Jump to content
IGNORED

Democratic 2020 primaries prediction contest! (first 4 states only)


scaryice
 Share

Recommended Posts

I thought it would be fun if we could have a contest here to see who can best predict the results. To keep it simple, we'll only do the first four states, and picks for all of those are due by the end of January 30th (that's because I wanted the deadline before the last big Iowa polls come out, which is probably on Friday, or Monday morning). This should be fun because you'll have to guess how the results in Iowa, for example, will affect the later states while making your picks.

Rules:

Pick the top 4 finishers in order, in each state. You'll then be judged on how your picks compare to the actual voting. Let's say you pick Joe Biden to finish first in Iowa, and he finishes third. You would receive 2 points for that pick, because it was two spots away from his actual finish. Here's an example of how a state's results will look:

image.png.ad88ce90c4c3d53fbaf79708bf66b6f9.png

 

So a perfect score would be zero. Once you add up all four states' results, we'll have a contest winner. Oh, and the maximum points per pick will be 5, so you can't do any worse than that (this should help mitigate the damage if someone picks a candidate that drops out right away).

Note: For Iowa, this year for the first time, they're releasing actual vote totals in addition to the delegate totals. I'll be using those raw vote totals here (the ones before any candidates with less than 15% are eliminated).

Edited by scaryice
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sample Ballot

(copy this post to make your picks!)

 

 

Iowa caucus (February 3)

1.

2.

3.

4.

 

New Hampshire primary (February 11)

1.

2.

3.

4.

 

Nevada caucus (February 22)

1.

2.

3.

4.

 

South Carolina primary (February 29)

1.

2.

3.

4.

 

TIEBREAKER: How many total votes will the leading votegetter have through these four states?

 

 

 

List of Candidates

Michael Bennet
Joe Biden
Michael Bloomberg (not on NH, NV, SC ballots)
Pete Buttigieg
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard
Amy Klobuchar
Deval Patrick
Bernie Sanders
Tom Steyer
Elizabeth Warren
Andrew Yang

Edited by scaryice
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, coffeewithmrsaturn said:

Hopefully a president that doesn't lose by 3 million votes and still get to be president!

I see what you mean, we don't want a situation for example, a World Series where a team scores the most runs in World Series history (55 vs 27), gets way more hits (91-60) and outbats them by a wide margin (.338 to .256), and even hits over twice as many home runs (10-4)...yet ends up losing because the other team just barely squeaks by with four wins (by 2, 1, 3, and 1 run) out of seven.

And I bet there were at least a few Super Bowls or NFC/AFC title games where the losing team got way more total yards of offense yet the other team barely squeaked by to win by a few points.

So yes, I get what you're saying perfectly.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Homebrew Team · Posted

Ok I’ll take a crack at it...

Scrobins Ballot

Iowa caucus (February 3)

1. Biden

2. Sanders

3. Warren

4. Buttigieg 

 

New Hampshire primary (February 11)

1. Sanders

2. Biden

3. Warren

4. Buttigieg 

 

Nevada caucus (February 22)

1. Biden

2. Sanders

3. Warren

4. Steyer 

 

South Carolina primary (February 29)

1. Biden

2. Sanders

3. Warren

4. Steyer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Makar said:

Whoever the super delegates back wins. Doesn't seem like they've made up their mind yet though.

 

People complain about super delegates, but they've never overturned the will of the voters. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had more pledged delegates than Bernie Sanders, and in 2008, Barack Obama had more pledged delegates than Hillary. Also, this time around, their influence has been reduced - they won't even vote unless no candidate gets a majority of delegates, and a second ballot is required at the convention.

If you're talking about which candidate has the support of the party, it definitely appears to be Biden so far. You can check out 538's endorsement tracker here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/

Although, getting the most endorsements didn't help Marco Rubio win the Republican nomination four years ago.

Anyway, I'd like to keep this thread focused on the horserace and not devolve into the usual partisan bickering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bump, you have less than 48 hours to make your picks!

We've had some interesting developments in the past few days. It seems like Bernie Sanders is rising in the polls. However, Joe Biden is still the national leader. Can he hold on in Iowa? And also, Elizabeth Warren was endorsed by the Des Moines Register, the biggest paper in the state. Does she have a shot there as well? Predicting Iowa correctly is key, since there's likely to be a nice bump for whoever beats wins or beats their expectations.

Edited by scaryice
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today's the last day to make your picks! I'll make mine here:

 

Iowa caucus (February 3)

1. Sanders

2. Biden

3. Warren

4. Klobuchar

I feel confident than Buttigieg is going to crash out very quickly. Klobuchar seems to have more momentum, so I'll take her to snipe fourth and win the title of "#2 moderate." As for first, given his recent rise in the polls and the greater enthusiasm for his campaign, I'm going to pick Sanders first. However, since I'm basing this on the initial vote (as I explained in the rules), it's possible than the delegate winner could be Biden given how close this is. Given that second choices matter, I could see that happening since Sanders isn't the second place choice of very many voters (so you would expect Biden to rise once the non-viable candidates are eliminated). I do feel also that Warren will do better than expected, but I'm not ready to pick her in the top two. Maybe once the final polls come out this weekend, it'll be a different story. Of course, I set the deadline for tonight so I'd have to predict before having that info.

 

New Hampshire primary (February 11)

1. Sanders

2. Warren

3. Biden

4. Klobuchar

If Sanders wins Iowa, then I have to pick him to win NH as well where he's stronger. Warren could do better here since she's from neighboring Massachusetts. But so is Sanders, so that kind of cancels that out. I was going to pick the same order as Iowa, but I'll guess I'll pick Warren second to back up that logic somewhat.

 

Nevada caucus (February 22)

1. Warren

2. Biden

3. Sanders

4. Steyer

At this point, if Sanders has won the first two states, all guns will be pointed in his direction. That could provide an opening for Warren to capitalize. Plus, Sanders lost Nevada four years ago after winning NH, so I think he'll be weaker here. I'll pick Steyer for fourth like Scrobins did since both Buttigieg/Klobuchar could be out by now.

 

South Carolina primary (February 29)

1. Biden

2. Warren

3. Sanders

4. Steyer

If Biden hasn't won any states (or even just barely won Iowa), this will be his last stand. He should win if he's been reasonably competitive before this, and also if Buttigieg/Klobuchar haven't passed him. His strength with black voters can give him the victory, and momentum going into Super Tuesday where he's likely to be strong. That would lead to a very interesting three way race with Biden/Sanders/Warren, where you'd have to think Biden would be favored, although the addition of Bloomberg would make things complicated. I'll say those four are the only ones standing after South Carolina, and maybe Yang as well (although he has no chance of doing anything). Like any political junkie, I'm secretly hoping for a contested convention, and this would be a good scenario for that (but I know it'll never happen).

 

TIEBREAKER: How many total votes will the leading votegetter have through these four states?

405,000

 

 

 

 

Edited by scaryice
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The top 3 odds-on democrats are 77, 77, and 78. Trump is a youthful 73 and doesn't know how to close an umbrella. I wouldn't vote for a young candidate for youths sake, but man we are all collectively ready to leave the fate of our country to a leader who will certainly be in cognitive decline over their term. I would vote for the candidates to have to retake their drivers test yearly so they don't kill anyone on the road sooner than I'd vote them into the highest office.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Kguillemette said:

All i know is that in 10 days, all these clowns will finally leave town and quit bothering me.

Haha. I live in Iowa and I think this year is the most I have seen one party campaign in my area. I have never been so ready to have the phone # I dont recognize to be informing me my car's warranty is expiring...

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Nugfish said:

With the DNC doing their best to oust Bernie, it's easy to assume the worst...

Considering at least some precincts successfully used the app, I wouldn't be surprised if the "coding issue" was just that the mobile app wasn't dummy proof enough for old people to use. My parents can't hang up a Facetime call on short notice, let alone use an unfamiliar app. All just another great reason to keep electronics and the internet out of elections. This is a great example of a screw up to point to for the actual voting security crowd (not the voter suppression "voting security" crowd)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...