The Price Thread (predictions, hot prices, cold prices, anomalies, etc)

[DefaultGen | 5,401]

24 minutes ago, 16BitBricks said:

Maybe this has another thread, but why haven’t prototype and sample carts prices increased as much? Even uncommon sealed games and graded cibs go for more than their protos! I assume they’ll be in demand someday. I just find it odd since most of the high end new collectors are all about first appearances and key titles, etc. I’m sure if a Zelda or Mario proto came up for auction all the proto prices would explode.

It's harder to flip because it's an even more niche market than sealed games. The sales pitch is "This unopened copy of Super Mario 3 is one of the nicest ones you can get and just look at how much Action Comics 1 and Wayne Gretzky rookies sell for!" not "This butchered and sharpie'd Kid Icarus cart was a sample cartridge or like a development cartridge used in the games development, but not like, the actual development because the game had already been out for over a year overseas, really just the localization, or maybe it was sent to some guy at Game Pro, really it's a piece of history if you think about it"

But hey, buying good stuff that people currently aren't flipping for $1000s rather than thinking the people spending $4000 for a sealed Monopoly are spending their money the best possible way is a good strategy.

Edited April 6, 2021 by DefaultGen

[16BitBricks | 59]

1 hour ago, DefaultGen said:

It's harder to flip because it's an even more niche market than sealed games. The sales pitch is "This unopened copy of Super Mario 3 is one of the nicest ones you can get and just look at how much Action Comics 1 and Wayne Gretzky rookies sell for!" not "This butchered and sharpie'd Kid Icarus cart was a sample cartridge or like a development cartridge used in the games development, but not like, the actual development because the game had already been out for over a year overseas, really just the localization, or maybe it was sent to some guy at Game Pro, really it's a piece of history if you think about it"

But hey, buying good stuff that people currently aren't flipping for $1000s rather than thinking the people spending $4000 for a sealed Monopoly are spending their money the best possible way is a good strategy.

True, that’s a good point It’s more about getting a high grade and a good flip than actual significance. I think for certain  game titles a proto/sample is more significant (for example a certain Lucasarts title that didn’t get Japanese release, lol). I agree on your last point though. I’d rather have a sample cart over a sealed copy if monetary values are equal. Probably not the best mindset for “growth”. No matter how bad I want a sealed copy, remembering seeing a game in a bargain bin for $10 as a kid, or $300 a few years ago won’t let my finger pull the trigger at $3k, even though I know it’s not getting any cheaper.

[DefaultGen | 5,401]

40 minutes ago, 16BitBricks said:

No matter how bad I want a sealed copy, remembering seeing a game in a bargain bin for $10 as a kid, or $300 a few years ago won’t let my finger pull the trigger at $3k, even though I know it’s not getting any cheaper.

Yep, I can't get over price memory of stuff of stuff that has literally gone 50x. It makes everything else look like a better deal by comparison which has led to me buying the same stuff I used to think is too pricey for those same prices. Someone spent $90k on Pokemon Crystal, a game whose only significance even within Pokemon is that it sold many millions rather than tens of millions. It's the third bestselling GBC game, super rare, not the most and second most common GBC games like Gold and Silver! Maybe $500 for that Blockbuster New Leaf cart isn't such a horrible price after all.

Edited April 6, 2021 by DefaultGen

[SilverspoonGaming | 332]

On 4/4/2021 at 7:17 PM, ThePhleo said:

I’m predicting a hard turn into PS1/PS2, especially series like Resident Evil, Castlevania, Final Fantasy, Crash, Spyro, Metal Gear, Ratchet and Clank, Gran Turismo, Tekken, Grand Theft Auto, God of War, and Devil May Cry.

Theyre largely untapped libraries with huge amounts of “first” titles.

Nintendo was king for a while, but Sony has been on top since 1995. It’s time to let them shine.

I dont think Crash or Spyro will shoot up dramatically because of their remakes being so successful.  I really wish they would tho cuz I have an abundance of them to get rid of.

[Jono1874 | 144]

4 hours ago, 16BitBricks said:

Maybe this has another thread, but why haven’t prototype and sample carts prices increased as much? Even uncommon sealed games and graded cibs go for more than their protos! I assume they’ll be in demand someday. I just find it odd since most of the high end new collectors are all about first appearances and key titles, etc. I’m sure if a Zelda or Mario proto came up for auction all the proto prices would explode.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's for the same reason they don't care about stuff like Stadium Events and Little Samson. They don't care about video games in the same way some other collectors do.  Eventually they'll catch on, but who knows if they'll actually bite.

[ThePhleo | 2,184]

12 minutes ago, Jono1874 said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's for the same reason they don't care about stuff like Stadium Events and Little Samson. They don't care about video games in the same way some other collectors do.  Eventually they'll catch on, but who knows if they'll actually bite.

Just throwing this out there:

This guy is not being sarcastic at all. I offered my Stadium Events for 24 hours for Sale or TRADE on the High End game collectors forum on Facebook a few days ago and I didn’t get any really serious offers, well except for one that maybe stands out.

One guy asked me to go through his Instagram profile to make a trade and the only thing I would have traded away for was met with a soft no....something that only an absolute fool would have accepted as trade just two years ago.

I offered to trade my CIB Stadium Events for a sealed HT Super Mario Bros., and that was a no.

[Sir Centroid | 79]

Kind of difficult to make a prediction when everything it actively exploding, but sure, I've got a few. Crimson Tears on the PS2 is going to absolutely erupt in price sometime between now and the next 12 months. Probably to around $250-$300 would be my guess. Ninja Shadow of Darkness on the Ps1 is an oddly popular title as of recently, no clue on where that'll end up, maybe 80-ish in the next year. Then there's Ed Edd n Eddy on the Xbox, I have no god damn clue what going on their, but copies of that game get scooped up pretty quickly.

With GBC also actively going insane, I can see a couple GBC titles hitting $1k+ for CIB copies. Return of the Ninja absolutely being one of them, probably Bomberman Quest as well, maybe even some more obscure titles like Kelly Club, Puzzle Master and Laura will start hitting the 100s of dollars for CIB when people realize what a pain in the ass it is to track any of them down. Laura will probably be the GBC's version of a kids game gone stupid price-wise.

[cma2032 | 7]

18 hours ago, SilverspoonGaming said:

I dont think Crash or Spyro will shoot up dramatically because of their remakes being so successful.  I really wish they would tho cuz I have an abundance of them to get rid of.

I think it would have happened by now, because even the remake prices have gone dramatically down. Spyro was one of my favorites games growing up, and the remake practically made it obsolete. There's no real reason to play the original anymore other than nostalgia, and it was never a rare game.

[AdamW | 713]

19 hours ago, Jono1874 said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's for the same reason they don't care about stuff like Stadium Events and Little Samson. They don't care about video games in the same way some other collectors do.  Eventually they'll catch on, but who knows if they'll actually bite.

I think this is true, but the way you phrased it sounds a bit judgmental (not sure if that was intentional). It's definitely the case that this market cares in a different way: specifically they care about significance and not absolute rarity of the game. I don't see that either obviously makes more sense than the other, though.

Stadium Events' status, AIUI, is basically what it is because a) getting an NES full set became a Thing in game collecting circles and b) there are really, really few copies of it. So, that's real, but...does it make that much more sense than going nuts for Mario? It's not a particularly great game, by all accounts, and it's rare under the name Stadium Events because it got renamed and re-released, and you can buy the re-released game for a dollar. It has zero cultural significance besides being a rare NES game. It's not the foundation of a thirty year cross-media juggernaut. Very few kids have fond memories of hours spent playing...Stadium Events.

So yeah, it's true that there are two different mindsets about what to value here. But I don't really see that valuing Stadium Events higher than Mario means you "care about video games" more. It means you care about "collecting video games" in the way that people who want NES full sets care about collecting video games, but does it mean more than that?

Edited April 7, 2021 by AdamW

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

I've said it before, but I think good copies of common 64 games will only continue to rise. I can see first print games in good shape like Mario 64, Mario Kart 64, Zelda: OoT all going for $500+ (at least Canadian) in the coming year.

I can't believe that Hagane cart sale. I also didn't think it would break 1K cart only, especially after settling for a while from a short hot streak. I sold a CIB copy for about the same amount only a few years ago.

Unless there is a huge crash in the market, I think prices for CIB sought-after games still have a way to go, especially the cardboard.

This is becoming interesting territory as these games are bringing in life changing amounts. With a few sealed/graded games and a nice CIB collection you could probably buy some property, a house, a car, etc.

[DefaultGen | 5,401]

3 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

This is becoming interesting territory as these games are bringing in life changing amounts. With a few sealed/graded games and a nice CIB collection you could probably buy some property, a house, a car, etc.

But then you wouldn't have all those cool game tapes anymore

[AdamW | 713]

1 hour ago, Sir Centroid said:

Kind of difficult to make a prediction when everything it actively exploding, but sure, I've got a few. Crimson Tears on the PS2 is going to absolutely erupt in price sometime between now and the next 12 months. Probably to around $250-$300 would be my guess. Ninja Shadow of Darkness on the Ps1 is an oddly popular title as of recently, no clue on where that'll end up, maybe 80-ish in the next year. Then there's Ed Edd n Eddy on the Xbox, I have no god damn clue what going on their, but copies of that game get scooped up pretty quickly.

With GBC also actively going insane, I can see a couple GBC titles hitting $1k+ for CIB copies. Return of the Ninja absolutely being one of them, probably Bomberman Quest as well, maybe even some more obscure titles like Kelly Club, Puzzle Master and Laura will start hitting the 100s of dollars for CIB when people realize what a pain in the ass it is to track any of them down. Laura will probably be the GBC's version of a kids game gone stupid price-wise.

I've already logged two Pokemon Crystal CIB sales over $1000:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Pokemon-Crystal-Version-Game-Boy-Color-Nintendo-Authentic-CIB-Complete-Inserts-/254905137117?nordt=true&rt=nc&orig_cvip=true ($1999)
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Pokemon-Crystal-Version-Game-Boy-Color-Nintendo-Authentic-CIB-Complete-Inserts-/264799204544?nordt=true&rt=nc&orig_cvip=true ($2250)

(yes, I know the descriptions and even photos look similar, but they are definitely not the same copy; they're actually different prints, one is the y-fold, one is the double-ended).

This being eBay you can't be sure either sale actually completed, but at least neither is shown as relisted by eBay. (I also have one recorded sale of CIB Emerald, a GBA game, at $1400).

Edited April 7, 2021 by AdamW

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

6 minutes ago, DefaultGen said:

But then you wouldn't have all those cool game tapes anymore

Haha... as someone who's on the selling side more than the buying side these days, it's still hard to let go of some of these tapes. It also really sucks selling a game and then making a big purchase on insurance or a car payment etc... you realize you essentially just traded a really nice CIB to fill your oil tank or something.

Also, it's tough to sell in such a volatile market. I'd hate to sell a game only to have it jump by a few hundred or thousand dollars within a few months/year.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Andy_Bogomil

[DK | 258]

I sold 75% of my CIB games once the pandemic happened and prices were going nuts. I got great prices, but I would have gotten even more had I waited.

I kept some of my better pieces and I'm glad I did.

Good cardboard and paper for Nes/Snes/N64 isn't going down any time soon...if ever. If I'm an old man and a mint first print CIB NES Zelda is 100k I don't think I'd be shocked.

I also think an even further rise in rare PS2 and common/popular sealed PS2 is about to boom. That was the first non-cartridge system I had.

[LutherDestroysTheGond | 690]

I consciously planned to sell and sold a bunch of expensive loose NES/SNES/GBC carts right after this 3rd stimulus check came out.  Every cart I sold had dipped in value for 3-4 years before COVID hit (or at best stayed flat).  I even parted out some loose carts from CIBs I own because I expect the carts to either dip or stay flat once the COVID/stimulus phase is over.  The cardboard/paper of CIBs I don't think are likely to dip but who really knows. 

A lot of the games I sold went for 50-100% more than they did 2 weeks prior to me selling.  No brainer.  I toyed with selling off the whole collection but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger.

I know, now I look like a dirty speculator.  The carts I sold will greatly help fund our bathroom and kitchen renovations and I have flash carts until I can replace them.  I'm even looking at some PS1 and more SNES titles to sell soon to just kick it in overdrive. 

All of my Pokemon stuff except for my childhood copies will be sold soon.  Trying to beat Sapphire and Ruby quickly to get Latios/Latias and sell those games plus my Nintendo Power Eon Ticket.  All are stupid expensive.  Already sold off my Pokemom cards and cleaned up selling those as well.

Edited April 8, 2021 by LutherDestroysTheGond

[yZoneFox | 18]

On 4/6/2021 at 12:28 PM, SilverspoonGaming said:

I dont think Crash or Spyro will shoot up dramatically because of their remakes being so successful.  I really wish they would tho cuz I have an abundance of them to get rid of.

Klonoa crashed hard when the Wii-make was announced then subsequently released. The PS1 version shot back up again afterwards--even before 2020 hit.

This same sentiment was passed around for all those VC titles too. Oh, Earthbound will plummet because the title has a legitimate vendor for a ROM now. The same was said for Suikoden II when it hit PSN. There's a dip then a climb. People want the actual physical goods.

What's a "shoot up dramatically" value, cuz? I mean, Nintendo printed tons of Mario 1, 2, and 3, yet they go for $10-$20. That's pretty good return for games that people were using as frisbees in Funco because they were 99c. PS1 has black labels, variants, GH, lenticular cards, etc.. It's a new scene, but the same old scene.

[Sir Centroid | 79]

14 hours ago, AdamW said:

I've already logged two Pokemon Crystal CIB sales over $1000:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Pokemon-Crystal-Version-Game-Boy-Color-Nintendo-Authentic-CIB-Complete-Inserts-/254905137117?nordt=true&rt=nc&orig_cvip=true ($1999)
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Pokemon-Crystal-Version-Game-Boy-Color-Nintendo-Authentic-CIB-Complete-Inserts-/264799204544?nordt=true&rt=nc&orig_cvip=true ($2250)

(yes, I know the descriptions and even photos look similar, but they are definitely not the same copy; they're actually different prints, one is the y-fold, one is the double-ended).

This being eBay you can't be sure either sale actually completed, but at least neither is shown as relisted by eBay. (I also have one recorded sale of CIB Emerald, a GBA game, at $1400).

Yeah, I'm still baffled by how anyone could think spending $1k+ on ANY pokemon game is a good idea. Sealed? I could understand to an extent, but CIB? Hell no! You would have to be crazy. The GBC in general has seen a huge boom in activity too though. I'm seeing so many games break $100+ that I hadn't foreseen happening for at least another couple years, especially with how often copies of said games show up in a month. Then there are other games that sit with anywhere between 0-6 copies between both ebay and amazon almost year round, and many of said games are sitting at around the $5-$15 mark. Crazy world!

[jonebone | 1,307]

On 4/4/2021 at 2:47 PM, attakid101 said:

The Mask on SNES seems to be on the rise recently. I know it’s a somewhat uncommon game but I expect that the recent spike won’t last. A similar jump happened with Casper on SNES not too long ago, and that game has since stabilized.

Funny you mentioned this example, someone messaged me last week trying to buy mine.  When a uncommon title droughts it price doesn't usually return back to normal.  Look at some similar NES exmaples like Cliffhanger, that one is way up over the last year.  When the demand gets so high it takes a lot of supply to bring it down... and if the title was already uncommon then the supply usually doesn't catch up.

On 4/5/2021 at 11:13 PM, chuppy44 said:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Misadventures-of-Tron-Bonne-Sony-PlayStation-1-2000-Complete-in-box-/274705763275?_trksid=p2349526.m4383.l44720.c10&nordt=true&rt=nc&orig_cvip=true

The first 4-figure PS1 game? (which was still a $300 game a month or 2 ago)

Yeah, I noticed this too.  Bought a sealed VGA 90 a couple weeks ago just thinking it was a good deal... then when I noticed the CIB price had gone from $400 to nearly $1k I was thrilled with the pickup.

[Hammerfestus | 3,833]

Damn man.  It seems my Klonoa is staying disc only forever.  Should’ve picked up the last decent IB I saw for $50 years ago.  
Also, I think Starblade Alpha has to jump up at some point it’s sat pretty much within like $20 of where it is now for a lot of years.  As long as I can recall at least.  I’d suspect dating back to the PS1 price crash.

[tbone3969 | 304]

59 minutes ago, Hammerfestus said:

Damn man.  It seems my Klonoa is staying disc only forever.  Should’ve picked up the last decent IB I saw for $50 years ago.  
Also, I think Starblade Alpha has to jump up at some point it’s sat pretty much within like $20 of where it is now for a lot of years.  As long as I can recall at least.  I’d suspect dating back to the PS1 price crash.

Starblade Alpha.....  That one sounds familiar.  Oh yeah I have it on the Sega CD.  Pretty low for that system still as well.

[Hammerfestus | 3,833]

3 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

Starblade Alpha.....  That one sounds familiar.  Oh yeah I have it on the Sega CD.  Pretty low for that system still as well.

I mean it’s about $100 but it’s been that forever.  Which is strange considering it’s long been considered one of the rarest long boxes.  And it’s also more enjoyable than a Psychic Detective or something...sort of.

[tbone3969 | 304]

10 minutes ago, Hammerfestus said:

I mean it’s about $100 but it’s been that forever.  Which is strange considering it’s long been considered one of the rarest long boxes.  And it’s also more enjoyable than a Psychic Detective or something...sort of.

Checking eBay sold prices suggests it has started to surge for sure.  One just sold at auction on April 1st for $200 and a buy it now on March 1st for $250.  The only longbox version currently for sale is listed at $550.  Lets see if it ever sells and at what price as it has the best offer option.

Edited April 8, 2021 by tbone3969

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

There is a very nice copy of Hook for SNES on eBay with 5 days left and it's at $350. Guess it goes to show you the power of condition as there are a few other BIN listings around for about 1/3 of the price in worse condition but still decent.  I think there are a few sought after SNES games that look overpriced right now but will probably look like good buys in a few months time.

I think Super Mario World CIB, or at least the box, will be going for $1k+ sooner rather than later, if it hasn't already. Really uncommon and a staple in the franchise for a very collectible system. I regret flipping one for a few hundred a couple years ago when I knew it was worth more.

Few weird 64 titles I could see shooting up as well like Kirby. Common game but not that many complete listings online. Prices are very volatile with so few listings.

 

Edited April 8, 2021 by Andy_Bogomil

[tbone3969 | 304]

25 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

There is a very nice copy of Hook for SNES on eBay with 5 days left and it's at $350. Guess it goes to show you the power of condition as there are a few other BIN listings around for about 1/3 of the price in worse condition but still decent.  I think there are a few sought after SNES games that look overpriced right now but will probably look like good buys in a few months time.

I think Super Mario World CIB, or at least the box, will be going for $1k+ sooner rather than later, if it hasn't already. Really uncommon and a staple in the franchise for a very collectible system. I regret flipping one for a few hundred a couple years ago when I knew it was worth more.

Few weird 64 titles I could see shooting up as well like Kirby. Common game but not that many complete listings online. Prices are very volatile with so few listings.

 

Super Mario World CIB is already at 1k.  It's like we can't even keep up as we set outrageous prices here.

Edited April 8, 2021 by tbone3969

[jonebone | 1,307]

3 hours ago, Hammerfestus said:

I mean it’s about $100 but it’s been that forever.  Which is strange considering it’s long been considered one of the rarest long boxes.  And it’s also more enjoyable than a Psychic Detective or something...sort of.

A starblade alpha sold for $700 in January, lol.  The days of $100 are behind you, though agreed, it was in the $150 range a long time.  I sold a VGA 85+ sealed copy a few months back when I upgraded to 90+ and sealed price was pretty stagnant around $1k at the time too.  I bet that is no longer the case.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/124539338836

And yes, Super Mario World in VG or better shape is $1k+ already.