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I think the disconnect here is a lack of understanding about where demand is coming from in the "collecting" realm of old video games. Always this has been split between collectors and gamers, and while this is a continuum rather than a hard divide, nonetheless there are SIGNIFICANT differences that drive the demand between these two groups.

The speculators and new entrants from hobbies such as comic and card collecting seem to be under the impression that the driving force of market demand in video games is specifically in the COLLECTING side, placing emphasis on rarity and condition, obviously particularly in the sealed category. They also have transplanted this "key title" and "1st print" mentality, which was previously almost entirely absent from anything but the most niche video game collectors.

This makes sense thinking about their background and intentions for this hobby. However, truth is the collecting side of the hobby, whilst always the most interesting and important from a knowledge and preservation side of things has ALWAYS been a smaller and less demand driving side than the GAMING side of hobby.

The VAST majority of long time collectors began their journey as GAMERS first, either with a small stack of beat up games from their childhood, or the urge to replay and rebut those that they had lost. Over time, as people replayed what they had and sought to pad out their collections with more great experiences, the hobby NATURALLY evolved to a more collecting focus, with people going for the hidden gems, complete sets, condition upgrades, variants and etc.

As the hobby grew over a decade or so, the collecting side started to gain more and more traction as more and more gamers refined their interests and the collecting side became more well established and appealing, and so the prices of rarer games started to increase a lot. BUT the gaming demand was still JUST as important for driving the prices of games that were BOTH uncommon and fun.

Comic book collectors and speculators need to realise that SEALED collecting "key title" collecting and an obsession over "prints" is removed almost ENTIRELY from the NATURAL native demand for video games, which begins in the gamer/collector spectrum. You have lost the VAST majority of the "millions" of game collectors in the market, because their demand is coming from a VERY different place!

This is a warning that outsiders to the hobby don't seem to appreciate. Sealed collecting is and has been a TINY niche of the overall video game market, that gamers have never touched and never will. Even big time collectors, most of them will hold only a tiny percentage of their collections in sealed games. No one cares about "1st print" games... Games aren't even fucking PRINTED they're ASSEMBLED, FFS! 🤣

The games you call KEY, I call common! They are DANK! Comic book and baseball card collectors are the NEW DANK! The titles WE think of as "key" as gamers are the classics and the hidden gems. Proper video game collectors know the key titles are the titles that are actually hard to find, not a variant or a condition, but GAMES, shit...

I got Mario fucking 3. And I didn't pay a hundred and fifty fucking thousand dollars for it. I got it for Christmas when I was 8.

 

 

Anyway, OP, sell your shit for whatever you can make for it, and do it quick, and buy a fuggin house you can pass down to your kids or whatever. Long after all this nonsense dies down and a bunch of comic collectors and dentists have lost their shirts, I'll be sitting on my couch with a beer in one hand and a controller in my other with a stupid grin on my face. 

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9 hours ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

Man this is just not an conjecture based on evidence. The Switch and PS4 have had more physical support than possibly any console before them. The idea that all games will be digital is being blind to what is actually happening in the gaming world. To assume that would stop bc a disc drive when away is ludacris. It doesn't support the trend in the market that is MORE physical media not less.

Sony and Microsoft making digital only consoles are catering to their bottom line, not a trend in gamer's preferences. To suggest otherwise shows the disconnect from the current market. Which is probably the same thought people have who are paying 100k for a Mario game. 

Nintendo literally just sold an empty box and a fake FE cart for $50 for a $6 game on the VC that sold out instantly. Not only is physical media desirable, it's desirability is at an all time high. See LRG, SRG, iam8bit. 

 

I own a PS4 and haven't bought a single physical copy game for it. Every game I have lives in a cloud in my PS account. Its already begun. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Sell your physical media story to Netflix or the music industry.

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On 12/2/2020 at 11:49 PM, Gulag Joe said:

Some of these speculative replies are merely that- speculation. Are there cases of popular titles? Of course, but using that speculation as an end result to conclude its stupid for people to spend 6 figures on a certain title is arrogant. Many of you are under-speculating the amount of interest in video game collecting.

I think you are missing a major point that’s being mentioned repeatedly on this forum. Most people here can see games have been going up in value in the recent years (even prior to WATA), and no reason why it would stop going up this year or the next. 

Your conclusion that there are arrogant attitudes here for thinking people can spend 6 figures on a collectible is far from the truth. Most are not saying “spending 6 figures is stupid”. We are actually saying “it’s stupid to pay 6 figures on a graded game if there is a high chance you can get it raw and then grade it for 1/20 to 1/10 of that 6 figure price.”

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9 minutes ago, GPX said:

I think you are missing a major point that’s being mentioned repeatedly on this forum. Most people here can see games have been going up in value in the recent years (even prior to WATA), and no reason why it would stop going up this year or the next. 

Your conclusion that there are arrogant attitudes here for thinking people can spend 6 figures on a collectible is far from the truth. Most are not saying “spending 6 figures is stupid”. We are actually saying “it’s stupid to pay 6 figures on a graded game if there is a high chance you can get it raw and then grade it for 1/20 to 1/10 of that 6 figure price.”

This is where I disagree. Collectors and investors had this same thought 20 years ago when PSA and CGC came along. Hindsight is 20/20 and it turns out that high condition cards/comics, which were mostly collected and stored in top loaders or carefully kept in board bags- a small percentage end up being in mint and an even smaller percentage grade out in gem mint condition which is evidenced in today's publicly available population reports by those respective grading companies.

In regard to video games, this is where the speculating comes in as many video games did not get this same treatment as very few people collected games compared to comic books and cards. With that said, in my opinion, it is not practical to conclude that one has better chances of finding a game in the raw and having it grade out high.

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On 12/1/2020 at 6:13 PM, Gulag Joe said:

We are living in uncertain economic times right now with this pandemic. I was expecting a lot more of these sealed key games hitting the market than we've seen over the last 10 months, which leads me to believe there are in fact zero collections that have cases upon cases of factory sealed Contra.

(emphasis mine)

I'm not sure if I'm reading you correctly here but it seems like you think we are in the middle of a recession and you were expecting collectors to start cashing in because they need the money? Because while we are definitely living in uncertain economic times, this has not worked out to be a wide recession the way I was expecting. Some people are definitely suffering, having lost significant investments (e.g. especially anyone who was heavily invested in travel, restaurants, etc.) but others are doing fine or better than usual. You have people who are working from home, maintaining their usual paycheck, and having more disposable income to put towards stuff to fill their houses. There's uncertainty but it's uneven. There's enough people with funds to create the demand we are seeing. If anything I think what could cause prices to come down would be what you said (people find out this stuff isn't as rare as they thought) combined with people getting burned throwing too much money at stuff thinking they will make it back quickly and failing. 

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25 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

This is where I disagree. Collectors and investors had this same thought 20 years ago when PSA and CGC came along. Hindsight is 20/20 and it turns out that high condition cards/comics, which were mostly collected and stored in top loaders or carefully kept in board bags- a small percentage end up being in mint and an even smaller percentage grade out in gem mint condition which is evidenced in today's publicly available population reports by those respective grading companies.

In regard to video games, this is where the speculating comes in as many video games did not get this same treatment as very few people collected games compared to comic books and cards. With that said, in my opinion, it is not practical to conclude that one has better chances of finding a game in the raw and having it grade out high.

Let’s put up a hypothetical:

1. Pay $150,000 for an item you doubt you can ever find one again in that same condition.

or

2. Put up a bounty of $50,000 for a raw sealed item (must be similar print and condition to the above) and see if anyone is willing to sell. If yes, you got your intended item plus a whopping saving of $100,000!

Which is the more sensible path of obtaining collecting/investing/speculating enlightenment?

 

Edited by GPX
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6 minutes ago, MiamiSlice said:

(emphasis mine)

I'm not sure if I'm reading you correctly here but it seems like you think we are in the middle of a recession and you were expecting collectors to start cashing in because they need the money? Because while we are definitely living in uncertain economic times, this has not worked out to be a wide recession the way I was expecting. Some people are definitely suffering, having lost significant investments (e.g. especially anyone who was heavily invested in travel, restaurants, etc.) but others are doing fine or better than usual. You have people who are working from home, maintaining their usual paycheck, and having more disposable income to put towards stuff to fill their houses. There's uncertainty but it's uneven. There's enough people with funds to create the demand we are seeing. If anything I think what could cause prices to come down would be what you said (people find out this stuff isn't as rare as they thought) combined with people getting burned throwing too much money at stuff thinking they will make it back quickly and failing. 

I am saying factory sealed games being put up for sale has not increased significantly to "cash in". If anything, they've remained at the same rate prior to the pandemic. They're just selling for more money these days because new collectors/investors are entering the marketplace for a variety of reasons previously mentioned.

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21 minutes ago, GPX said:

Let’s put up a hypothetical:

1. Pay $150,000 for an item you doubt you can ever find one again in that same condition.

or

2. Put up a bounty of $50,000 for a raw sealed item (must be similar print and condition to the above) and see if anyone is willing to sell. If yes, you got your intended item plus a whopping saving of $100,000!

Which is the more sensible path of obtaining collecting/investing/speculating enlightenment?

 

People who are paying 150k for a video game certainly have enough money to pay someone to investigate your hypothetical avenue of obtaining a high grade raw copy for cheap. Only problem is, thats not happening and the hypothetical is simply that- hypothetical.

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4 hours ago, Gulag Joe said:

I own a PS4 and haven't bought a single physical copy game for it. Every game I have lives in a cloud in my PS account. Its already begun. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Sell your physical media story to Netflix or the music industry.

Anecdotal evidence vs data based conjecture. Google which one is more trustworthy 👌

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I feel like the point of this thread was never truly made clear?

OP are you saying that sealed games are rare and so they are worth lots of money?

If so, well, duh? I guess? But also why should any of us care?

I could be a millionaire, you could tell me that a Mario 3 was the literal first off the press, and was in pristine sealed condition, and that EVERY other of the 18 million copies they made were snapped out of existence... I STILL wouldn't give a shit, and certainly wouldn't be buying the SWILL that WATA, HA and all the other pumper/dumpers are selling either.

To be sure, many of us here like to buy and trade and sell games, but INVESTING in video games is NOT my hobby, and it is not the hobby of the vast majority of members on this particular site. We are gamers, we are collectors, we are restorers and modders and preservationists and archivists. We are buddies, rivals, frenemies and friends alike! But most of all we are drawn here for the shared LOVE of old games, the thrill of the chase and the delight these wonderful objects and experiences bring to our lives.

I have no doubt there are places out there that will willing eat up all this sealed hype bullshit, but you are swimming against the tide in this pool, friend.

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6 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

#SaveThisThread

Ten years from now, a factory sealed N64 Perfect Dark in NM condition says the majority of all future video game releases will be digital.

How physical games are being published in record numbers.

Also by asserting physical games are going to increase in value also asserts that the demand for physical games is at an all time high. Choose one captain.

 

 

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1 minute ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

How physical games are being published in record numbers.

Also by asserting physical games are going to increase in value also asserts that the demand for physical games is at an all time high. Choose one captain.

 

 

Turns out your assumption is already fake news.

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5 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

Did you not see my source link and screen shot negating your claim? I will hit you up in 10 years when that factory sealed N64 Perfect Dark is worth $10 Billion dollars!

Welcome to VGS. check out other threads than just the ones you create.

Switch currently has more published games than the 3DS did in it's entire life cycle. It's pushing Wii's total output which was arguably when physical media was at the height. 

Also games sold would be new games, including things on steam and mobile for $1 or less. That number without context is meaningless like much of your other arguments

 

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3 minutes ago, bowser said:

Yeah I never understood the question in the first post. What the heck is a "key title"? Are you saying a prestige collection need to have cases of sealed popular games in order to be worthy of the "prestige" tag?

The games that are selling for six figures are "key games". Did Atwood, Indiana, or any other  "pEdIgReE" collection contain cases of those games? The answer is either no, or not enough to impact the current realized prices as these prices are being driven up by more than just two bidders. Even if we do find fifty 9.8 left bros., which I personally believe is highly unlikely, it won't impact the achieved prices as the collecting market is growing rapidly by the day.

A WATA 7.5 Tetris CIB just recently sold at auction for $500 on ebay. We can argue over 6 figure factory sealed games all day, but the real alarming trend is graded CIBs, not even in decent condition, selling high. I don't see that trend continuing. I think the factory sealed craze is driving up everything else. 

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5 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

IDK anymore. It started as a simple question and then things went downhill immediately.

Well I think your questions have been answered to be fair. Yes, there are plenty of sealed games out there, probably more than most new comers to the hobby realise, but they are nonetheless currently attracting record high sales. No one here cares tho, because we are not speculators we are gamers/collectors.

If money is your main interest in old video games, there has never been a better time than now to sell. Sell your shit and make bank if you got it.

Finally, as physical media is phased out over the next few decades, the people who grew up with old Nintendo games will get older and eventually die out, leading to an eventual collapse of the retro game market in approximately 2050, just like what happened to Elvis memorabilia, Lionel trains and Hummel figurines. There will be a TINY niche market of hugely expensive games left trading hands amongst the super wealthy, but STILL no one around here will give a fuck.

Any more questions?

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2 minutes ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

Welcome to VGS. check out other threads than just the ones you create.

Switch currently has more published games than the 3DS did in it's entire life cycle. It's pushing Wii's total output which was arguably when physical media was at the height. 

Also games sold would be new games, including things on steam and mobile for $1 or less. That number without context is meaningless like much of your other arguments

 

That does not prove anything other than there's a small demand for physical copies for one particular console. Overall, as proven above, 83% of ALL video game sales are digital. And that was 2 years ago- before the announcement of PS5 having a digital console option.

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@Gulag Joe this is a list of the HIGHLIGHTS from Tim Atwood's sealed collection, JUST for NES for your information:

 

TITLE CASES TOTAL GAMES
1942 1 6
3D World Runner 1 6
Alfred Chicken 1 6
Balloon Fight 1 6
Barbie 1 6
Baseball 1 6
Baseball Stars 2 1 6
Best Of The Best Championship Karate 1 6
Battletoads & Double Dragon 2 12
Blaster Master 1 6
Blues Brothers 1 6
Bonk's Adventure 3 18
Bomberman 2 1 6
Breakthru 1 6
Bubble Bobble 1 6
Bubble Bobble 2 2 12
Bubble Bobble: Rainbow Island 2 12
Bucky O'Hare 1 6
Bugs Bunny Crazy Castle 1 6
Burai Fighter 2 12
Casino Kid II 2 12
Castelian 1 6
Castlevania 2 12
Castlevania II 1 6
Castlevania III 1 6
Championship Bowling 1 6
Championship Pool 1 6
Chip And Dale Rescue Rangers 1 6
Chip And Dale Rescue Rangers 2 1 6
Contra 1 6
Contra Force 1 6
Chubby Cherub 1 6
Cliffhanger 2 12
Clu Clu Land 1 6
Color a Dinosaur 2 12
Cool World 1 6
Conan 1 6
Cowboy Kid 1 6
Crystalis 1 6
Darkwing Duck 1 6
Day Dreamin' Davey 1 6
Die Hard 1 6
Destiny Of An Emperor 1 6
Disney Talespin 1 6
Donkey Kong 3 1 6
Donkey Kong Arcade 2 12
Donkey Kong Jr. 1 6
Donkey Kong Jr. Math 1 6
Dragon Warrior 2 2 12
Dragon Warrior 3 1 6
Dragon Warrior 4 2 12
Double Dragon 3 1 6
Duck Hunt 1 6
Duck Tales 1 6
Duck Tales 2 2 12
Dungeon Magic 1 6
Dusty Diamond All Star Softball 1 6
Excitebike 2 12
Faria 1 6
Final Fantasy 1 6
Fire & Ice 1 6
Fist of the North Star 1 6
Flight Of The Intruder 1 6
Flintstones: Rescue of Dino & Hoppy 3 18
Flintstones 2: Surprise at Dinosaur Peak 2 12
Freedom Force 1 6
Gargoyle's Quest 2 1 6
Gemfire 1 6
Ghost & Goblins 2 12
Ghostbusters 2 1 6
GI Joe Taxan 1 6
Gilligan's Island 1 6
Golf 1 6
Godzilla II 1 6
Gradius 1 6
Great Waldo Search 1 6
Guardian Legend 1 6
Guerrilla War 1 6
Gum Shoe 2 12
Gun Smoke 1 6
Gyromite 1 6
Hogans Alley 1 6
Home Alone II 1 6
Ice Climber 1 6
Ice Hockey 2 12
Ikari Warriors 2 12
Ikari Warriors 2 1 6
Ikari Warriors 3 1 6
Indiana Jones Last Crusades - UBISOFT 1 6
Iron Tank 1 6
Jimmy Connors Tennis 1 6
Jungle Book 2 12
Jurassic Park 1 6
Karnov 1 6
Kid Icarus 2 12
Kid Klown 2 12
Kid Kool 1 6
Kid Niki Radical Ninja 1 6
Kings Quest 5 2 12
Kiwi Kraze 1 6
Krusty's Fun house 1 6
Kung Fu 2 12
Legacy Of The Wizard 1 6
Legend of Kage 1 6
Lemmings 1 6
Lethal Weapon 1 6
Lode Runner 1 6
Lone Ranger 1 6
Life Force 1 6
Little Sampson 2 12
MC Kids 2 12
Mach Rider 1 6
Magician 1 6
Mario Bros. Arcade 2 12
Mario Time Machine 2 12
Mega Man 2 12
Mega Man 2 1 6
Mega Man 3 1 6
Mega Man 4 1 6
Mega Man 5 1 6
Mega Man 6 2 12
Metal Gear 1 6
Metal Gear Snakes Revenge 1 6
Metal Storm 1 6
Metroid 1 6
Mickey's Adventure in Numberland 1 6
Mickey Mousecapade 1 6
Mighty Bomb Jack 2 12
Mighty Final Fight 1 6
Mike Tyson Punchout 2 12
Monster In My Pocket 1 6
Motor City Patrol 1 6
M.U.S.C.L.E. 1 6
Ninja Gaiden 3 1 6
Ninja Kid 1 6
Panic Resteraunt 2 12
Paperboy 2 2 12
Peter Pan & the Pirates 1 6
Pirates 1 6
Popeye 1 6
Power Blade 2 1 6
Power Punch 2 3 18
Prince Of Persia 1 6
Pro Sport Hockey 2 12
Rad Racer 1 6
Rally Bike 1 6
RC Pro Am 1 6
RC Pro Am II 1 6
Ren & Stimpy Buckaroos 1 6
Renegade 1 6
Rescue Rangers 2 12
Rescue Rangers 2 1 6
River City Ransom 1 6
Robin Hood Prince of Thieves 2 12
Rockin Kats 1 6
Rocky and Bullwinkle 1 6
Romance of the Three Kingdoms 1 6
Romance of the Three Kingdoms II 1 6
Rygar 1 6
Sesame Street 123/ABC 1 6
Shadowgate 3 18
Slalom 1 6
Snake Rattle & Roll 1 6
Snakes Revenge 1 6
Snow Brothers 2 12
Soccer 2 12
Soloman's Key 1 6
Spelunker 1 6
Spy Hunter 2 12
Sqoon 3 18
Stadium Events 3 18
Star Force 1 6
Star Tropics 2 2 12
Star Soldier 1 6
Stinger 1 6
Street Cop 1 6
Super C 1 6
Super Mario 1 6
Super Mario 2 1 6
Super Mario 3 1 6
Super Pitfall 1 6
Super Spy Hunter 1 6
Super Team Games 2 12
Swamp Thing 1 6
Target Renegade 1 6
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III 1 6
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Tournament Fighters 4 24
Tennis 1 6
Terra Cresta 1 6
The Jetsons 1 6
The Punisher 1 6
The Simpson's: Bartman Meets Radioactive Man 3 18
The Simpson's: Bart VS the Space Mutants 1 6
The Simpson's: Bart VS The World 2 12
Thunder & Lightning 2 12
Time Lord 2 12
To The Earth 2 12
Tom and Jerry 1 6
Ultima: Quest of the Avatar 1 6
Ultima: Warriors of Destiny 1 6
Unchartered Waters 1 6
Uninvited 2 12
Urban Champion 1 6
Volleyball 1 6
Wacky Races 1 6
Wario's Woods 1 6
Wally Bear 1 6
Wayne's World 1 6
Widget 1 6
Winter Games 1 6
Wild Gunman 1 6
Wrecking Crew 1 6
Zelda Gold 2 12
Zelda II Gold 2 12

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