The Price Thread (predictions, hot prices, cold prices, anomalies, etc)

[fusoyaff2 | 50]

On 5/28/2021 at 9:44 AM, RegularGuyGamer said:

Ok which one of you sent your $150 NWC 1990 repro to WATA and now want $2k for it?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/133773273031

Wasn't me, but I actually have this exact item (not graded). Didn't realize there were only 50 carts with the autographs! I don't think I spent more than $75 or so when it came out new.....

[RegularGuyGamer | 2,011]

1 hour ago, fusoyaff2 said:

Wasn't me, but I actually have this exact item (not graded). Didn't realize there were only 50 carts with the autographs! I don't think I spent more than $75 or so when it came out new.....

I think they were north of $100 at the release, I could be wrong. I have one as well. 

[yZoneFox | 18]

On 4/11/2021 at 4:54 PM, DeuceGamer said:

Maybe not the right thread, but is there a site that tracks graded games specifically? I know Pricecharting snd Gamevaluenow have a section, but they don’t seem to track much. Any other resources?

You can email the owners of both sites to add sales that were not caught. You can even request they add entirely new listings if they aren't there. I notice some special editions aren't added. They have different UPCs. Email the info. The tools only catch so much. I do like how GVN save screencaps for some listings, at least, for a little bit. I'm not sure how long they sit, before the database dumps that data.

[yZoneFox | 18]

On 5/23/2021 at 7:15 PM, Sir Centroid said:

When sealed copies of a game are going for the same amount as CIB copies and there are either very few copies or no copies available of either CIB or sealed, that's usually a recipe for a price spike.

I can confirm this as well. People buy the sealed copies because why not if they are as cheap as loose and they get CIB. The only available copies left will be loose. Sellers will usually price higher their CIB and sealed copies from that moment.

One title I was sitting on a while before grabbing it at the very last moment before the spike was Juka and the Monophonic Menace (GBA). Sealed copies were like $20 from those clearout sellers. Cart only listings were going for around the same amount. The alarm bell went off, and I was able to get it before everyone realized it was an interesting game they wanted to pick up but were sitting on their hands.

I will caution though. This past year has made this decision a little more cloudy. It really depends on how many titles are out there. Hype will keep prices high, but I don't know how long this can last realistically when there are tons of listings. The newbies right now are keeping widely available PS3 at a high price on ebay. I'm specifically thinking of Puppeteer and 3D Dot Game Heroes.

Edited June 17, 2021 by yZoneFox

[Sir Centroid | 79]

Kirby Star Stacker on GB is looking to be another game boy game that'll be $40-$50+ in the next year. There's a whopping 5 US copies on eBay, so it'll be fun to see where that one goes.

Shantae and the Pirate's Curse on 3DS will likely be pushing $150+ not too long from now, that one is honestly a no brainer. A couple of reasons pointing to why this'll be the case. It's the only other way to play it on a handheld, and physical 3DS copies are currently the most "affordable" way to play it, not including digital (duh).

[chuppy44 | 56]

13 hours ago, Sir Centroid said:

Shantae and the Pirate's Curse on 3DS will likely be pushing $150+ not too long from now, that one is honestly a no brainer. A couple of reasons pointing to why this'll be the case. It's the only other way to play it on a handheld, and physical 3DS copies are currently the most "affordable" way to play it, not including digital (duh).

Would be surprised if the Switch port is still worth more than the original a couple years from now. Especially when they are planning another physical port for PS5.

[Sir Centroid | 79]

1 hour ago, chuppy44 said:

Would be surprised if the Switch port is still worth more than the original a couple years from now. Especially when they are planning another physical port for PS5.

Seeing as how the Switch is a portable system and the PS5 isn't, I don't see the PS5 copies having a huge impact on the price of Switch copies. If people just wanted to play the game on any console and didn't want to pay $500+ for a switch copy, they most likely would have either bought the PS4 physical version (Still pricey, but not $500+ pricey) or a digital copy on the numerous platforms. Much like how some people thought that the Shantae re-release on GBC by LRG would impact prices of the original GBC release (It didn't), I can see why people would think the same with Pirate's Curse, but it won't.

For one thing, plenty of people simply won't purchase the PS5 version because they can't get their hands on a PS5 yet, and are probably thinking that they'll just pay x2 as much on the second hand market when they can finally get their hands on a PS5. I've always found the logic of "I won't buy the games until I own the console" to be stupid, since you run the risk of missing out on awesome sales on games that you know you'll want to play later on, but that's how many people operate.

Oh, and the Switch is a Nintendo console. I mean, do we really even need to go over the fact that Nintendo ports of most games seem to always cost more than on other consoles? Plus you've got insane full set collectors, and Shantae collectors as a sub group, and bla bla bla. The only thing that's going to impact the switch port of Pirate's Curse prices, is the overall softening of the market right now.

[Tanooki | 4,930]

Ok since we're talking nutty pricing.  And since Shantae GBC came up and the LRG game supposedly hadn't made a dent in the least against it, what's that say for the LRG game as it is a legitimate release and not some lame boot, and it's potentially even more limited in copies than the old Capcom run 20 years ago.  Where do we see that copy going?  1 year, 5years?

[sp1nz | 611]

3 hours ago, Tanooki said:

Ok since we're talking nutty pricing.  And since Shantae GBC came up and the LRG game supposedly hadn't made a dent in the least against it, what's that say for the LRG game as it is a legitimate release and not some lame boot, and it's potentially even more limited in copies than the old Capcom run 20 years ago.  Where do we see that copy going?  1 year, 5years?

Apparently LRG GBC Shantae got 7000 Standard Editions and 5000 Collector's Editions printed. I can't see the re-print getting even to even a 3rd of the price of the original (whatever the original is worth at the same time) considering virtually none of them will get junked. Color me surprised if it does. And for a random prediction in 1 year SE is maybe worth 200$ and CE 300$, in 5 years maybe double that if the market keeps climbing. In case of Limited Run ceasing their operations in future I could see a surge in prices across the board just because.

[Tanooki | 4,930]

Maybe so, but you'd have to wonder how many of the original were made that have been lost.  I think the minimum run was 10000, could have been more, probably wayforward could say.

[AdamW | 713]

I think that's @sp1nz's point? Given how many of the LRG ones were made and the fact that almost none will have been lost (and many won't have been opened even), the LRG one will never be as rare/pricey as the OG since most of the OGs would be opened and many would be lost or incomplete.

[sp1nz | 611]

2 hours ago, Tanooki said:

Maybe so, but you'd have to wonder how many of the original were made that have been lost.  I think the minimum run was 10000, could have been more, probably wayforward could say.

Here are some of my thoughts on the original print run / lost copies / desirability between the releases / retro re-prints.

The Shantae GBC Wikipedia article states "It is rumored that the game had only one run of 20–25,000 copies".

Hard to say how many have been lost. In any case Shantae GBC was released in the last year of American retail GBC releases (this would add credence to a low print run). 2002 wasn't yet a year when video games were considered collectible by the masses and the game was a new IP too. For argument's sake let's say about 60% or less survived with cart, instructions and box. That's 12-15,000 copies max of the original vs. 12,000 copies of the re-print. Then we consider original having true organic collectability and the re-print being made to demand - not that everyone who would like to own the original Shantae knew about the re-print or ordered one but many did and also many speculators and random collectors not after the original Shantae did.

Speculators and non-hardcore collectors will sell a re-print copy easier in future than someone who owns authentic original. So there's unknown % of re-prints that are being speculated with and kept on lock or sold off instantly for a small easy profit, unknown % that are not in long term collector homes and unknown % that are in long term collector homes. So while the re-print is official, the hardcore collectors aren't as interested in getting one in second hand market for inflated prices as much as the original and less hardcore collectors might not create a high enough demand to propel the re-print into crazy money territory. In any case the supply that will be willingly sold should be a decent chunk of the overall %. Same thing with any other LRG retro re-print or Retro-Bit re-prints - they are a nice substitute for the real thing or a variant for a fan of the game or a series/developer/publisher collector but they don't quite replace the want for originals in the long run for most serious collectors- at least they wouldn't do that for me.

Retro re-prints can even be undesirable with high enough starting prices or second hand listing prices - the iam8bit Mega Man X re-print still hasn't even sold out at its 100$ retail price but the print was "insanely" large to begin with at 8500. Still that's a bad showing over almost 3 years especially when 1000 of the games were even made with alternate color cart shells, so you had the lucky chance to double dib on the artificial scarcity department. Ironically the iam8bit Mega Man 2 was more expensive on launch than an original CIB and still pretty much is, yet it has sold out. The only retro re-print I have bought is the Shantae CE, even though I own the original CIB too. Also since I don't really care for the practice of re-prints I guess I see more value/collectability in Shantae than the other re-prints at least by the virtue of putting the money in for it or I just wanted to own it as an addition to my Shantae collection more than re-prints in other series.

And here we have a nice sheet by someone that tracks LRG distributed and released games (I got the Shantae re-print numbers from here). It shows how much people care for most of the retro re-prints via LRG:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ko7iYqZDcr5Leq6I_1byupsVcyFjFZDYItTK5qhOwxk/edit#gid=1152645682

[NESfiend | 1,514]

On 5/28/2021 at 8:44 AM, RegularGuyGamer said:

Ok which one of you sent your $150 NWC 1990 repro to WATA and now want $2k for it?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/133773273031

They grade repros? Why?

[Gloves | 11,761]

Just now, NESfiend said:

They grade repros? Why?

[attakid101 | 267]

Any opinions on why the price of Mountain Bike Rally/Speed Race has stayed stagnant while other SNES games have jumped?
 

People on eBay are trying to make it a $2K game (cart only) but the market seems to have it priced closer to $1K—which is where it’s been for years it seems.

Edited August 23, 2021 by attakid101

[ThePhleo | 2,184]

19 minutes ago, attakid101 said:

Any opinions on why the price of Mountain Bike Rally/Speed Race has stayed stagnant while other SNES games have jumped?
 

People on eBay are trying to make it a $2K game (cart only) but the market seems to have it priced closer to $1K—which is where it’s been for years it seems.

I guess there’s a fear between old times collectors who know the potential of many sealed popping up prevent them from buying into it.

That, and MBR/SR is a completionist collectors item only. So with it being completionist only, it comes with some additional negatives.

1. SNES has a licensed library that’s significantly larger than the NES making it hard to want a full set to begin with.
2. There aren’t a lot new collectors flocking to SNES fullsets, just SNES “keys”
3. Whether true or not, the collectors that DO want the fullset have a sizable subset of people who view the game as a non-commercial release and it’s “skippable”, so the market is shrunk yet again.
4. It’s a game that can be had separately in two other unique releases, so it’s another excuse for fullset collectors to ignore. Very little impact I think, but still something to think about.
5. It’s not as “cool” as Hagane, Aero Fighters, Earthbound, Final Fight Guy, EVO, DK Competition, and Star Fox Weekend…it’s more comparable to Super Copa, a weird version of the game that’s neat to look at with cheaper alternatives.

[jonebone | 1,307]

9 hours ago, attakid101 said:

Any opinions on why the price of Mountain Bike Rally/Speed Race has stayed stagnant while other SNES games have jumped?
 

People on eBay are trying to make it a $2K game (cart only) but the market seems to have it priced closer to $1K—which is where it’s been for years it seems.

People don't full set collect anymore.  Well, the investors / speculators driving the market aren't full set collecting.

[Tanooki | 4,930]

Maybe we need to spread this around more?  It'll help people with their price madness maybe get a reality check.

 

[Jaden | 151]

Karl Jobst is an absolute legend.

[TDIRunner | 2,725]

2 hours ago, Tanooki said:

Maybe we need to spread this around more?  It'll help people with their price madness maybe get a reality check.

 

Gloves shared the video in the heritage Auctions Thread a little while ago before I had a chance to.  It's an extremely informative video and I hope many people watch it.  

[attakid101 | 267]

On 8/22/2021 at 7:29 PM, attakid101 said:

Any opinions on why the price of Mountain Bike Rally/Speed Race has stayed stagnant while other SNES games have jumped?
 

People on eBay are trying to make it a $2K game (cart only) but the market seems to have it priced closer to $1K—which is where it’s been for years it seems.

Well it seems that that market has decided this game is now worth over $2K…

What a world…

[c4 | 33]

On 2/25/2024 at 12:17 PM, attakid101 said:

Well it seems that that market has decided this game is now worth over $2K…

What a world…

It's worth mentioning that this cartridge is in very good condition, making it particularly appealing to some collectors. We've observed two other sales recently: one for a cartridge in great condition and another in acceptable condition, which sold for $2K. It would be intriguing to see how a cartridge in similar condition would fare in the current market.

Indeed, the values for this game are on the rise. 

Check out the details at Mynty here

Edited February 28 by c4

[tbone3969 | 304]

I mean it is really, really rare.  People throw the term "rare" around way too much.  In this case it is warranted.  Not surprised at all where the price of this one has gone.