Are we on the brink of World War III?

[Tulpa | 3,492]

40 minutes ago, Estil said:

I mean yeah, I get people have different ideas of right and wrong and all that but I still don't for the life of me understand how Putin could possibly think this move will make him look good in any way

He's not playing to the global stage. He's playing to the Russian people.*

Russia took it on the chin in terms of reputation when the Soviet Union collapsed, and Boris Yeltsin basically drunk drove the country for his term. So here comes Putin, an ex-KGB spy and martial artist who plays the tough guy role well, promising to bring back the Russian empire. Of course, everyone forgets that the Russian empire sucked and the USSR wasn't much better, but, well, some people tend to fall for an authoritarian who promises to solve all their problems and punish their enemies.

 

*Well, some of them. Others aren't happy that he picked a fight. But I'm sure he'll jail those people in due time.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Tulpa

[Tenjikuronin | 1,719]

[fcgamer | 4,723]

So has anyone here actually watched or gotten the thoughts of the Ukrainians, Russians, and those involved?

[Estil | 1,264]

6 hours ago, MrWunderful said:

Most Giants Fans like Myself love Barry Bonds. So not “everyone”. 
 

Met him at the Olympic Club when I was golfing with my Cousin in Law and he was a great guy. 

Well he sure wouldn't love you back, that's for sure!  But yeah, hopefully he's had some humble pie since then and mellowed out.  Hopefully...

[Estil | 1,264]

6 hours ago, Tulpa said:

...some people tend to fall for an authoritarian who promises to solve all their problems and punish their enemies.

Let me guess by enemies they mean those whose views are too different from their own.

[spacepup | 2,404]

7 hours ago, fcgamer said:

So has anyone here actually watched or gotten the thoughts of the Ukrainians, Russians, and those involved?

I have been talking to colleagues in Russia and Ukraine both actually.  It's a sad situation, because their comments were quite similar (the PEOPLE, not the institution/government).  All who I've talked to, in both countries, were shocked and disappointed/concerned with the events.  

I was talking last night with someone who lives in Russia, and he is worried about his own future, given what is going on.  He said his finances are a mess, lots of things are restricted, and he said that it's extremely difficult for people there to 'push back' against the institution.  

It was a very interesting conversation, and helped me to appreciate the broader damage of what is going on - there are victims in Ukraine, Russia, and everywhere.  Innocent individuals are paying the price for the reckless and dangerous decisions of those in power.

My Ukrainian friend is terrified for his family.  He doesn't feel like anyone is truly safe.  And he sounded frustrated, because some people had pointed at the bombings around country and the specific locations, and kept trying to downplay his fear and danger.  Meanwhile, he has family in various parts of the country, and is legitimately concerned for their safety.

The situation is a mess.  And at the end of the day, many innocent people are affected by this, both physically and mentally, and their lives are uncertain right now.  I feel terrible for anyone involved, and I'm just incredibly saddened to see this going on.  I hope the situation improves and that there are as few "casualties" as possible.  A lot of damage has already been done - far more than what we can see.

 

[Link | 2,709]

13 hours ago, Estil said:

I mean yeah, I get people have different ideas of right and wrong and all that but I still don't for the life of me understand how Putin could possibly think this move will make him look good in any way.

You keep saying this. He doesn't care about looking good. You know he's a bully so why is that hard to understand? 

Have some cats (and dogs, I guess) https://www.facebook.com/101040521816190/posts/451906746729564/

[fcgamer | 4,723]

3 hours ago, Link said:

You keep saying this. He doesn't care about looking good. You know he's a bully so why is that hard to understand? 

Have some cats (and dogs, I guess) https://www.facebook.com/101040521816190/posts/451906746729564/

Those pictures are so heartbreaking

[Tanooki | 4,932]

No, at least not yet.

The problem here is a pattern that Putin has put in place and his own words too.  He wants a soft restoration of the old satellite states of the old soviet union, a barrier from Europe/NATO.  He got increasingly pissed when one after another become democracies and further entered NATO.  He eventually got sneaky and put a pro-Putin puppet government into Belarus.  From there stole Crimea eight years ago, made threats ever since, and when it looked maybe like Ukraine may enter NATO he gets pissy making threats about NATO hardware, people keeping an eye on them (as if not already), and then rolls into the country after setting off some crap in the east, but instead wide spread airstrikes the cities of the country.  He's pretty clear he's saying one thing, doing another.  Claiming the Ukraine is a regime, illegitimately elected, non democratic(as if his nation is) and the works.

And what good are sanctions going to do?  The losses they're absorbing they knew would come and for years have made themselves more and more self sufficient, and then now they have China taking the wheat that europe would have to cover some more losses too.  And this is while China is bootlicking them as well not taking sides but are, with them.  It's not pretty.

What if(when) Ukraine falls, then what?  If something physically isn't done he can pull a Nazi Germany 1930s 2.0 stunt and just go after the next satellite nation as they'll be easier picking compared.  And what of China?  If they think that NATO and the US will just be pussies with sanctions and sabre rattling, I could see those arrogant aggressive shitheels take a shot at Taiwan.  THAT if anything would set off WW3.  Way too much of the west invested that COUNTRY, not a rogue island those clowns call it given it was established pre-CCP china when it was a democracy too.

[Estil | 1,264]

8 hours ago, Link said:

You keep saying this. He doesn't care about looking good. You know he's a bully so why is that hard to understand? 

And I take it he doesn't care about learning from their own history right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Afghan_War

[Estil | 1,264]

4 hours ago, fcgamer said:

Those pictures are so heartbreaking

Yes indeed, in tragic situations like this, never forget the four legged refugees  

[avatar! | 1,809]

Wise words indeed from a protester who was arrested because there's no freedom of speech in the Soviet Union Russia...

[Tulpa | 3,492]

17 hours ago, Estil said:

Let me guess by enemies they mean those whose views are too different from their own.

Yeah, some people will vote for any thug as long as he "hurts the people he needs to be hurting."

[phart010 | 1,707]

18 hours ago, fcgamer said:

So has anyone here actually watched or gotten the thoughts of the Ukrainians, Russians, and those involved?

My brother is friends with Ukrainians. I am asking him what they have to say right now.

[avatar! | 1,809]

https://theweek.com/supreme-court/1010645/ketanji-brown-jackson-was-a-public-defender-thats-good-but-itll-make

Even now, for many of us, there is a sense that what is happening is happening over there. But The Day After remains a reminder that in a world where missiles can carry unthinkable destruction around the world within minutes, that's not entirely true. You don't have to be directly threatened by the violence in Ukraine to fear what might happen next. 

[OptOut | 8,883]

6 hours ago, Tanooki said:

And what of China?  If they think that NATO and the US will just be pussies with sanctions and sabre rattling, I could see those arrogant aggressive shitheels take a shot at Taiwan.  THAT if anything would set off WW3.  Way too much of the west invested that COUNTRY, not a rogue island those clowns call it given it was established pre-CCP china when it was a democracy too.

Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has a legit signed defence pact with the USA. If Taiwan was invaded by China the US would be forced to get involved, one way or another.

It also helps that our main export is 60% of the world's microprocessors, as opposed to Ukraine's grain... We're a bigger fish, and one that won't be cooked nearly so easily, at least I hope... 

[the_wizard_666 | 1,325]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but apparently during a UN resolution on the invasion, China abstained rather than supporting their Russian allies.  On the one hand, it's a symbolic thing, but on the other, that's a huge statement.  While not outright denouncing Putin, it says that they would rather stay out of the conflict entirely rather than enrage the bulk of the world.

On top of that, apparently Hungary (another longtime supporter of Russia) has withdrawn their support from Russia over the invasion.  And Germany has sent the Ukrainians arms...while not a lot of weapons or anything (iirc 1000 anti-aircraft guns and 500 Stinger missiles), which goes contrary to their longtime stance of not providing lethal aid to external combatants.  And one of my favourite bits - a Finnish KHL team has withdrawn from the league ahead of the playoffs.  They were the second place team in the western conference, and fourth in the league, giving them a legit chance at winning it all.  Instead, they threw up a middle finger to Russia and went home.  It's likely they'll be joining the Finnish Liiga next season, but the owners are giving up all the revenue a long playoff run would have brought them in order to take a stand against Russian imperialism.  Again, it's largely symbolic, but it shows that Russia is increasingly isolated on the world stage in light of recent events.

I hope to see more of this sort of thing happening.  It shows how Russia is being isolated even from their allies, and that the bulk of the world is refusing to pull a Chamberlain and pretend Putin's gonna stop with Ukraine.

[phart010 | 1,707]

3 hours ago, phart010 said:

My brother is friends with Ukrainians. I am asking him what they have to say right now.

They didn’t think anything was actually going to happen and we’re caught off guard. Now they are in hiding and worried. 

[OptOut | 8,883]

39 minutes ago, the_wizard_666 said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but apparently during a UN resolution on the invasion, China abstained rather than supporting their Russian allies.  On the one hand, it's a symbolic thing, but on the other, that's a huge statement.  While not outright denouncing Putin, it says that they would rather stay out of the conflict entirely rather than enrage the bulk of the world.

It is a very positive sign, but actually not particularly unexpected.

Russia and China may seem like the bestest pals from a Western perspective, and they often find themselves on the same side of the fence on geopolitical issues (usually opposing Western interests, of course).

But, in reality Russian and Chinese interests are very different, and they are the fairest of fairweather friends only. China is making HUGE bank by playing into the global economy, on their own terms, and feeding their ambitions economically. 

Russia is a useful shoulder for them to lean on in times when they can stick a middle finger up to the West, but MATERIALLY, they know what side their bread is buttered.

They will keep importing oil and gas from Russia and basically continue business as usual, but there isn't a chance in hell of them risking any kind of blowback by supporting this reckless and doomed Imperialist misadventure in Ukraine.

 

Another very positive sign is that the Russians seemed to be RIDICULOUSLY ill-prepared for this invasion. It would seem they expected basically zero resistance, and that they would be able to roll Ukraine over within hours. 

The resistance of the Ukrainian forces has been impressive, to say the least, and there are reports of Russian tanks running out of gas on Ukrainian roads.

You would have thought RUSSIA of all countries would remember that Blitzkrieg doesn't work in countries the size of Ukraine, but fortunately here we are!

 

My hopes, now that Russia has been booted out of the international SWIFT banking system, are that Putin faces incredible backlash from his own political allies inside Russia, and is forced to call off the invasion.

As remarkable as it may sound, we may even be seeing the beginning of the end of Putin's leadership of Russia, depending on how hard these sanctions hit. The most epic outcome of this entire fiasco would be a free Ukraine, Putin in prison, and a CHANCE at a more free and democratic Russia when all is said and done... But that may just be hopium I'm huffing there! 

[avatar! | 1,809]

3 hours ago, OptOut said:

As remarkable as it may sound, we may even be seeing the beginning of the end of Putin's leadership of Russia, depending on how hard these sanctions hit. The most epic outcome of this entire fiasco would be a free Ukraine, Putin in prison, and a CHANCE at a more free and democratic Russia when all is said and done... But that may just be hopium I'm huffing there! 

As wonderful as that would be, I don't believe that's going to happen.

Putin still has very high approval rating in Russia. Along with suppression of the press and speech, he maintains a tight grip on the country, and he's a megalomaniac. The only real option I see for change is either a coup, which of course is unlikely although not impossible. More than likely, we need to wait until he dies before there's any (if any) real change.

[Estil | 1,264]

3 hours ago, avatar! said:

Putin still has very high approval rating in Russia. Along with suppression of the press and speech, he maintains a tight grip on the country, and he's a megalomaniac. 

Then his supposed "very high approval" rating ain't real, bub.

[Link | 2,709]

14 hours ago, Estil said:

And I take it he doesn't care about learning from their own history right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Afghan_War

You can ask these questions all day long. None of it changes the fact that the invasion is happening.

[tbone3969 | 304]

To my surprise it seems the Ukraines are holding their ground.  I have read it is costing Putin 15 billion a day to fund this invasion.  Maybe, just maybe, Putin will back down if this drags on.  One can hope.  

Edited February 27, 2022 by tbone3969

[Estil | 1,264]

30 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

To my surprise it seems the Ukraines are holding their ground.  

I'm not surprised at all...especially the ones who are old enough to remember what the USSR days were like when Ukraine and the rest of the Warsaw Pact were for all practical purposes, colonies of the Soviet Union.

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

31 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

To my surprise it seems the Ukraines are holding their ground.  I have read it is costing Putin 15 billion a day to fund this invasion.  Maybe, just maybe, Putin will back down if this drags on.  One can hope.  

I mean money isn't infinite here. Between the squeeze on their economy from all these newfound sanctions plus being bled from the invasion on Ukraine, it stands to reason that they can't afford this to drag out for too long. Granted it's impossible to know exactly how deep Putin's war chest it, and It wouldn't surprise me if he would be willing to starve his country to fund this invasion being the arrogant bastard he is. 

And even if he should be sucessful in conquering Ukraine, it seems the people aren't willing to go quietly into the night. There is a real possibility of it turning into an extended military occupation which would bleed the Russian economy further.

Point being in all this, most everyone in the world expected Ukraine to fall super quickly. It's not so inevitable anymore. There is an out in all this.