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MemberPosted
On 9/11/2021 at 11:36 AM, OptOut said:

Makes sense, seeing as Spiderman has been on a twenty year upswing in popularity since the first movie came out, whereas Superman's movies have been pretty suck in the same time period.

I'd pick Spidey over Supes for sure, although I still like Batman better than either of em! 馃槈

Also important to note that the comic mentioned is nearly 60 years old. The rarity of the condition (ie. high-end grade) is likely to be as close to absolute certainty by now. With video games, we are still seeing more and more come out with each year and the pop data is still evolving.

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On 9/9/2021 at 7:26 PM, AnimalHouse said:

Besides Bioshock and Gears of War. There are many ungraded sealed first print 360 titles increasing in value:

Assassins Creed, Call of Duty 2/World at War/Call of Duty 4/Modern Warfare 2/Black Ops,聽Dead Space, Fallout 3,聽Grand Theft Auto V, Halo 3, Left 4 Dead, Mass Effect, Minecraft Edition, Operation Darkness,聽Red Dead Redemption,聽Rumble Roses XX, Saints Row, Saw, Oblivion "T" Rating, Skyrim聽and the Simpsons Game.

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2 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

Are you of the opinion that graded SM64s are rare? 聽Or are you saying high graded ones aren鈥檛 rare? 聽None of those links showed a 9.8 A++, which is incredibly rare. What am I missing here?馃し

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Just now, Ricky Winterborn said:

Are you of the opinion that graded SM64s are rare? 聽Or are you saying high graded ones aren鈥檛 rare? 聽None of those links showed a 9.8 A++, which is incredibly rare. What am I missing here?馃し

I am of the camp that sealed SM64s are not rare. 9.6 A++ is high grade.聽

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3 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

I am of the camp that sealed SM64s are not rare. 9.6 A++ is high grade.聽

Gotcha. Yeah I don鈥檛 think the seal is what鈥檚 rare. Don鈥檛 get me wrong, it鈥檚 always amazing when a 25 yr old artifact not meant to be collected remains in a retail condition. In the case of SM64, it was the conditional rarity (9.8 A++) that made it so rare and special. That 9.6 is cool too. Not as cool depending on how some collect graded games. For me personally, mint copies are like little time travel machines.聽

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1 minute ago, Ricky Winterborn said:

Gotcha. Yeah I don鈥檛 think the seal is what鈥檚 rare. Don鈥檛 get me wrong, it鈥檚 always amazing when a 25 yr old artifact not meant to be collected remains in a retail condition. In the case of SM64, it was the conditional rarity (9.8 A++) that made it so rare and special. That 9.6 is cool too. Not as cool depending on how some collect graded games. For me personally, mint copies are like little time travel machines.聽

I have two points why I cannot agree with what you said.

Point #1:聽In regards to "conditional" rarity, @jonebone's review on the VGA-to-Wata scale, while using the Carolina Collection as a means of mapping this out, has shown that a VGA 85 is (at best) a 9.6 A. And that a VGA 85+ is (also at best) a 9.8 A++. With a VGA 90, at better odds, being a 9.8 A++. Which translates to them saying that their 9.8 A++ graded SMB 64s are more around a 85+ to 90, which VGA says are NM+ and NM+/Mint. Where as Wata says that an 85+ or higher is mint. Which means that a 9.6 A++ is as "time machine" mint as a 9.8 A++.

Point #2:聽The difference between a 9.6 and a 9.8 always depends on the graders. As an example, a number of CGC 9.8 graded comics would regrade as CBCS 9.6s. Because graders there were expected to grade softly when they have a large enough quota to meet. But even then, Wata themselves have admitted that VGA 90 is anything between a 9.4 A to a 9.8 A++. So in terms of grading, those 9.6 A++s and 9.8 A++s more than likely translate to either a VGA 90 or 90+. Because to get a 95 it has to look like it was it was in a shipping box's sweet spot prior to being graded.

So yeah... If you only collect 9.8 A++s, more power to ya. All I know is that I am willing to go for an 80+ if it looks 85. Just because there are just as many 'low grades' as there are high ones.

Which is not cheap, nor easy, thanks to my variation of Asperger's.聽馃槄

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8 minutes ago, FenrirZero said:

I have two points why I cannot agree with what you said.

Point #1:聽In regards to "conditional" rarity, @jonebone's review on the VGA-to-Wata scale, while using the Carolina Collection as a means of mapping this out, has shown that a VGA 85 is (at best) a 9.6 A. And that a VGA 85+ is (also at best) a 9.8 A++. With a VGA 90, at better odds, being a 9.8 A++. Which translates to them saying that their 9.8 A++ graded SMB 64s are more around a 85+ to 90, which VGA says are NM+ and NM+/Mint. Where as Wata says that an 85+ or higher is mint. Which means that a 9.6 A++ is as "time machine" mint as a 9.8 A++.

Point #2:聽The difference between a 9.6 and a 9.8 always depends on the graders. As an example, a number of CGC 9.8 graded comics would regrade as CBCS 9.6s. Because graders there were expected to grade softly when they have a large enough quota to meet. But even then, Wata themselves have admitted that VGA 90 is anything between a 9.4 A to a 9.8 A++. So in terms of grading, those 9.6 A++s and 9.8 A++s more than likely translate to either a VGA 90 or 90+. Because to get a 95 it has to look like it was it was in a shipping box's sweet spot prior to being graded.

So yeah... If you only collect 9.8 A++s, more power to ya. All I know is that I am willing to go for an 80+ if it looks 85. Just because there are just as many 'low grades' as there are high ones.

Which is not cheap, nor easy, thanks to my variation of Asperger's.聽馃槄

You made some very good/logical points. I agree with you 100%. Bidders should try and win that VGA 80+ SMB64 (or even the uncirculated VGA 95 gem mint copy) on Goldin Auctions and you are going to save thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, instead of going for the SMB WATA 9.8.

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MemberPosted
2 hours ago, FenrirZero said:

I have two points why I cannot agree with what you said.

Point #1:聽In regards to "conditional" rarity, @jonebone's review on the VGA-to-Wata scale, while using the Carolina Collection as a means of mapping this out, has shown that a VGA 85 is (at best) a 9.6 A. And that a VGA 85+ is (also at best) a 9.8 A++. With a VGA 90, at better odds, being a 9.8 A++. Which translates to them saying that their 9.8 A++ graded SMB 64s are more around a 85+ to 90, which VGA says are NM+ and NM+/Mint. Where as Wata says that an 85+ or higher is mint. Which means that a 9.6 A++ is as "time machine" mint as a 9.8 A++.

Point #2:聽The difference between a 9.6 and a 9.8 always depends on the graders. As an example, a number of CGC 9.8 graded comics would regrade as CBCS 9.6s. Because graders there were expected to grade softly when they have a large enough quota to meet. But even then, Wata themselves have admitted that VGA 90 is anything between a 9.4 A to a 9.8 A++. So in terms of grading, those 9.6 A++s and 9.8 A++s more than likely translate to either a VGA 90 or 90+. Because to get a 95 it has to look like it was it was in a shipping box's sweet spot prior to being graded.

So yeah... If you only collect 9.8 A++s, more power to ya. All I know is that I am willing to go for an 80+ if it looks 85. Just because there are just as many 'low grades' as there are high ones.

Which is not cheap, nor easy, thanks to my variation of Asperger's.聽馃槄

I congratulate you for making a lengthy valid post and resisting the mighty urge of not mentioning that 3-letter acronym!

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MemberPosted
4 hours ago, Ricky Winterborn said:

Gotcha. Yeah I don鈥檛 think the seal is what鈥檚 rare. Don鈥檛 get me wrong, it鈥檚 always amazing when a 25 yr old artifact not meant to be collected remains in a retail condition. In the case of SM64, it was the conditional rarity (9.8 A++) that made it so rare and special. That 9.6 is cool too. Not as cool depending on how some collect graded games. For me personally, mint copies are like little time travel machines.聽

Having a 9.8A++ is certainly no mean feat, but trying to equate the condition rarity of Mario 64 with a 1.5M price tag isn鈥檛 really the same argument.聽

Then if you鈥檙e talking about an investment angle, you basically have to hope it sells for 2M in order to make any sort of profit if you鈥檙e the recent buyer of said game. Which is mind-blowingly crazy!

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MemberPosted
6 hours ago, FenrirZero said:

Point #2:聽The difference between a 9.6 and a 9.8 always depends on the graders. As an example, a number of CGC 9.8 graded comics would regrade as CBCS 9.6s. Because graders there were expected to grade softly when they have a large enough quota to meet.聽

359FCD00-47C5-4895-891D-1764F17FE721.jpeg.5c882b1ac3e2134ae151d852e05f9eea.jpeg

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MemberPosted
8 hours ago, FenrirZero said:

I have two points why I cannot agree with what you said.

Point #1:聽In regards to "conditional" rarity, @jonebone's review on the VGA-to-Wata scale, while using the Carolina Collection as a means of mapping this out, has shown that a VGA 85 is (at best) a 9.6 A. And that a VGA 85+ is (also at best) a 9.8 A++. With a VGA 90, at better odds, being a 9.8 A++. Which translates to them saying that their 9.8 A++ graded SMB 64s are more around a 85+ to 90, which VGA says are NM+ and NM+/Mint. Where as Wata says that an 85+ or higher is mint. Which means that a 9.6 A++ is as "time machine" mint as a 9.8 A++.

Point #2:聽The difference between a 9.6 and a 9.8 always depends on the graders. As an example, a number of CGC 9.8 graded comics would regrade as CBCS 9.6s. Because graders there were expected to grade softly when they have a large enough quota to meet. But even then, Wata themselves have admitted that VGA 90 is anything between a 9.4 A to a 9.8 A++. So in terms of grading, those 9.6 A++s and 9.8 A++s more than likely translate to either a VGA 90 or 90+. Because to get a 95 it has to look like it was it was in a shipping box's sweet spot prior to being graded.

So yeah... If you only collect 9.8 A++s, more power to ya. All I know is that I am willing to go for an 80+ if it looks 85. Just because there are just as many 'low grades' as there are high ones.

Which is not cheap, nor easy, thanks to my variation of Asperger's.聽馃槄

Jone's data really doesn't say what you want it to say. Out of 203 85+s in that data, exactly two crossed to 9.8/A++. That's a rate of very slightly under 1%. The correct statement is not "a VGA 85+ is (also at best) a 9.8 A++", but "a VGA 85+ is virtually never a 9.8 A++".

Even out of the 90s, from a total of 34, only 7 crossed to 9.8/A++. That's a 'success rate' of only slightly over 20%, or to put it another way, a given VGA 90 is four times more likely to grade lower than 9.8/A++ than it is to grade 9.8/A++.

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11 hours ago, FenrirZero said:

I have two points why I cannot agree with what you said.

Point #1:聽In regards to "conditional" rarity, @jonebone's review on the VGA-to-Wata scale, while using the Carolina Collection as a means of mapping this out, has shown that a VGA 85 is (at best) a 9.6 A. And that a VGA 85+ is (also at best) a 9.8 A++. With a VGA 90, at better odds, being a 9.8 A++. Which translates to them saying that their 9.8 A++ graded SMB 64s are more around a 85+ to 90, which VGA says are NM+ and NM+/Mint. Where as Wata says that an 85+ or higher is mint. Which means that a 9.6 A++ is as "time machine" mint as a 9.8 A++.

I didn't interpret the notional bands this way. I saw 85+ as having ~1% likelihood of which 9.8. In my experience, 85 crosses commonly to 9.2-9.4 A+ (or A++), and 85+/90 crosses to 9.4-9.6 A++ (never had a 9.8 but I've only crossed four games total).

That said, VGA has historically heavily criticized seal condition; meaning an A+ wata seal could put your VGA cross down to the 85 or lower level because of scuffing which A+ allows.

EDIT: Btw, I think we should probably move the graded discussion over to that general sealed/graded discussion thread.聽

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On 9/14/2021 at 11:08 PM, tidaldreams said:

Womp womp. Still seems pretty pricy though. Guess those $10-15 copies weren't such a bad buy.

image.png.c4c4db57a82fd61b57b186299da9ff61.png

FWIW, the dozens that sold after the first sale were all the ones with the orange sticker on them. These are more readily available from case packs in the $15 shipped range. But how often can you repeat a sale for $100s when the game is on Ebay for $15 shipped, who knows.

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24 minutes ago, DefaultGen said:

FWIW, the dozens that sold after the first sale were all the ones with the orange sticker on them. These are more readily available from case packs in the $15 shipped range. But how often can you repeat a sale for $100s when the game is on Ebay for $15 shipped, who knows.

Yeah, I only got two of the 10/10 ones. Those seemed a bit harder to get.

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MemberPosted
1 hour ago, guitarzombie said:

Can someone explain the difference this .2 makes?

It makes a huge amount of difference to a certain type of collector/investor who is just playing a numbers game. This is essentially a way of injecting a rarity component to a collectible item that is not particularly rare. That's how you get to these super high valuations. There are a ton of og Charizard cards out there, but not many are 10s, so a 10 is way more valuable even if you probably can't see the difference between it and a 9.5. There are a ton of Lebron rookie cards out there, but not so many 10s. The formula is basically "desirable but fairly common item * extremely high grade = desirable rare item". It depends on graders not giving out the very high grades much, and they do tend to keep up their end of the bargain. WATA does not give out a lot of 9.8s. VGA does not give out a lot of anything over a 90.

If you want a nice graded copy of a game to put on a shelf for some reason, get an 85+ or a 9.4. You don't need a 9.8 or even a 9.6. But if you're playing the collectible market investment numbers game, the 9.8 is worth waaaaay more simply because it's a higher number and there won't be a lot of them. You have one of only [a fairly small number] 9.8s in the world!

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