The Price Thread (predictions, hot prices, cold prices, anomalies, etc)

[DeuceGamer | 35]

Maybe not the right thread, but is there a site that tracks graded games specifically? I know Pricecharting snd Gamevaluenow have a section, but they don’t seem to track much. Any other resources?

[jonebone | 1,307]

On 4/9/2021 at 3:12 PM, AdamW said:

As someone who's fairly new here I do wonder whether mass-produced "plastic games" can reasonably hold valuations as high as mass-produced "cardboard games", when the containers are in general sturdier, and more susceptible to replacement if broken. You can swap out a jewel case or a DVD-style case - either entirely, or just parts, like the disc tray - quite easily, unless it's a special one with a logo imprinted on it or some kind of specific multi-disc arrangement; you can't swap out a cardboard box except with another entire cardboard box of the same game...even if the case is unusual/unique, and even though they are susceptible to damage to varying extents, you've gotta think more plastic ones are likely to have survived in acceptable shape than cardboard ones.

You've gotta think there must be quite a lot more Final Fantasy VIIs (ignoring variant concerns, for this purpose) or Xs out there in collectible condition than cardboard Pokemons or Super Mario Worlds, right?

Cases are certainly more durable yes.  But finding a nice condition cart is way easier than a mint disc with no scratching at all.  Under the Wata CIB grading method the box is 50% while the cart / disc is only 30%, but still finding true 9.4 and up CIBs on any platform will not be as easy as you may think.  

[DeuceGamer | 35]

1 hour ago, jonebone said:

Cases are certainly more durable yes.  But finding a nice condition cart is way easier than a mint disc with no scratching at all.  Under the Wata CIB grading method the box is 50% while the cart / disc is only 30%, but still finding true 9.4 and up CIBs on any platform will not be as easy as you may think.  

Yea, I think a lot of the modern stuff is more condition sensitive than people realize. Not sure what the best term is, but the artwork forms around the grooves in the plastic cases. The manuals are sometimes damaged as soon as you open the game from sliding around inside the case during shipping. Of course discs have their own issues and scratches.  Blu Rays have more protection, but it’s still an issue.

Obviously not on the scale of cardboard, which had large amounts tossed day one, but modern stuff presents its own challenges as well.

 

Edited April 12, 2021 by DeuceGamer

[chuppy44 | 56]

10 hours ago, jonebone said:

Cases are certainly more durable yes.  But finding a nice condition cart is way easier than a mint disc with no scratching at all.  Under the Wata CIB grading method the box is 50% while the cart / disc is only 30%, but still finding true 9.4 and up CIBs on any platform will not be as easy as you may think.  

For cardboard that makes sense (the discrepancy should be higher than that if anything) but surely they are not placing more importance on plastic CD cases than the discs? Those cases should be seen as more an equivalent to NES dust covers (which Wata says they don't even count in the rating) rather than boxes. Aren't they completely interchangeable (with few exceptions)? Cover sleeves are another story of course but those do almost always stay in nice condition as opposed to discs.

Edited April 12, 2021 by chuppy44

[DefaultGen | 5,401]

13 minutes ago, chuppy44 said:

For cardboard that makes sense (the discrepancy should be higher than that if anything) but surely they are not placing more importance on plastic CD cases than the discs? Those cases should be seen as more an equivalent to NES dust covers (which Wata says they don't even count in the rating) rather than boxes. Aren't they completely interchangeable (with few exceptions)? Cover sleeves are another story of course but those do almost always stay in nice condition as opposed to discs.

They are interchangeable but I also think people overestimate how easy it is to get exactly correct, mint replacements for their jewel cases and DVDs. Not sure what the current replacement jewel case situation is like, but AFAIK zero currently-manufactured jewel cases are to the spec of the 90s jewel cases. All are much cheaper. When I had to replace a few, I bought some NOS 90s Sony music CDs to get equal quality cases. With DVD cases there are dozens of minor variations few people have a great handle on. I think grading modern CIB disc crap is silly, but just in terms of getting nice cases for your collection, it's a bit of a pain. It's also possible Wata just won't care about one million percent correct DVD and jewel cases like they don't really care about baggies or inserts that much.

Edited April 12, 2021 by DefaultGen

[AdamW | 713]

I know music CD collectors care about getting jewel cases right, it may become more of a Thing over time, I guess. As well as the exact details of the case design and the tray, there are things like cases that actually have a company name stamped into them (I have quite a few music CDs with the publisher's logo stamped in the jewel case somewhere for e.g.)

[attakid101 | 267]

On 4/8/2021 at 9:17 PM, attakid101 said:

That makes sense. I gotta saythough, I’m surprised it’s gone as high as it has. There’s a cart only copy on eBay right now going for way more than it has a right to...

 https://www.ebay.com/itm/The-Mask-Super-Nintendo-Entertainment-System-SNES-OEM-Cartridge-Only/303949218092?epid=214710404&hash=item46c4c9012c:g:AbwAAOSw7QdgbKg8

Little update here. I checked JJ Games website and saw that they had a copy of The Mask for way less than the current market price. It arrived the other day. Feel like I lucked out.

[cma2032 | 7]

22 hours ago, DefaultGen said:

They are interchangeable but I also think people overestimate how easy it is to get exactly correct, mint replacements for their jewel cases and DVDs. Not sure what the current replacement jewel case situation is like, but AFAIK zero currently-manufactured jewel cases are to the spec of the 90s jewel cases. All are much cheaper. When I had to replace a few, I bought some NOS 90s Sony music CDs to get equal quality cases. With DVD cases there are dozens of minor variations few people have a great handle on. I think grading modern CIB disc crap is silly, but just in terms of getting nice cases for your collection, it's a bit of a pain. It's also possible Wata just won't care about one million percent correct DVD and jewel cases like they don't really care about baggies or inserts that much.

I feel like any thrift store is going to have plenty of cases you can choose from when it comes to CDs. Finding a mint one might be slightly harder, but not like finding a good Saturn case or something

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

Bought a 3- screw urban champion w/ manual for 16.99 shipped. 
 

Put the manny on a .99 auction and it sold for 20$

Wtf?

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

On 4/12/2021 at 9:34 PM, DefaultGen said:

 It's also possible Wata just won't care about one million percent correct DVD and jewel cases like they don't really care about baggies or inserts that much.

ULTRA RARE 0.9 g/cm^3 density KEEP CASE print run. Much rarer than the subsequent .885g/cm^3 density runs.

[tidaldreams | 654]

Parasite Eve for $193: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Parasite-Eve-PlayStation-1-1998-PS1-Great-Condition-With-Collector-s-CD-/133717334627?_trksid=p2349526.m4383.l10137.c10&nordt=true&rt=nc&orig_cvip=true

Maybe a week ago this was worth about $80.

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

I catch myself randomly laughing at all the bubble bust threads on NA after 2014.

[Californication | 1,477]

30 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

I catch myself randomly laughing at all the bubble bust threads on NA after 2014.

Why? There was a sharp downward trend until the pandemic hit.

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

51 minutes ago, Californication said:

Why? There was a sharp downward trend until the pandemic hit.

Just that there was a thread almost daily in 2014-2016 about how/when the floor was gonna fall out and this wouldn't be maintained. I know that the unforeseen circumstances of the pandemic have created this secondary push, but regardless it still makes me laugh seeing current sales and thinking back on some of those threads that were confident that we'd see prices fall back down to pre-2010 levels in the near future.

Although I wasn't paying all that much attention to prices in 2017-2020, I'm not sure I'd describe that as a sharp downward trend... maybe a plateau or slight correction. From the charts over at GVN it looks like things were on a slight rise in 2019 even before the pandemic had landed.

 

[Californication | 1,477]

39 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

Just that there was a thread almost daily in 2014-2016 about how/when the floor was gonna fall out and this wouldn't be maintained. I know that the unforeseen circumstances of the pandemic have created this secondary push, but regardless it still makes me laugh seeing current sales and thinking back on some of those threads that were confident that we'd see prices fall back down to pre-2010 levels in the near future.

Although I wasn't paying all that much attention to prices in 2017-2020, I'm not sure I'd describe that as a sharp downward trend... maybe a plateau or slight correction. From the charts over at GVN it looks like things were on a slight rise in 2019 even before the pandemic had landed.

 

The pandemic has reshaped national and global markets. There are new booming industries and industries that have suddenly failed. Video games just happen to be an industry that got lucky. 

So I don't underatand how you think those predictions were wrong unless you expected a black swan event that would give a resurgence to retro gaming. 

Game Value Now and Price Charting data is inaccurate. I watched it because I've been heavily collecting since 2016.

Games like team buddies and In the Hunt (jewel) were down to like $90-$120 down from $200-$300. Genesis had a kick when the analogue console came out, but that was starting to fade. Gamecube had the strongest growth presence and they were mostly selling between $20-$40 with a couple $100+ games. PS3 games were like $2-$3. Those are just the examples that I initially think of, but there are more.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Californication

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

24 minutes ago, Californication said:

So I don't underatand how you think those predictions were wrong unless you expected a black swan event that would give a resurgence to retro gaming. 

 

 

I thought the predictions were extremely hopeful back then and were often created by people with that mindset - that they'd be able to buy games for dirt cheap again in the near future. Honestly, my comment wasn't even so much that those predictions were right or wrong just that we've come so far from those prices regardless of cause which I find humorous. I agree that things definitely simmered down after 2016 and likely would have remained somewhat flat if Covid never happened. I also know that no one could have predicted where were at today even in 2019 including myself.

 

 

[Californication | 1,477]

40 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

 

I thought the predictions were extremely hopeful back then and were often created by people with that mindset - that they'd be able to buy games for dirt cheap again in the near future. Honestly, my comment wasn't even so much that those predictions were right or wrong just that we've come so far from those prices regardless of cause which I find humorous. I agree that things definitely simmered down after 2016 and likely would have remained somewhat flat if Covid never happened. I also know that no one could have predicted where were at today even in 2019 including myself.

 

 

Oh okay, when you put it like that it is kind of funny. Like the irony of trying to predict something against the random nature of life which will behave how it wants to behave. 

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

1 hour ago, Californication said:

Oh okay, when you put it like that it is kind of funny. Like the irony of trying to predict something against the random nature of life which will behave how it wants to behave. 

Yeah... just kinda laughing at the situation w.r.t the insane prices rather than the people who made those predictions. I can't even believe the prices and they're happening right in front of us.

[Tanooki | 4,932]

He is right though, there was a sharp decline starting in parts of 2018 into 2019 where it was easy to notice.  Stuff had finally hit this mythical cap us wanted to see years earlier happen.  Prices just stopped increasing except on some legit true honest rares, not all the puffed up majority bullshit on stuff.  You had plateaus on some stuff, others just started going downward at a clip, and then some swung after flatness for a time.  I had been observing the Gameboy (all) and DS markets since I was buying in that, casually watching a few other Nintendo based things too.  I went crazy time in 2019 on the Virtual Boy, it's an anomaly where it didn't dive, it just got uglier in the back half of 2019 and the virus really made the idiocy go into overdrive.  It is fair to say there though, with under a million units, and less games, it makes more sense those prices would be bad, not on the 500k-1M+ stuff we saw with questionable value.

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

17 hours ago, Tanooki said:

He is right though, there was a sharp decline starting in parts of 2018 into 2019 where it was easy to notice.  Stuff had finally hit this mythical cap us wanted to see years earlier happen.  Prices just stopped increasing except on some legit true honest rares, not all the puffed up majority bullshit on stuff.  You had plateaus on some stuff, others just started going downward at a clip, and then some swung after flatness for a time.  I had been observing the Gameboy (all) and DS markets since I was buying in that, casually watching a few other Nintendo based things too.  I went crazy time in 2019 on the Virtual Boy, it's an anomaly where it didn't dive, it just got uglier in the back half of 2019 and the virus really made the idiocy go into overdrive.  It is fair to say there though, with under a million units, and less games, it makes more sense those prices would be bad, not on the 500k-1M+ stuff we saw with questionable value.

I remember a lot of solid titles dropping after the mini console releases too. 

[Tanooki | 4,932]

5 hours ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

I remember a lot of solid titles dropping after the mini console releases too. 

They did, though eventually some did or didn't rebound, kind of depending on the cult mentality or insanity of the interest.  Like Earthbound, it got nailed when it came out on WiiU initially, then again elsewhere, but it crept up again.  Others didn't, so it does have an impact, just not across the board.

[Drogba_Legend | 1]

On 4/17/2021 at 9:59 PM, tidaldreams said:

Parasite Eve for $193: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Parasite-Eve-PlayStation-1-1998-PS1-Great-Condition-With-Collector-s-CD-/133717334627?_trksid=p2349526.m4383.l10137.c10&nordt=true&rt=nc&orig_cvip=true

Maybe a week ago this was worth about $80.

Prices for PS1 games have gone into the stratosphere, same with Vita. They were already pretty ridiculous, but Sony announcing they were going to close the PS3/Vita stores gave everyone a serious case of FOMO. 

[Tanooki | 4,932]

That's insane...I've only got around a dozen PS1 games left, yet what I have, some of them would probably pull in a 4 figure surprise, easily.  Bomberman Fantasy Race and World, Castlevania SOTN, Diablo, Doom(black label), Final Doom, Lunar SSSC complete,  that Parasite Eve in the post above, Quake II, R4, and Warcraft II.  Clearly the racer and Q2 being the low bar there.  Kind of tempting really, already know my PSone+LCD(and LCD still has the box and all packing materials) are in low use/excellent shape.

[tidaldreams | 654]

22 hours ago, Drogba_Legend said:

Prices for PS1 games have gone into the stratosphere, same with Vita. They were already pretty ridiculous, but Sony announcing they were going to close the PS3/Vita stores gave everyone a serious case of FOMO. 

You're very right. Here's another one that has seemingly doubled overnight: https://www.ebay.com/itm/184759106334?nma=true&si=ykKPBO%2FfJwsEa2FemlfjS4Lq5zs%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

[cma2032 | 7]

I'm not normally in the business of speculating but for any PS3 collectors noticing the weird price jumps on random things, I noticed sealed copies of Yaiba: Ninja Gaiden Z can be had for ~$12 on Ebay. I think this one could see some jumps because:

• It's the obscure black sheep of a well-known & beloved series 
• Unlikely to see a re-release as it sold poorly & had mixed reviews (so lower number of copies)
• Very stylish & unique cel-shaded graphics
• Sigma trilogy re-release incoming on Switch will boost the profile of the series
• It was released on PS3/360 about a year after the PS4 was already out

Edited May 19, 2021 by cma2032