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phart010
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Member · Posted
2 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

Yes, but the goal with long term investing is not to immediately double your money. The goal is to steadily grow it. A return of 5-8% per year would be considered quite good. In fact, to double your money in 10 years, you need a growth rate of 7.2% per year.

So if it takes Bitcoin ten years to double from where it is now, that would still be an excellent investment.

 

I agree with you annual returns and long term growth. However, when I think of returns, I’m thinking of dividend payouts and reinvesting to get more shares. Any gains from increasing share prices are just a bonus.

Since most cryptocurrencies don’t pay a dividend, I think of it as more of a speculative investment than a long term growth investment. That said, I do plan to hold my Bitcoin for the long term.

I was just commenting that if you are just getting into Bitcoin today, with hopes of short term gains, you might look at something that just needs to move from $200 to $400 or something that needs to move from $2000 to $4000 instead of something that needs to go from $50k to $100k.

By the way, this is all just for educational purposes, I am not giving financial advice 🥸

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56 minutes ago, phart010 said:

At current prices, Bitcoin needs to get to 100k for you to 2x your money.

If you think there’s still more upside, maybe better to buy litecoin or ethereum at this point.

This is why I'm glad that I got in when I did at $14k. It would be discouraging for me to start now when it takes $550+ just to buy 0.01 bitcoin.

Edited by Bearcat-Doug
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59 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

I'm in for the long haul. It's just like the stock market for me now. A dip or crash just means I buy more. And if it all goes to hell, I hold for the next 20-30 years.

I try to add whatever extra that I can and hopefully it really pays off in the next 10+ years. 

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19 minutes ago, phart010 said:

I agree with you annual returns and long term growth. However, when I think of returns, I’m thinking of dividend payouts and reinvesting to get more shares. Any gains from increasing share prices are just a bonus.

Since most cryptocurrencies don’t pay a dividend, I think of it as more of a speculative investment than a long term growth investment. That said, I do plan to hold my Bitcoin for the long term.

I was just commenting that if you are just getting into Bitcoin today, with hopes of short term gains, you might look at something that just needs to move from $200 to $400 or something that needs to move from $2000 to $4000 instead of something that needs to go from $50k to $100k.

By the way, this is all just for educational purposes, I am not giving financial advice 🥸

Personally, I don't put a ton of weight into dividends when I choose where I invest long term, although obviously they can be great. My biggest wins have actually been stocks that don't pay a dividend, like Amazon and Netflix.

Regarding crypto, I generally agree. For anyone just looking for short term growth, I actually think Bitcoin Cash is a good option. It spiked at $2800 a couple years ago and is now down to around $700. It seems to be following Bitcoin closely and is steadily rising with a known prior peak.

A lot of people seem really excited by Ethereum's potential, although I see that one as a long hold. In the end, I think there will probably be room for a few major cryptos to emerge.

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9 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

Personally, I don't put a ton of weight into dividends when I choose where I invest long term, although obviously they can be great. My biggest wins have actually been stocks that don't pay a dividend, like Amazon and Netflix.

Regarding crypto, I generally agree. For anyone just looking for short term growth, I actually think Bitcoin Cash is a good option. It spiked at $2800 a couple years ago and is now down to around $700. It seems to be following Bitcoin closely and is steadily rising with a known prior peak.

A lot of people seem really excited by Ethereum's potential, although I see that one as a long hold. In the end, I think there will probably be room for a few major cryptos to emerge.

Ethereum is interesting, although the lack of a cap worries me. The option is on the table to add a limit in the future, but I'm not sure that I would want to put a lot of money into something with an infinite supply.

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1 hour ago, RH said:

It's hard for me to believe I once held 350 BTC.

Do you have any now? I seriously feel wealthy just having more than one. I saw a chart yesterday that showed wallets with more than 1 bitcoin were in the top 1.8% holders. This is why I try to tell people it's still early. People with 10+ coins are < 1% so it's not like a ton of people got in at the start and held onto them.

Edited by Bearcat-Doug
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Member · Posted
21 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

Do you have any now? I seriously feel wealthy just having more than one. I saw a chart yesterday that showed wallets with more than 1 bitcoin were in the top 1.8% holders. This is why I try to tell people it's still early. People with 10+ coins are < 1% so it's not like a ton of people got in at the start and held onto them.

Nah, around 2015 I had just had enough. I hadn't lost money in a bad trade or scam. I got in around 2010, pretty active in various altcoin communities and development and by 2015, I was done with the politics, scams and drama. I sold off all of my holdings in alts and kept 1 BTC. I sold it about a year later when it was around $8,500, IIRC.

My recollection is a bit hazy. You might have to push all of those dates ahead a year for the numbers to work out. I do recall that I started collecting in 2016. I used a lot o that money for house and family needs but kept about $5,000 to work toward my collecting goals.

Crypto was good to me. We were able to pay off our first house and I bought a bunch of Amazon/Target gift cards because, *cough* ...there were no costs to cashing out that way.

But, anyway, I'm done. If I stayed in and hoarded what I had, I'd be a multi-millionaire many times over, but I don't regret getting out. Money really isn't everything and I was quite obsessed and it was a crazy, emotional rollercoaster dealing and working in that scene.

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8 minutes ago, RH said:

Nah, around 2015 I had just had enough. I hadn't lost money in a bad trade or scam. I got in around 2010, pretty active in various altcoin communities and development and by 2015, I was done with the politics, scams and drama. I sold off all of my holdings in alts and kept 1 BTC. I sold it about a year later when it was around $8,500, IIRC.

My recollection is a bit hazy. You might have to push all of those dates ahead a year for the numbers to work out. I do recall that I started collecting in 2016. I used a lot o that money for house and family needs but kept about $5,000 to work toward my collecting goals.

Crypto was good to me. We were able to pay off our first house and I bought a bunch of Amazon/Target gift cards because, *cough* ...there were no costs to cashing out that way.

But, anyway, I'm done. If I stayed in and hoarded what I had, I'd be a multi-millionaire many times over, but I don't regret getting out. Money really isn't everything and I was quite obsessed and it was a crazy, emotional rollercoaster dealing and working in that scene.

I see stories like that often yet for some reason people seem to think everyone that was in before 2017 are all multimillionaires with hundreds of coins. I couldn't even afford a whole bitcoin at the current prices, but I'm still buying and HODLing. Bitcoin has been good to me and hopefully it will be worth enough eventually to where I can pay it forward and share the good fortune.

Edited by Bearcat-Doug
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1 hour ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

I see stories like that often yet for some reason people seem to think everyone that was in before 2017 are all multimillionaires with hundreds of coins. I couldn't even afford a whole bitcoin at the current prices, but I'm still buying and HODLing. Bitcoin has been good to me and hopefully it will be worth enough eventually to where I can pay it forward and share the good fortune.

I was in since 2013. At one point I had a decent amount from trading. Then lost a decent amount from trading. I’m still in, but not with as much as I used to have 🤕

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Just now, MiamiSlice said:

I was in since 2013. At one point I had a decent amount from trading. Then lost a decent amount from trading. I’m still in, but not with as much as I used to have 🤕

I'm happy that I got in when I did given that it was pretty dull for the three years before. If I got in after the 2017 crash, it wouldn't have made much of a difference. I didn't even know what a bitcoin was in 2017, so I can't beat myself up over not getting in earlier.

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51 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

Bitcoin hit another ATH today without much of a pullback. It's going to be interesting to see how high it can go before the buying support lets up.

Considering how many banks and hedge funds have exploratory groups set up for it, 100k seems realistic later this year. It's also possible that when the news cycle turns over, we'll see a lull and drop. I think some of the current hype is holdover from the Gamestop get-rich-quick fiasco. Additionally, it's probably somewhat reactionary to the massive inflation caused by multiple trillion dollar government bailouts. I'm still long though. I don't think the potential for turbulence will stop the rise to 100k in the next five years.

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Just now, DoctorEncore said:

Considering how many banks and hedge funds have exploratory groups set up for it, 100k seems realistic later this year. It's also possible that when the news cycle turns over, we'll see a lull and drop. I think some of the current hype is holdover from the Gamestop get-rich-quick fiasco. Additionally, it's probably somewhat reactionary to the massive inflation caused by multiple trillion dollar government bailouts. I'm still long though. I don't think the potential for turbulence will stop the rise to 100k in the next five years.

I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $100k this year. When institutional investors are putting in hundreds of millions of dollars in at a time, it might hit $100k by the end of summer. 

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Member · Posted
1 hour ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $100k this year. When institutional investors are putting in hundreds of millions of dollars in at a time, it might hit $100k by the end of summer. 

I know nothing about crypto, strictly a stocks guy.

Do you think this is in bubble territory now? It feels like a lot of people have moved over from GameStop to crypto for the next pump and dump. Where does the value come from? I don’t understand. At least with something like gold you can actually own the bar. What makes crypto valuable? I don’t get it.

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17 minutes ago, Shmup said:

I know nothing about crypto, strictly a stocks guy.

Do you think this is in bubble territory now? It feels like a lot of people have moved over from GameStop to crypto for the next pump and dump. Where does the value come from? I don’t understand. At least with something like gold you can actually own the bar. What makes crypto valuable? I don’t get it.

You do own the coin, it's just digital. The value is what the market decides it is, so it's basically like digital gold in that respect. Bitcoin also has use as a currency if you choose to spend it. I don't think it is in bubble territory. The large amounts of institutional money coming in are making the price go up, but they should help stabilize the value eventually. For example, Tesla buying $1.5 billion dollars worth is likely to be held as a hedge against inflation instead of being bought and sold frequently by day traders which would increase volatility. 

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Member · Posted
31 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

You do own the coin, it's just digital. The value is what the market decides it is, so it's basically like digital gold in that respect. Bitcoin also has use as a currency if you choose to spend it. I don't think it is in bubble territory. The large amounts of institutional money coming in are making the price go up, but they should help stabilize the value eventually. For example, Tesla buying $1.5 billion dollars worth is likely to be held as a hedge against inflation instead of being bought and sold frequently by day traders which would increase volatility. 

Thanks, makes a bit more sense now. Definitely not an investment for me but if you’re making money off it then you might as well keep holding it.

Are you worried about legislation? I can’t imagine governments letting fiat currency get replaced by Bitcoin. 

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1 minute ago, Shmup said:

Thanks, makes a bit more sense now. Definitely not an investment for me but if you’re making money off it then you might as well keep holding it.

Are you worried about legislation? I can’t imagine governments letting fiat currency get replaced by Bitcoin. 

Not really. I could see Bitcoin being used more widely for larger transactions, but I don't think the transaction fees and the approval times make it practical for daily use.

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51 minutes ago, Shmup said:

I know nothing about crypto, strictly a stocks guy.

Do you think this is in bubble territory now? It feels like a lot of people have moved over from GameStop to crypto for the next pump and dump. Where does the value come from? I don’t understand. At least with something like gold you can actually own the bar. What makes crypto valuable? I don’t get it.

It's worth reading up on Bitcoin since much of the logic for its value also applies to other forms of cryptocurrency which are gaining mainstream acceptance.  You can find a ton of info on the "official" site: https://bitcoin.org/en/faq.

A Bitcoin is actually more similar to gold than it is to a standard currency such as the US dollar. Some important points:

  1. Like gold, the supply of Bitcoin is limited so it suffers from scarcity and generally follows supply/demand economics.
  2. Like gold, it takes energy/time/effort to mine Bitcoin. The energy is the electricity required by computers/CPUs/GPUs to solve complex algorithms which produce the actual currency.
  3. Like gold, no single country or financial institution controls Bitcoin and therefore it is free to be exchanged at whatever rate the market demands. It is a decentralized currency that is only subject to regulation if your government chooses to regulate it.
  4. All transactions are recorded in a public ledger and the software is 100% open source.  Every single Bitcoin ever created and traded can be tracked through this ledger. This makes it both easier and harder to use for illicit purposes (there are ways to remain anonymous through its use, but they require complex planning).

Many businesses (including Tesla) accept Bitcoin as payment, so that alone gives it value. 1.5 Bitcoins = 1 Tesla Model S.

It's possible Bitcoin is approaching bubble territory, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have value. Remember, stock markets often have bubbles which burst, but over time they regain that value. If Bitcoin crashes back down, I still expect a steady gain with time. So I will ride out any sort of crash and buy more at the floor.

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Member · Posted
2 hours ago, Shmup said:

I know nothing about crypto, strictly a stocks guy.

Do you think this is in bubble territory now? It feels like a lot of people have moved over from GameStop to crypto for the next pump and dump. Where does the value come from? I don’t understand. At least with something like gold you can actually own the bar. What makes crypto valuable? I don’t get it.

The thesis behind Bitcoin was a comparison of gold versus fiat. It told of the qualities and shortcomings of gold and the same for fiat. Then it aimed to capture all of the positive qualities of gold but remove the burden of physical weight and transfers over physical distance. 
 

That said, there are shortcomings. At the end of the day, Bitcoin still has rules that get written by a team of developers. It’s set up in a way that aims to have code transparency to prevent malicious code. And the direction of the maintenance/development is guided by a team setup in a way that should follow the “Bitcoin constitution”

You can lose Bitcoin just as easily as you can lose the change in your pocket. But a difference is that someone will find your change, if you forget a bitcoin wallet password, the coins are lost forever.

I think it has utility in the long term (as long as governments allow it). My guess is that governments will come up with their own digital currencies and outlaw Bitcoin eventually, but right now they want to allow it to shine so they can keep taking notes.

Its definitely a bubble, one that keeps on popping. Although, every time it pops, it never deflated lower than its previous high. So it’s at $50k+ now, whenever it pops, I’m guessing it will fall back to $20k, likely won’t go lower than $15k.

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Member · Posted

Down $58k to $51k in about 24 hours.  You better be prepared to ride the waves if you want to invest in the speculative things.

We need some red days across the board for everyhing.  Greed is at an all time high everywhere, stocks, crypto, collectibles, etc.  Nothing goes up every day forever.  And things typically fall faster than the climb.  So when they climb straight up....

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16 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Down $58k to $51k in about 24 hours.  You better be prepared to ride the waves if you want to invest in the speculative things.

We need some red days across the board for everyhing.  Greed is at an all time high everywhere, stocks, crypto, collectibles, etc.  Nothing goes up every day forever.  And things typically fall faster than the climb.  So when they climb straight up....

Bitcoin has collapsed to prices that haven't been seen since last Wednesday. The same people posting rocket emojis and moon memes when the price went up $7k on Friday seem to be the first ones to think the sky is falling when it does the opposite. When you hit a new all time high every day for a week, some people will cash out. It's just the nature of things.

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