scaryice | 585 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) I thought it would be fun if we could have a contest here to see who can best predict the results. To keep it simple, we'll only do the first four states, and picks for all of those are due by the end of January 30th (that's because I wanted the deadline before the last big Iowa polls come out, which is probably on Friday, or Monday morning). This should be fun because you'll have to guess how the results in Iowa, for example, will affect the later states while making your picks. Rules: Pick the top 4 finishers in order, in each state. You'll then be judged on how your picks compare to the actual voting. Let's say you pick Joe Biden to finish first in Iowa, and he finishes third. You would receive 2 points for that pick, because it was two spots away from his actual finish. Here's an example of how a state's results will look: So a perfect score would be zero. Once you add up all four states' results, we'll have a contest winner. Oh, and the maximum points per pick will be 5, so you can't do any worse than that (this should help mitigate the damage if someone picks a candidate that drops out right away). Note: For Iowa, this year for the first time, they're releasing actual vote totals in addition to the delegate totals. I'll be using those raw vote totals here (the ones before any candidates with less than 15% are eliminated). Edited January 24, 2020 by scaryice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scaryice | 585 Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) Sample Ballot (copy this post to make your picks!) Iowa caucus (February 3) 1. 2. 3. 4. New Hampshire primary (February 11) 1. 2. 3. 4. Nevada caucus (February 22) 1. 2. 3. 4. South Carolina primary (February 29) 1. 2. 3. 4. TIEBREAKER: How many total votes will the leading votegetter have through these four states? List of Candidates Michael Bennet Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg (not on NH, NV, SC ballots) Pete Buttigieg John Delaney Tulsi Gabbard Amy Klobuchar Deval Patrick Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer Elizabeth Warren Andrew Yang Edited January 30, 2020 by scaryice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estil | 1,264 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 What do we win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffeewithmrsaturn | 100 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 21 minutes ago, Estil said: What do we win? Hopefully a president that doesn't lose by 3 million votes and still get to be president! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estil | 1,264 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, coffeewithmrsaturn said: Hopefully a president that doesn't lose by 3 million votes and still get to be president! I see what you mean, we don't want a situation for example, a World Series where a team scores the most runs in World Series history (55 vs 27), gets way more hits (91-60) and outbats them by a wide margin (.338 to .256), and even hits over twice as many home runs (10-4)...yet ends up losing because the other team just barely squeaks by with four wins (by 2, 1, 3, and 1 run) out of seven. And I bet there were at least a few Super Bowls or NFC/AFC title games where the losing team got way more total yards of offense yet the other team barely squeaked by to win by a few points. So yes, I get what you're saying perfectly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scaryice | 585 Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Estil said: What do we win? 4 years worth of bragging rights! Edited January 24, 2020 by scaryice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrobins | 1,725 Moderator · Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Ok I’ll take a crack at it... Scrobins Ballot Iowa caucus (February 3) 1. Biden 2. Sanders 3. Warren 4. Buttigieg New Hampshire primary (February 11) 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Warren 4. Buttigieg Nevada caucus (February 22) 1. Biden 2. Sanders 3. Warren 4. Steyer South Carolina primary (February 29) 1. Biden 2. Sanders 3. Warren 4. Steyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quest4Nes | 376 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) can we choose for them all to get a last place tie? Edited January 25, 2020 by Quest4Nes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estil | 1,264 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 8 hours ago, scaryice said: 4 years worth of bragging rights! Oh I was hoping we'd win cash prizes or gift cards or free retro games or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makar | 1,946 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Whoever the super delegates back wins. Doesn't seem like they've made up their mind yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scaryice | 585 Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 11 hours ago, Makar said: Whoever the super delegates back wins. Doesn't seem like they've made up their mind yet though. People complain about super delegates, but they've never overturned the will of the voters. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had more pledged delegates than Bernie Sanders, and in 2008, Barack Obama had more pledged delegates than Hillary. Also, this time around, their influence has been reduced - they won't even vote unless no candidate gets a majority of delegates, and a second ballot is required at the convention. If you're talking about which candidate has the support of the party, it definitely appears to be Biden so far. You can check out 538's endorsement tracker here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/ Although, getting the most endorsements didn't help Marco Rubio win the Republican nomination four years ago. Anyway, I'd like to keep this thread focused on the horserace and not devolve into the usual partisan bickering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makar | 1,946 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 it's a 4 way race. Biden, Bernie, warren, and buttigieg. Should be interesting to see who the media ultimately decide to back. They don't seem to have one sorted out yet which is interesting this late into the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scaryice | 585 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 (edited) Bump, you have less than 48 hours to make your picks! We've had some interesting developments in the past few days. It seems like Bernie Sanders is rising in the polls. However, Joe Biden is still the national leader. Can he hold on in Iowa? And also, Elizabeth Warren was endorsed by the Des Moines Register, the biggest paper in the state. Does she have a shot there as well? Predicting Iowa correctly is key, since there's likely to be a nice bump for whoever beats wins or beats their expectations. Edited January 29, 2020 by scaryice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scaryice | 585 Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 (edited) Today's the last day to make your picks! I'll make mine here: Iowa caucus (February 3) 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Warren 4. Klobuchar I feel confident than Buttigieg is going to crash out very quickly. Klobuchar seems to have more momentum, so I'll take her to snipe fourth and win the title of "#2 moderate." As for first, given his recent rise in the polls and the greater enthusiasm for his campaign, I'm going to pick Sanders first. However, since I'm basing this on the initial vote (as I explained in the rules), it's possible than the delegate winner could be Biden given how close this is. Given that second choices matter, I could see that happening since Sanders isn't the second place choice of very many voters (so you would expect Biden to rise once the non-viable candidates are eliminated). I do feel also that Warren will do better than expected, but I'm not ready to pick her in the top two. Maybe once the final polls come out this weekend, it'll be a different story. Of course, I set the deadline for tonight so I'd have to predict before having that info. New Hampshire primary (February 11) 1. Sanders 2. Warren 3. Biden 4. Klobuchar If Sanders wins Iowa, then I have to pick him to win NH as well where he's stronger. Warren could do better here since she's from neighboring Massachusetts. But so is Sanders, so that kind of cancels that out. I was going to pick the same order as Iowa, but I'll guess I'll pick Warren second to back up that logic somewhat. Nevada caucus (February 22) 1. Warren 2. Biden 3. Sanders 4. Steyer At this point, if Sanders has won the first two states, all guns will be pointed in his direction. That could provide an opening for Warren to capitalize. Plus, Sanders lost Nevada four years ago after winning NH, so I think he'll be weaker here. I'll pick Steyer for fourth like Scrobins did since both Buttigieg/Klobuchar could be out by now. South Carolina primary (February 29) 1. Biden 2. Warren 3. Sanders 4. Steyer If Biden hasn't won any states (or even just barely won Iowa), this will be his last stand. He should win if he's been reasonably competitive before this, and also if Buttigieg/Klobuchar haven't passed him. His strength with black voters can give him the victory, and momentum going into Super Tuesday where he's likely to be strong. That would lead to a very interesting three way race with Biden/Sanders/Warren, where you'd have to think Biden would be favored, although the addition of Bloomberg would make things complicated. I'll say those four are the only ones standing after South Carolina, and maybe Yang as well (although he has no chance of doing anything). Like any political junkie, I'm secretly hoping for a contested convention, and this would be a good scenario for that (but I know it'll never happen). TIEBREAKER: How many total votes will the leading votegetter have through these four states? 405,000 Edited January 30, 2020 by scaryice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
themisfit138 | 523 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 If Bloomburg gets the Democrat nomination. He has a real chance of becoming President. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captmorgandrinker | 1,649 Administrator · Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 On 1/24/2020 at 8:02 PM, Estil said: Oh I was hoping we'd win cash prizes or gift cards or free retro games or something Only if Bernie wins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart010 | 1,707 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Yang 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefaultGen | 5,401 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The top 3 odds-on democrats are 77, 77, and 78. Trump is a youthful 73 and doesn't know how to close an umbrella. I wouldn't vote for a young candidate for youths sake, but man we are all collectively ready to leave the fate of our country to a leader who will certainly be in cognitive decline over their term. I would vote for the candidates to have to retake their drivers test yearly so they don't kill anyone on the road sooner than I'd vote them into the highest office. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefaultGen | 5,401 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Iowa: 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Booty Judge 4. Warren NH 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Booty Judge 4. Warren Nevada 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Warren 4. Booty Judge SC 1. Biden 2. Sanders 3. Warren 4. Steyer TIEBREAKER: 450,001 (I literally have no idea) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefaultGen | 5,401 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Oh no John Delaney dropped out. Did that bust everyone's brackets? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kguillemette | 1,544 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 All i know is that in 10 days, all these clowns will finally leave town and quit bothering me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nugfish | 652 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 7 hours ago, Kguillemette said: All i know is that in 10 days, all these clowns will finally leave town and quit bothering me. Haha. I live in Iowa and I think this year is the most I have seen one party campaign in my area. I have never been so ready to have the phone # I dont recognize to be informing me my car's warranty is expiring... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodysGameRoom | 2,008 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 What a shit show in Iowa. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nugfish | 652 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 36 minutes ago, CodysGameRoom said: What a shit show in Iowa. Yikes. With the DNC doing their best to oust Bernie, it's easy to assume the worst... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefaultGen | 5,401 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, Nugfish said: With the DNC doing their best to oust Bernie, it's easy to assume the worst... Considering at least some precincts successfully used the app, I wouldn't be surprised if the "coding issue" was just that the mobile app wasn't dummy proof enough for old people to use. My parents can't hang up a Facetime call on short notice, let alone use an unfamiliar app. All just another great reason to keep electronics and the internet out of elections. This is a great example of a screw up to point to for the actual voting security crowd (not the voter suppression "voting security" crowd) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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