculators / investors / collectors / grading companies / etc.) but the loose cart market is the one dying (NES / SNES classics, repros, virtual console, etc.)  I have the hardware hooked up to a CRT because that's what us odd folk do, but last time we've played anything it was NES / SNES or Genesis classic through HDMI in the basement.  

Sealed game collecting is not niche anymore, you can't say that when auction houses have picked it up and prices have exploded.  It's the loose cart collecting that is becoming more niche and gamer oriented.  That's why you're seeing loose SE prices stall out compared to some of the highs of sealed. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by jonebone

[OptOut | 8,883]

1 hour ago, jonebone said:

You say there's only 60 copies of Wagner vs. 18 million SMB3?  Well that's wrong, there's an infinite supply of Wagners because reprints are sold on a daily basis. 

This analogy is also imperfect. A reprint of Honus Wagner would not be comparable to an AUTHENTIC cart only SMB, even if each were five bucks. One is the real deal, original product, the other is a counterfeit fake.

We actually DO see some game collectors buying reproductions, of course, whether knowingly or unknowingly... But are they buying reproductions of Hangtab Mario games or Sealed heavy hitters? No, generally not. They are buying fake carts, for the most part...

 

There is LIMITED organic demand for sealed and graded videogames, fullstop. It simply doesn't appeal to the VAST majority of videogame enthusiasts. Is it a growing segment, as you claim? Well, seeing as it had a VERY low floor to grow from, the answer is clearly YES... but is that growth sustainable, and are the people participating in that growth the sorts of people likely to maintain their interest over the longer term, like we have around here for 10, 20, 30 years?

I guess THAT remains to be seen, doesn't it...

Edited November 18, 2021 by OptOut