Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

1 hour ago, jonebone said:

 

And actually kudos for this recommendation.  Need to do more research but this is exactly the type of stock I love to grab.  The "big name" companies that are beaten up and selling at steep discounts to prior highs.  I grabbed some Mattel (MAT) and Jakks Pacific (JAKK) last year that have doubled and Rite Aid fits my pattern.  I'll look into them more for sure.

I'd be interested to know what you see in Jakks -- looks like they lose money hand over fist, and I'm not aware of what IP they own outright (versus Hasbro and Mattel both owning a number of major and enduring IPs).

And Mattel has been getting their lunch eaten by Hasbro, IMO.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

3 minutes ago, RH said:

I put a $2 order for 50 shares into AMC.  I don't know if will get that low any time soon, but if it does within the next weeks, I'll catch it. 

 

If you're willing to double the stake to 100 shares, isn't that the ideal situation to sell a cash-secured put?

[RH | 4,890]

3 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

If you're willing to double the stake to 100 shares, isn't that the ideal situation to sell a cash-secured put?

I'm not familiar enough with options.  I have read a little bit about them on Investopedia (I assume they are good source since they are basically an encyclopedia of trading and investing details) and Ameritrade allows me to put an order on the books, say if I want to trade after hours, and it allows me to set the period for which I want the order to stand.

In a TL;DR, can I get a reason why a PUT is a better option (no pun intended)?

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

14 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

If you're willing to double the stake to 100 shares, isn't that the ideal situation to sell a cash-secured put?

 

9 minutes ago, RH said:

I'm not familiar enough with options.  I have read a little bit about them on Investopedia (I assume they are good source since they are basically an encyclopedia of trading and investing details) and Ameritrade allows me to put an order on the books, say if I want to trade after hours, and it allows me to set the period for which I want the order to stand.

In a TL;DR, can I get a reason why a PUT is a better option (no pun intended)?

I think he's referring to the fact that a puts are sold in 100 share increments, making it available to you as a bundle of 100 shares as soon as your price hits.

[RH | 4,890]

1 minute ago, DoctorEncore said:

 

I think he's referring to the fact that a puts are sold in 100 share increments, making it available to you as a bundle of 100 shares as soon as your price hits.

Ah, that makes sense and might be worth considering.  I do need to triple-check what I need to do.  I know when I click over to the Options tab, it's way more than choosing a stock, a price, and a timeframe for the order to stay open.  Clicking the wrong button might have dire consequences.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

13 minutes ago, RH said:

I'm not familiar enough with options.  I have read a little bit about them on Investopedia (I assume they are good source since they are basically an encyclopedia of trading and investing details) and Ameritrade allows me to put an order on the books, say if I want to trade after hours, and it allows me to set the period for which I want the order to stand.

In a TL;DR, can I get a reason why a PUT is a better option (no pun intended)?

 

"Selling" a put is an option that pays you a premium (from the person that "bought the put") while you offer a guarantee to buy the shares at the strike price of the put.

If you have an entry price in mind, and you're not going to change your mind within the time period you'd hold the option, it effectively lets you lower your cost basis by the premium you get paid for selling the put in the first place.

The "downsides" are:

(1) your price is never met, so the put buyer never exercises, and you never get your shares

(2) the price goes way below your target and you get stuck with the put buyers exercising at your option price, where instead you'd have been able to buy at a lower price in the first place.

 

EDIT and yes, my point was that if you are targeting a specific lower buying price, AND you're willing to buy 100 shares (i.e. the number of stock associated with a single options contract) -- the "selling a cash secured put" would be worth researching

Edited February 5, 2021 by arch_8ngel

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

7 minutes ago, RH said:

Ah, that makes sense and might be worth considering.  I do need to triple-check what I need to do.  I know when I click over to the Options tab, it's way more than choosing a stock, a price, and a timeframe for the order to stay open.  Clicking the wrong button might have dire consequences.

Yeah, you're talking about a limit buy, which is totally fine. @arch_8ngel is just providing you with a way to make a little premium on the purchase if that specific cash secured put is available. It can be a smart way to get into buying stocks if you're okay with having that money tied up while you wait.

[Tulpa | 3,488]

1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

I'd be interested to know what you see in Jakks -- looks like they lose money hand over fist, and I'm not aware of what IP they own outright (versus Hasbro and Mattel both owning a number of major and enduring IPs).

 

I'm actually shocked that Jakks still exists. Loved their plug n plays back in the day, as goofy video game keepsakes.

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

1 hour ago, Tulpa said:

I'm actually shocked that Jakks still exists. Loved their plug n plays back in the day, as goofy video game keepsakes.

You can thank me for buying the first 6 waves of World of Nintendo toys

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

Cresco Labs (CRLBF) may be a good low key marijuana stock to keep an eye on. Seem to be getting more and more attention lately and are up almost 1000% in the last year. I took a stake this morning, probably for a long term hold.

Edited February 8, 2021 by DoctorEncore

[Hammerfestus | 3,819]

Anyone in on $APHA?  I’m sure the gap will narrow before that merger but $TLRY is going berserk and that is looking like a pretty tasty discount. 

[jonebone | 1,307]

1 hour ago, Hammerfestus said:

Anyone in on $APHA?  I’m sure the gap will narrow before that merger but $TLRY is going berserk and that is looking like a pretty tasty discount. 

Ugh... I rode the ACB wave from $10.50 to $14 and sold last week because I was scared going into Feb 11 earnings.  I thought charts looked bullish but I think the AMC play caused me to lock in some profits premature.  Of course it's at $20 a few days later.  I think that sector has room to run but I'm not buying at highs now.

Also, the RAD pick in the thread was good, I passed over it though and started a WBE (Walgreens) position instead.  I think RAD and WBE have some room to run as well.

[Gloves | 11,759]

I'm down a dollar so far.

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

1 hour ago, Hammerfestus said:

Anyone in on $APHA?  I’m sure the gap will narrow before that merger but $TLRY is going berserk and that is looking like a pretty tasty discount. 

I'm staying away from the Reddit stocks due to volatility, but I think CRLBF has a ton of room to run. It's a bit more stable with some analyst recommendations and has been creeping up daily. Trading activity has been going up by about 500k per day since Friday, so it seems to be attracting some attention. I'm up about 15% since Monday and have a significant stake. I want to hold for the long haul, but it's tempting to cash out with how the market has been.

I've been trying to figure out which company will become the dominant player in the country when weed is legal nationally. That will be a huge moneymaker for the next ten years. I'm just hoping it isn't one of the tobacco giants.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

5 hours ago, jonebone said:

 

Also, the RAD pick in the thread was good, I passed over it though and started a WBE (Walgreens) position instead.  I think RAD and WBE have some room to run as well.

WBA (Walgreens Boots Alliance) -- WBE is a paper products company.

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

Novo Nordisk (NVO) is another one to watch today. They have a diabetes drug called semaglutide which just completed a trial as a weight loss drug with fantastic results. Patients saw a weight loss around 15% of their total body weight with the drug. This is miles better than other weight loss drugs which average weight loss in the range of 5-10% of EXCESS body weight. 15% of TOTAL body weight is much higher than 10% of EXCESS body weight, so this could be a game changer. We'll have to see how the story spreads in the media today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/health/obesity-weight-loss-drug-semaglutide.html

[Richardhead | 2,813]

On 2/10/2021 at 5:14 PM, DoctorEncore said:

I'm staying away from the Reddit stocks due to volatility, but I think CRLBF has a ton of room to run. It's a bit more stable with some analyst recommendations and has been creeping up daily. Trading activity has been going up by about 500k per day since Friday, so it seems to be attracting some attention. I'm up about 15% since Monday and have a significant stake. I want to hold for the long haul, but it's tempting to cash out with how the market has been.

I've been trying to figure out which company will become the dominant player in the country when weed is legal nationally. That will be a huge moneymaker for the next ten years. I'm just hoping it isn't one of the tobacco giants.

Maybe look at a company called Columbia care?

[ThePhleo | 2,184]

Just cashed out my AMC & GME and stopped my losses.

I put in $1000 in play money and an additional $250 of pocket money for a total of $1250 “invested”

I’m walking away with $430 left in my pocket.

 

Lesson cost: $820

Lesson learned: If your buddies, brothers, and even your LITERAL grandmother are talking about it then the time to invest has already passed you by. Memes don’t make dreams.

New Direction (Option A): Stay invested in the stock market and learn more...Diversify my investments. Put 50% in “Low Risk” stocks, 30% in “Medium Risk”, 15% in “High Risk”, and YOLO with the remaining 5%.

New Direction (Option B): Get out of the stock market until I buy a house this fall and wait until I settle in... honestly I feel the entire market is way too high anyway and is being artificiality propped up. Eventually the government teet of free money will dry up and then what.

Edited February 12, 2021 by ThePhleo

[DefaultGen | 5,394]

10 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

Just cashed out my AMC & GME and stopped my losses.

I put in $1000 in play money and an additional $250 of pocket money for a total of $1250 “invested”

I’m walking away with $430 left in my pocket.

 

Lesson cost: $820

Lesson learned: If your buddies, brothers, and even your LITERAL grandmother are talking about it then the time to invest has already passed you by. Memes don’t make dreams.

New Direction (Option A): Stay invested in the stock market and learn more...Diversify my investments. Put 50% in “Low Riak” stocks, 30% in “Medium Risk”, 15% in “High Risk”, and YOLO with the remaining 5%.

New Direction (Option B): Get out of the stock market until I buy a house this fall and wait until I settle in... honestly I feel the entire market is way too high anyway and is being artificiality propped up. Eventually the government teet of free money will dry up and then what.

You did not consult your financial advisor about this.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

10 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

 

New Direction (Option A): Stay invested in the stock market and learn more...Diversify my investments. Put 50% in “Low Riak” stocks, 30% in “Medium Risk”, 15% in “High Risk”, and YOLO with the remaining 5%.

New Direction (Option B): Get out of the stock market until I buy a house this fall and wait until I settle in... honestly I feel the entire market is way too high anyway and is being artificiality propped up. Eventually the government teet of free money will dry up and then what.

If it is money you need for a major event/purchase THIS YEAR then it should NOT be in the market.

Market time horizons should be 5 years MINIMUM.

[RH | 4,890]

19 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

Just cashed out my AMC & GME and stopped my losses.

I put in $1000 in play money and an additional $250 of pocket money for a total of $1250 “invested”

I’m walking away with $430 left in my pocket.

 

Lesson cost: $820

Lesson learned: If your buddies, brothers, and even your LITERAL grandmother are talking about it then the time to invest has already passed you by. Memes don’t make dreams.

New Direction (Option A): Stay invested in the stock market and learn more...Diversify my investments. Put 50% in “Low Riak” stocks, 30% in “Medium Risk”, 15% in “High Risk”, and YOLO with the remaining 5%.

New Direction (Option B): Get out of the stock market until I buy a house this fall and wait until I settle in... honestly I feel the entire market is way too high anyway and is being artificiality propped up. Eventually the government teet of free money will dry up and then what.

I actually got in on AMC yesterday. In the morning, I put a buy order in for 50 @ $5.50. By luck, that was the practical floor of the day.

I made this decision because $5.50 seemed to be the short term resistance point. I'm not sure if that is the right term, but sales were getting buy-up pressure in that range and in the past 24 hours, it's seemed profitable.

However, my gut still tells me that this stock hasn't bottomed out. I changed my $2.00 buy order to a $3 buy order and I think that's a more realistic floor.

So why would I have bought yesterday when I still think it could go lower? It's because I am hedging my bets against whether I am right or not. If I try to wait for a $3/share purchase, my day may not come. Maybe $4 will be the low for the next year and I will have lost any chance to get in.  My gut also tells me that we might already be at the floor, meaning, $5-5.50 might be the lowest we see for a while.  Or rather, my gut tells me that for the low, $3 is likely about the lowest it will go, and $5.00ish might be the highest that the low might be for a while. When I use my "gut", I've been looking at company financials, considering their future potential if COVID restrictions ease up, and I pay attention to chart technicals. 

I'm getting in what I feel is the high-end of a possible low, while saving some reserve funds for a future purchase if I'm wrong, and the stock dips further.  In the end, I plan to hold this for a while, so I'm not worried about short term losses (1-3 months) so long as the company seems stable enough to rebound when the future looks brighter.

If you can learn to continually learn about investments, pay attention to history and sell when people buy and buy when they sell, you can be profitable. This was my strategy in crypto and the movements are slower with stocks but so far, the same general strategies are working well.

Edited February 12, 2021 by RH

[ThePhleo | 2,184]

1 hour ago, DefaultGen said:

You did not consult your financial advisor about this.

He wasn't up, and went to sleep early. I couldn't have wait any longer.

 

 

59 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

If it is money you need for a major event/purchase THIS YEAR then it should NOT be in the market.

Market time horizons should be 5 years MINIMUM.

Yeah, I've got a little nest egg that I wanted to take 20%-25% out and try and grow but to be honestly I can sell my collection "instantly"... I don't think the markets can grow it faster than that :V

My 5-year plan is to buy a house this fall, maybe the Summer if rates start to skyrocket again. Also, I want to do a 15-year mortgage on it, but everyone of my family members are telling me to go 30-year and treat it like a 15-year instead just in case business slows down.

Edited February 12, 2021 by ThePhleo

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

3 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

My 5-year plan is to buy a house this fall, maybe the Summer if rates start to skyrocket again. Also, I want to do a 15-year mortgage on it, but everyone of my family members are telling me to go 30-year and treat it like a 15-year instead just in case business slows down.

At today's very low interest rates, a 30 year mortgage PAID ON SCHEDULE and investing the difference, over the long run, is most likely to be the best bet.

You would even get a better 20-year risk free return buying EE-bonds than you will paying your 30 year fixed rate mortgage early, assuming you're getting the best available interest rates.

[Gloves | 11,759]

OMG! I'M UP $5!

STONKS GO BRRRRRR! 

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,104]

55 minutes ago, Gloves said:

OMG! I'M UP $5!

STONKS GO BRRRRRR!